The Stock Market Is Starting To Rebound.

Today we mainly discuss the quotations in August. Now that we have entered the August, we saw that the start of August was unfavorable, and the market fell on Monday, and now it has begun to rebound. On the other hand, a series of policies recently issued by regulators have also led to a sharp fall in the adjustment of some subject stocks, that is, regulators are guiding people to focus on blue chips through continuous policies instead of buying theme stocks. Overseas, like Hongkong and the United States, the valuation of blue chips is premium, while small cap stocks, especially some junk stocks, are very low valuations. Because the success rate of these stocks is very small, and the risk of buying blue chips is very low, the valuation will also have a premium. And domestic small cap stocks and subject stocks will surely change a lot in the future.

On Tuesday, the market rose rapidly at the end of the market, and the market closed at about 2970. There was no panic selling in the callback. This shows that the market has reached a state of decline. After all, the investors have already sold it, and the market is really not selling well. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market has already reached the bottom of the more than 2600 point. At that time, I put forward a view that the market trend has undergone fundamental changes, from the previous shock downward to the upward trend of turbulence, and the bottom of the market is constantly rising. Although the rebound will not be so great at the bottom of the rally, there will still be some downward trend. But overall, the market is constantly raising its focus. The upward trend is that the height of this rally is higher than that of the previous rally. The bottom of this callback is higher than the bottom of the last callback, which means that the trend is already upward. In this way, investors can use strategy rather than short strategy, which is very different from last year.

The atmosphere in the market in the first half of this year is very pessimistic. Many people may still cut meat on the floor. In fact, looking back at the first half of the year, the strategic bearish is definitely wrong. The strategic view is right, because not only did the index rise three hundred or four hundred points in the first half of this year (the first half of this year refers to the first half of the lunar calendar, which is the market after the Spring Festival, not the first half of the new year's day). We also started to fully open the stock market from then on. In the first half of this year, there were many opportunities for individual stocks, especially in some sectors. In the first half of the year, pessimism may lead to selling some high-quality stocks on the floor, and then need to catch up later. We see that the market started to rebound in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai stock index has returned to 3000.

Recently, as a result of the introduction of the supervision and management measures of commercial banks' financial services (Draft), many investors are worried again, worrying that there may be a new round of decline. But I think everyone is too pessimistic about the management of banking financing, but the market is not so pessimistic, and there will be no new round of decline. This draft only limits the investment of all bank financing in the equity market, and the bank financing that must be approved or accords with the conditions can be invested in the equity market. General bank financing, especially investment in the stock market, some of the threshold for financial management is still relatively high, it is impossible to have no threshold. For some eligible investors to buy bank financing, they can enter the market. In this case, we can not think that bank financing can not be invested in the equity market.

In the whole, it is still in the shortage of asset allocation, that is to say, in order to stimulate the real economy, the central bank has adopted loose monetary policy continuously, and the liquidity of the market is very abundant. This ample liquidity will choose all exports, we see part of the inflow into the property market, has already sold a lot of local housing prices, especially the increase in the prices of the northern Guangzhou and Shenzhen is very amazing, especially in Shenzhen, 10 in case of flat houses are everywhere, and only last year at this time, probably only fifty thousand or sixty thousand of the level, we can say that the abundant liquidity has pushed the price of housing very high, this export has been very full.

The other is the bond market. In fact, the bond market has been in the bull market for 2 years. Liquidity has also led to a continuous decline in yields and even low innovation. The securities market has already gone very high under the impetus of liquidity adequacy. Secondly, like the art market, precious metals and so on, there has been a relatively large increase. Relatively speaking, the valuation of the stock market is very obvious, so the stock market is still on the floor. Now the valuation of the whole market, for example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is still at a low level in history. Some investors may say that the valuation of small cap stocks is high, but small cap stocks can not represent the whole market. The real market represents the stock market and the large cap stocks. There are many reasons for the high valuations of small cap stocks.

In the second half of this year, there will be opportunities for market rebound, and there will be more opportunities for the plate. There may also be some favorable policies in August, for example, it is possible that Shenzhen and Hong Kong will be opened. There are rumors that it is possible to announce the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong through mid and late 8. If we announce the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, we can stimulate investors' enthusiasm for blue chips, especially for the blue chips of Shenzhen's main board. This is also a favorable policy that can be expected. In fact, there were not many bad factors in August. There is another worry that the economic downturn may be on the decline recently. The recently announced PMI has dropped slightly below 50, and many people worry that if PMI is below 50, it will not cause the economy to slide again.

I think the economy is in the trend this year. The characteristics of L are very obvious. The growth of GDP6.7% in the first quarter is also 6.7% in the two quarter. Basically, the trend of L is maintained. It is estimated that the trend of GDP in the three quarter and fourth quarter is basically at this level. This year, the stock market opportunities can not be seen from the economic side, because the volatility of A shares is very large, and there are many factors that affect the A share. The economic side is only one of the factors. In China, the relationship between the stock market and the economy is often quite serious. The most typical example is that in the first half of last year, the economy did not change much, but the A share took a big bull market trend. In the second half of last year, there was no significant drop in the economic surface, and the stock market suffered a three round stock market crash. It can be said that the relationship between stock market and economy is quite serious.

In China, the reason for affecting the stock market is whether capital adequacy is sufficient. The second, more important, is whether confidence is abundant. Investors' confidence is often a very important factor affecting the market. When investors are confident, the market often performs very well. There is a saying that "confidence is more important than gold". A shares There is no shortage of funds. What is lacking is confidence. As long as investors are confident, capital will flow into the stock market continuously, for example, in the first half of last year, because the stock market has already made a profit effect, many investors will make money, so the capital will flow into the stock market continuously. At that time, the volume of trading is trillions, the highest time will reach more than 2 billion.

Funds continue to come in. Now the market is in a state of depression. It is just starting from the bottom. It belongs to the right side, so investors' confidence is not enough. The speed of capital inflow into the stock market is relatively slow, which leads to a rebound in the market, rather than a unilateral rebound. At the bottom, investors' confidence is very fragile. There may be a bit of trouble, and even a small profit will be magnified. equity market The crash was very obvious last week. Last week, the bank issued a financial opinion draft, the stock market has a big Yin line, the index hit 3000 points below. Fortunately, the market has already gone through the stock market crash, and has entered the normal transaction. So, although one day there was a big drop, it did not affect the transaction of the whole market. These trading days are basically in the stage of shrinkage adjustment or concussion, and there is no unilateral decline. This situation is much better than that before the Spring Festival.

At the bottom, because Investor After three rounds of stock market crash, confidence is relatively weak, so the rally will be slower, and there will not be a rapid rebound. In the first half of the year, I put forward a view that "rebound is not the end, but the bottom will not rebound". That is to say, in the process of market decline, investors will have illusions about the bull market and have illusions about the market, so there will be a rapid rebound at the beginning of the bear market. For example, after the stock market crash last year, there was a rapid rebound in the market. But after the real market, investors' confidence is very insufficient. At this time, the rebound is very weak. It may even be a twists and turns, a step up two steps to step back, but this is precisely the stock market has bottomed out.

In the first half of the year, it can be said that the number of voices is very small. In the organization, almost all the Qianhai open source companies are determined to do more. But now the atmosphere of the market has improved. Now the number of investors is increasing. We also see that some analysts and famous investors are starting to see more and see bounce. I think this is a good phenomenon, which shows that our ideas and investment logic are gradually recognized by the market. In the first half of this year, watching more is right and looking right is also important. For example, we recommend a lot of liquor, gold and lithium batteries. The recent white horse stocks, like pharmaceuticals and household appliances, all have a good performance.