New Regulation On Bank Financial Supervision Issued A Share Market "Not Calm"

Media reports said that the supervision and management measures of commercial banks' financial services (Draft) has been issued to banks, which means that the new rules for banking financial supervision, which have been shelved since December 2014, are expected to be reopened in the near future.

The new regulation is bad for the capital market of the stock market. The extent of the impact depends on whether the new regulation is applicable to stock financing funds or new and old ones.

Because some non-standard and stock market configurations will be squeezed into the bond market, it will be good for the bond market, taking into account the mentality of financial capital chasing absolute gains, especially good for long end bonds and rating credit bonds.

They believe that if the long-term financial management funds increase the extra investment, considering that about 51% of the outsourcing funds invest in the bond market, the bond market may have more long-term benefits.

Ren Zeping and Yang Weixiao continue to maintain the judgement of interest rate debt.

For the stock market, to maintain the shock market, the three characteristics of this year's stock market are interval shocks, stock games and structural market dominance. The strategy of operation is band and wheel.

The new supervision and management method of banking financial business is to divide bank financing into basic and comprehensive categories. For basic class banks, their financial management businesses can not invest in non-standard and equity assets.

An important criterion for dividing the general and basic banks is the net capital of banks. If the net capital of commercial banks is less than 5 billion yuan, they will be divided into basic banks, and their financial businesses can not invest in the equity market and non-standard products.

According to our estimate, the red line of 5 billion yuan net capital has been arranged in the area of the agricultural firm.

The net capital of 60 city commercial banks that publicly released financial data only had 7 net capital less than 5 billion, while 16 of the 32 agricultural firms that had been announced accounted for less than 5 billion of their net capital.

Therefore, joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks should basically be in comprehensive banks, while half of them are in the comprehensive category and the other half in the basic category.

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According to the fund-raising, state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks account for about 90% of the wealth management products. In addition, city commercial banks and some agricultural businesses should have more than 90% of their financial capital divided into comprehensive banking management, asset allocation will not have much impact, while less than 10% of financial capital can not invest in equity market and non-standard products.

According to the 2015 annual report, the balance of financial products in the market is 23 trillion and 500 billion yuan, while the proportion of investment in equity assets and non-standard assets is 7.84% and 15.73%, respectively. The scale of non-standard and stock market allocation is 369 billion 700 million and 184 billion 200 million respectively.

According to this calculation, the impact of the new deal on non-standard and stock market funds is not large.

Even in the case of comprehensive banking financing, non-standard and stock market investments have been subject to small constraints.

The new regulation stipulates that commercial banks' financial products should not invest directly or indirectly in securities investment funds other than money market funds and bond funds except those with relevant investment experience, strong risk bearing capacity of private banking customers, high net worth clients and institutional clients.

According to the statistics of raising funds for 14 years' financial products, the proportion of general personal customers' products is 69.48%, while the proportion of exclusive products of institutional clients and private bank customers is 23.16% and 5.32% respectively, and the proportion of investment in equity assets is 7.84%, which affects the allocation scale of the stock market to 1 trillion and 150 billion.

On the whole, the restrictions on comprehensive banking financing and basic banking financing may affect the stock market and non-standard market by 1 trillion and 330 billion and 369 billion 700 million yuan respectively.

If the stock financing funds are strictly implemented, the new deal two will make a clear margin for the capital side of the stock market; if the new and old delimited only apply the increment, the impact may not be much, specifically to be evaluated.

Reduce leverage on financial products, ban

Issue grading products.

The so-called grading product is that the bank divides a financial product into different levels, and proceeds according to priority and inferior order.

Classified products belong to a kind of off field levers, and the ban on grading products is equivalent to the "deleveraging" policy in the financial market.

In the operation of financial products, the future off-site levers are also hard to squeeze into the field.

Commercial banks should take the risk reserves of financial products in line with quarterly net profit. Among them, the expected yield products other than structured financial products should be calculated according to the 50% of their product management fees. Net value management products, structured financial products and other financial products should be accounted for by 10% of their product management fees.

This is not a new rule, since the Bank of December 2014.

This regulation has been issued by the supervision and management method, but in a comprehensive way, it reflects a relatively strong mentality of policy risk control because of the higher demand for the expected revenue products.

Under the pursuit of absolute gains, outsourcing funds are likely to increase rapidly in the future.

Bank financing fund is a kind of capital that has strong desire to pursue absolute earnings in the market. Under the psychology of rigid market payment, financial capital has always belonged to a "not fully understood" risk market.

The introduction of the new regulation on the one hand controls the proportion of financial capital investment in the equity market and non-standard market, and on the other hand, it is gradually implementing the deleveraging of financial management.

But for financial products, after a short period of risk assets and deleveraging, it is likely to chase higher returns through outsourcing.

At present, the scale of outsourcing products account for about 5% to 10% of the wealth management products, which is equivalent to about 2 trillion of the financial funds that are giving priority to the investment of funds or brokerages. Outsourcing funds are likely to increase rapidly in the future.

Favorable bond market, bad stock market.

The new regulation is bad for the capital market of the stock market. The extent of the impact depends on whether the new regulation is applicable to stock financing funds or new and old ones.

Because some non-standard and stock market configurations will be squeezed into the bond market, it will be good for the bond market, taking into account the mentality of financial capital chasing absolute gains, especially good for long end bonds and rating credit bonds.

If the long-term financial management funds increase the extra investment, considering that about 51% of the outsourcing funds invest in the bond market, the bond market may have more long-term benefits.

Since June, we have judged that "economic inflation is down and the bond market is good", helping investors firmly grasp the market of this bond market, and we maintain the judgement of interest rate debt.

For the stock market, we maintain the shock market. The three characteristics of this year's stock market are interval shocks, stock games and structural market dominance. The strategy of operation is band and wheel.