The Stock Index Will Go Out Of The Rising Market Driven By The Rise Of Blue Chips.

Over the past few years, as regulatory authorities have strengthened supervision over the manipulation of stocks, some stocks have been more or less affected, and the relatively active market has cooled rapidly in the past.

Disk shows, small and medium board, gem in this period of time trend is weak.

In contrast, the blue chip stocks, which had never been popular before, were stronger.

As a result, there is a voice: blue chips will rise, and guide the market style change, the stock index will be driven by the rise of blue chips, out of the strong rise in prices.

In the interpretation process of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, blue chip stocks and small and medium value growth stocks often play two sides of the structural market. In fact, in the first ten years of this century, blue chips did show the leading market, typical of the "five golden flowers" before and after 2003.

Why does this happen? In terms of the structure of listed companies on the stock market, blue chips are generally made up of traditional cyclical enterprises, while the so-called small and medium value growth stocks contain more companies involved in emerging industries.

From this perspective, it is possible for the current blue chip stocks to rise again, which is overcorrected. But the real rise is very difficult, because foreign currency conditions are needed, and the three conditions listed above are not very good now.

Of course, if such a situation can happen, it is also a good thing.

Looking back at history, we can know that since the stock market ended in August 2009, it has been in the full seven years since the end of the stock market rally. Although the market is changeable and there has been an abnormal market in which stocks share a sharp rise and fall, the market style has always been a mainstream hot spot with small and medium value market growth stocks. Although blue chip stocks are also showing off from time to time, they are not really dominant.

In other words, the market style has not been converted for many years.

Gone.

Here, let's take a set of figures as an example to illustrate.

At the end of July 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2816 points, while the Shenzhen small and medium board index closed 4766 points in the same period.

At the end of July in 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 2155 points, while Shenzhen's small and medium board index closed 6736 points in the same period.

In contrast, in the past seven years, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, whose main target is blue chips, has dropped by 23.47%, while Shenzhen, with small and medium capitalization stocks as its main target, has declined.

It rose by 41.34%.

In addition, even in the year to come, blue chip stocks are basically lagging behind.

Before 2009,

Or the development of heavy chemical industry as the leader. Although the problem of readjustment of industrial structure has been put forward, it has not been implemented in practice by various factors.

After 2009, the original growth mode was difficult to sustain, and the economic growth rate began to decline. The development of new industries was mentioned at a strategic height.

In the past two years, it is also proposed to carry out structural reform of supply side, emphasizing production capacity, reducing inventory, adjusting structure and making up short board.

Objectively speaking, this brings greater pressure to the blue chips in traditional industries, while the growth stocks in emerging industries get more opportunities.

Obviously, in the past seven years, the divergence between blue chips and small and medium capitalization growth stocks in the trend has its internal reasons and logic, and can not be simply attributed to speculation in the market.

Of course, new changes have taken place in the current market environment and some time ago. In the past, the excessive exaggeration and blind speculation in the market of small and medium capitalization growth stocks are being suppressed, and the relatively low valuation of blue chips caused by long-term stagflation has also been concerned by all sectors.

Therefore, in a certain period of time, the blue chip stocks are active, which is logical and reasonable.

However, if we think that the blue chips have risen since then, the stock market has also started a big market centered on blue chips.

If blue chips are to be truly strong, there are at least three requirements: first, the recovery of the traditional industries in which they are in full recovery; the price of products driven by effective demand rather than financial speculation has rebounded sharply; two, the performance of blue chip companies has been rising, even if the level of compound growth rate exceeds 15% in the first ten years of this century, but at least it reaches 7%. Three, the market capitalization should be sufficient, and the blue chip stock is characterized by a relatively large total market value, and many companies with the same plate, which has a strong linkage effect, so its rise needs to consume a lot of capital.

In the stock market in the stock game, it is hard to imagine that blue chips can stand out because there is not enough capital to push it up.