The Market Is Cautious About The Trend Of A Shares In The Second Half Of The Year.

In the first half of this year, the Shanghai stock index has been hovering around 3000.

Recently, a number of brokerages released the A share strategy report in the second half of the year, and predicted and predicted the future trend of A shares.

It is estimated that the core fluctuation interval of Shanghai Composite Index will be 2650 points -3350 in the second half of the year. The main opportunity for the Shanghai stock market is the overfall rebound after continuing decline. Combined with historical experience, it is expected that a wave of operational value rebound (over 15% or longer than 1 months or more) will be expected at the beginning of the three quarter of the three quarter.

For the second half of the strategy

Offensive or defensive, Zhongyuan securities analyst Zhang Qing believes that under the weak pattern, defense is the upper.

Those white horse stocks with stable performance, better expectations and reasonable valuation are expected to benefit from the fact that the organization is holding together and are relatively resilient.

High dividend yield stocks have been more resilient in previous bear markets.

China's stock price elasticity is not bad, both offensive and defensive, can focus on.

At the same time, Wang Mingli, a securities analyst at the state yuan, also believes that in the second half of the year, the investment strategy should be summed up first, defensive and backward.

The three quarter is more focused on the prosperity and security margins. The fourth quarter tends to be flexible and policy driven. At the same time, embracing the new economy is the key word for our annual strategy this year. Technology stocks and new materials with demand support are worth focusing on.

From the order of configuration, it is suggested that the three quarter will be biased towards chemical, chemical fiber, power, aviation, food, medicine, nonferrous metals and other sectors, and the fourth quarter will increase the allocation of construction industry, building materials, brokerages and emerging industries.

Chuan Cai securities analyst Mu Qiguo believes that the three quarter is expected to become the best time window for attack.

Shanghai Composite Index and

The deviation of the index from the annual line shows that the current index is in a large oversold interval, and there is less possibility that the index price will continue to deviate significantly from the annual line. The three quarter is expected to be the best time window for the attack.

The risk of falling after June is not great. The major risk events at home and abroad basically fell to the ground in June, and the government and other parties have countermeasures.

In addition, two brokerages research report pointed out that the second half is still difficult to shake off the shock market.

Wan Lian securities analyst Wang Zhaoxin said that in the past, A shares were mostly concussion.

In the concussion market, the fluctuation of risk and the fluctuation of risk preference determine the upper and lower bounds of the shock interval.

The current interest rate environment is close to the level of the previous rounds of the market, but it still has a certain distance from the bottom.

It is difficult for the downward slope of interest rate to support the valuation level.

For this point, UBS Securities analyst Gao Ting also believes that the basic economic performance is expected to be stable and weak, the overall performance of listed companies zero growth, macroeconomic policy is mainly fine-tuning, the market index is unlikely to get rid of the range of shocks.

We believe that the effective promotion of the supply side reform will help to enhance risk preference and is the main upward risk.