US Interest Rate Hike Is Expected To Fall Short For A Share Market.

In China, there is a popular saying called "thunder and thunder do not rain."

It would be more appropriate to use this saying in the Fed.

Because the Fed does the same thing.

This is not, in the early morning of September 22nd, the fed once again did a "dry thunder without rain".

Beijing time on September 22nd at 2 o'clock in the morning, the Fed announced that no interest rate increase, to maintain the federal funds rate 0.25%~0.5% unchanged.

This is the last time since December 9th, when the United States increased its interest rate for the first time in many years, the Fed has so far been holding six meetings.

In fact, without raising interest rates, it will not raise interest rates, but what puzzled the world is that once again, the FOMC meeting gave the world a strong interest rate hike.

For example, after the Federal Reserve meeting, a tail was left. The Fed's policy statement stated that the conditions for raising interest rates again had been strengthened, suggesting that the interest rate hike was approaching.

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, also said that interest rates would be raised in 2016.

For this reason, public opinion generally believes that the probability of raising interest rates in December has been very high.

The price of the federal reserve fund interest rate futures of Chi Chai shows that the possibility of raising interest rates in 12 months is up to 58%, which shows that the rate of interest rate increase in September 22nd is only 18%.

The issue of raising interest rates in the United States is a political issue. It is not limited to Yellen's assistance to the incumbent president Obama by not raising interest rates. In fact, this political increase in interest rates is more evident in many other aspects.

For example, although the United States has not increased interest rates for six times this year, the United States has been waving the magic of raising interest rates, threatening the world again and again, causing the stock market to fall again and again, and also causing price fluctuations in the world commodity market.

It represents the supremacy of the United States in the world.

Moreover, for the United States, it is the best result not to raise interest rates through verbal threats.

If we really raise interest rates, the United States has lost the "scare weapon" that terrorize the world, so the United States does not want this "scare weapon" to fall too early.

Moreover, this interest rate increase is also a powerful weapon against China.

The Renminbi should go to the world and win the trust of the rest of the world and maintain its currency.

Is the best way.

But the result of the US interest rate increase must be the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB.

But the United States can not always raise interest rates, but can raise interest rates again and again, thus bringing enormous pressure to the RMB.

The boots of the US interest rate increase will not drop. From a political point of view, this is also a need to deal with China.

Once the boots fall, the opposition will not threaten China again and again.

From this point of view, the issue of raising interest rates in the United States is indeed a political issue.

US interest rate hike is expected to fail, and it will be a short-term good for the A share market.

And how good is this? Yesterday (22) the trend of the A share market has given the answer, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.44 points, or 0.54%, that's all.

Judging from the trend of the whole day, we still do not get rid of the pattern of consolidation.

Although early plate high open nearly 13 points, and high walk, but after the touch of 3054.44 points, a concussion down.

The whole day is a small Yang star, trading volume is only slightly enlarged, the overall is still sluggish.

Of course, you can also look at another point of view, that is, even if the US interest rate is increased, A shares are just about a dozen or so points.

After all, the A share market is still a market for domestic investors to amuse themselves.

The impact of US interest rate increase on A shares is generally limited.

Moreover, the current A share market is generally in a doldrums, and the index is near the 3000 point, with relatively limited space to rise and fall.

Current stage

Basically, it can be regarded as invincible, or dead pig is not afraid of boiling water, and it has immune function for general good and bad.

Therefore, the United States does not increase interest rates, for A shares, the reaction will not be too strong.

As for the fact that the United States did not raise interest rates and A shares entered prime time, it would overestimate the impact of US interest rate increase on the A share market.

In the current situation, it is almost impossible for A shares to enter prime time.

Even if China cuts interest rates, it will not necessarily stimulate A shares into prime time.

Very realistic situation is now the prime time for important shareholders to cash in. For example, the first three trading days since the end of the Mid Autumn Festival, 31 important shareholders of listed companies have stepped up the "autumn harvest".

At the same time, A shares were the prime time of IPO, 27 new shares were issued in August, and 23 new shares were issued in September.

In the A stock market with a depressed stock market, IPO is constantly creating miracles.

Moreover, A shares will also usher in the prime time for companies listed in poor areas.

The only thing missing in the A share market is the prime time for investors.

The Fed has no further interest rate hike since the end of last year.

The reasons for the action are manifold. The turmoil in the global financial market since the beginning of this year and the weak growth in the first quarter of the US economy make it difficult for the Fed officials to make up their minds. In the end of 6, the British referendum unexpectedly decided to withdraw from the EU, which strengthened the prudent attitude of the Federal Reserve.

Since then, the US economic data have shown signs of weakness after a short period of strength.

And for these reasons, the most important reason is that the development of the US economy is not as optimistic as some people think.

For example, there was no increase in interest rates this time, mainly because the improvement of US economic data was not stable.

In Yellen's words, it is "evidence of more employment and better inflation".

After all, the US economic data in August were too bad.

In August, PMI in the US manufacturing and non manufacturing industries decreased by 3 points and 4 points to 49.4 and 51.4 respectively. The non manufacturing PMI was the lowest in 2 years.

In terms of non-agricultural data, in August, the number of non-agricultural businesses was only 150 thousand, far below market expectations.

It can be said that the poor economic data of the US in August did not support the US interest rate hike.