Textile Enterprises Should Not Be Happy Before: Throwing Storage Time Extended, Cotton Prices May Still Rise.

Although, "

The news is extended to September 30th.

For enterprises, it is a welcome news, which makes many people feel relieved.

The "Fundamentals" have not changed, and this year's natural disasters are rampant. The cotton situation is still grim. So, I urge you to take back the tone.

Cotton fields were seriously affected, and 95% of the enterprises were losing money.

Recently, most of the Shandong and Shandong areas in the the Yellow River Valley continue to rain, and many places are accompanied by gale. After a few storms, cotton growth and production have been severely hit.

Liu Jian cotton grower in Hejian, Hebei, said that the cotton plant height is 80-90 centimetres, and the general boll setting, bud emergence and flowering are in the critical stage of production.

"There are still plenty of water in the ground, and a lot of buds have gone off."

Lao Liu said that this year's rain is estimated to reduce cotton production by more than 40%, and it is estimated that the yield per unit area will drop by 300-320 Jin / mu.

Coincidentally, in Cangxian, Hebei, a cotton farmer named Li found the local government departments, indicating that the cotton fields were dead, hoping that the government departments could solve some of the losses.

According to his introduction, because of the low topography of his cotton field, the water is serious.

All the cotton bolls and flowers have fallen off, and the cotton plants become yellow and even dead.

It is understood that this year, the whole area of Cangzhou has planted more than 70 mu of cotton, of which 60% cotton fields have been waterlogging, and cotton production and buds have been damaged to varying degrees, and the reduction is expected to be a foregone conclusion.

After several storms in Dezhou, Dongying and other places in Shandong, cotton was also seriously injured.

"Cut production is a foregone conclusion, and this year it is a heavy loss."

A cotton grower in Dezhou has introduced 19 acres of cotton this year. We hope that this year we can have a good harvest of cotton.

The cotton grower has calculated an account: the annual yield of 350 Jin / mu is converted to the unit price of seed cotton, which is calculated at 3.5 yuan / Jin. The gross revenue is estimated to be 350 x 3.5=1225 yuan / mu this year.

However, with regard to the expenditure of about 1350 yuan per mu, it is estimated that at least 125 yuan per mu of cotton will be lost this year.

"Or there is hope that the price of seed cotton will go up sharply."

The cotton grower still has a glimmer of hope for this year.

He thinks that the price of seed cotton may hit 6-7 yuan / Jin next year.

His reasons: first, the national cotton production has been cut down this year. It is estimated that the output of cotton in the whole country or in the first line of 5 million 500 thousand tons is larger than that of last year.

This provides conditions for the rapid rise in cotton prices.

Second, cotton prices are rising faster now, and this trend will continue for the next year.

As a result, seed cotton is expected to rise.

Up to now, spot sales in the the Yellow River River Basin are coming to an end, and only a few quality deviations exist in individual factories.

On the 28 day, the head of a 400 type ginning factory in Dezhou said that the local spot quotation was chaotic, and the good cotton price and the difference of cotton price were good.

Among them, the 3128C class price is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, compared with last week continued to rise 100-200 yuan / ton.

"Now the spot rise has had little effect on the ginning plant."

The official said, first, the cotton mill of the cotton ginning mill has been sold out, and the price fluctuation has little relationship. Two, today's spinning enterprises mainly use cotton to store cotton, and basically do not purchase the stock.

This also causes enterprises to have cotton nowhere to sell.

On the whole, enterprises are also injured like farmers this year.

"95% of the enterprises are losing money."

A market source said that the general business deficit of 10-20 yuan, individual enterprises deficit of 50-60, or even over 1 million yuan.

This has made many enterprises lose the courage to continue to work. It is estimated that the start-up enterprises will be below 20% next year.

Cotton prices rise, cotton yarn market will be what?

At present, the rising trend of cotton yarn has become a trend, and this trend will continue.

As of 28, a cotton mill in Shandong generally 32S, 40S prices reached 20300 yuan / ton, 22800 yuan / ton, all of which rose 200-300 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.

The person in charge of the factory has calculated an account: the cotton price is 14000 yuan / ton conversion at present (3128C level), generally speaking, raw material price accounts for about 68% of yarn cost, so the cost of spinning 32S yarn is 14000 yuan 0.68=20588 yuan / ton.

"We intend to continue to raise the price of cotton yarn in the near future."

The official said that the price of cotton yarn has gradually become normal in recent years.

Li, general manager of a cotton mill in Liaocheng, Shandong, said that they mainly produce 40S combed yarn and core yarn. Since mid July, they have increased their prices for two consecutive times totaling 400 yuan / ton.

They believe that according to the current trend, cotton yarn in the next 1-2 months, there is still about 1000 yuan / ton of room for improvement.

It is inevitable that the yarn price will rise and the domestic yarn will increase.

Traders have responded that since July, the price of external yarn on port of Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo port and Guangzhou port has been rising.

As of 28 days, the CNF quotas for C21S A+, C32S A+ and JC32S A+ yarn produced by India Dachang, Qingdao port, have risen to 2.67-2.69 dollars / kg, 2.93-2.96 dollar / kg, 3.05-3.11 dollar / kg, and the quotation of individual brand C32S yarn has been reported to about 3 US dollars / kg.

A market personage said that the price of Chinese yarn has played a positive role in promoting the price of domestic yarn.

In particular, some yarn branches, such as PU nuclear 21S, 32S and so on, the price of domestic yarn and imported yarn has been comparable, and even individual quotations are still lower than domestic yarn, which is more advantageous than price adjustment for domestic cotton.

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However, with these advantages, it does not mean that the future of cotton yarn is just plain sailing.

At present, many bad factors still restrict cotton yarn and slow down the pace of its rise.

Cotton yarn is still in the off-season. Generally speaking, the 6-8 month is the off-season sales of cotton yarn, especially in the off-season this year, the characteristics are very obvious. The problem of capital triangle debts of downstream enterprises and spinning enterprises is still very prominent, which is not a negative factor for the healthy development of enterprises.

Downstream consumption and export markets are still in the doldrums.

According to customs data, in 2016 1-6, China exported 125 billion 30 million US dollars of textile and clothing, a decrease of 2.63% over the same period last year.

Moreover, the domestic consumer market is still very low, and the domestic market and garment enterprises are still increasing.

Cotton is in short supply, India and Pakistan are rising too!

According to foreign trade report July 28th, although cotton prices have dropped in recent weeks, cotton yarn prices continue to rise, and the quoted prices continue to rise, consistent with the overall trend of the international market.

In recent weeks, India's 30 yarn has risen 5.3%.

The shortage of cotton in India will not disappear for a short period of time, and will remain unchanged until November.

After the harvest of Pakistan's new cotton, the import demand for India cotton may be reduced.

In the long run, Pakistan's cotton production can not meet domestic demand, and the demand for India cotton will remain strong next year, so India's cotton prices will remain strong.

At present, the profits of India's cotton mill are declining, and export competitiveness is declining. The price of 30 FOB of combed yarn has risen to 3 US dollars / kg, and has risen by 30 cents in four weeks.

The CNF price of China's imported India yarn is 2.93 US dollars / kg, which aims to compete with Vietnamese yarn or the price has risen by 14.7% around four weeks.

Cotton prices skyrocketed to force the India plant to become a blend.

Due to the low demand for downstream market after the rise in cotton prices, the India cotton mill is turning its products from 100% cotton to polyester cotton blended and viscose cotton blended fabrics, so as to ensure operating profits and avoid production cuts.

A well-known textile company in India said that India's textile production is now shifting from pure cotton to blending, with the proportion of cotton decreasing and the proportion of chemical fiber and viscose increasing.

Cotton production in India has dropped sharply this year, and domestic cotton supply is particularly tight.

There are about 40 textile factories in India, and about 100 thousand tons of factories need to use cotton about 80 tons. The rise in cotton prices will lead to the shift of factory production to blending. The market demand and profits of India blended yarn are good.

India insiders said that domestic and international demand for India blended fabric (polyester cotton and sticky cotton) is increasing because of low price and high added value products, while pure cotton grey cloth is reduced to the second gear because of the high price.

A well-known textile manufacturer in India said that the demand for polyester cotton and sticky cotton fabrics is very good. Viscose and modal are smooth and soft, and are very suitable for blending with cotton.

Data show that the export volume of India viscose staple fabrics in the 2016 fiscal year reached 230 tons / day, an increase of 17% over the same period last year. The United States is the largest buyer of such products, accounting for 23%. Other buyers include the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Spain, Germany, Holland and France.

Market participants said that as the demand for viscose increased, its prices began to rise, but far less than the increase in cotton prices, so it has strong attraction for textile mills.

Pakistan spinning factory offers strong price!

In recent weeks, the price of cotton yarn in Pakistan has continued to rise, especially for low count yarn varieties, and domestic and foreign demand is very strong.

Last week, 30 yarn rose 4.5% and export quotas increased by 1-2%.

At present, the shortage of cotton supply in Pakistan will lead to a decline in the starting rate of the cotton mill and provide support for the yarn price.

Chinese buyers continued to purchase siro spinning in large quantities, so the factory quotations continued to be strong.

In addition, Pakistan polyester short price also began to rise, the price of blended yarn has risen, but last week the increase was only 1-2%, less than that of all cotton yarn.

afterword

The cotton throwing and storing time is prolonged, and the short time has a restraining effect on the cotton price rise, and also ensures the cotton consumption of spinning enterprises.

However, affected by the tight supply of the market, cotton prices will remain strong and continue to rise.

At the same time, with the rising cotton prices and benign price of yarn, the price of cotton yarn has been rising steadily in recent years. Of course, the price of cotton yarn will not rise.

At present, the price of spinning enterprises has been raised continuously, and the profit has been improved. Although the downstream part has gradually digested part of the increase, the speed is far less than the upstream price rise, so the upstream and downstream contradictions are still intensifying.