The Time To Start The Process Of Euro Withdrawal Has Not Yet Been Determined.

Since the referendum in June, when the British government triggered the fiftieth Treaty of Lisbon and formally launched the process of returning to Europe, it has become the focus of attention in the UK and even in the world.

However, three months later, the British Prime Minister, mee, who resolutely carried out the decision to return to Europe, did not reveal any relevant information since taking office.

Recently, UBS reported that Mei was in fact facing a problem of almost no solution.

A question from UBS's investment department is that Britain's retreat from Europe means...

"In the report, economists Dean Turner, strategist Caroline Simmons and analyst Christof Koumoudos said that the agenda of a series of political events, especially the upcoming events in 2017, will make the British Conservative government face difficulties in deciding when to formally withdraw the European Union.

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It claims that it will establish an unprecedented intimate alliance, but the Member States will still have "national interests above everything else" and give priority to their own national health.

Therefore, once the United Kingdom triggers the fiftieth Lisbon agreement in this period and formally requests to withdraw from the EU, the subsequent negotiations will not enable the EU's three largest countries to "invest fully" because they are busy with their own efforts.

The British Prime Minister will try to avoid falling into this situation.

In 2017, general elections will be held in France and Germany.

Italy will hold a referendum on constitutional reform. If it is finally rejected, it will trigger a new round of general elections.

Turner, Simmons and Koumoudos wrote in the report: "there are many speculations that the prime minister will be under pressure from his own party to withdraw Optima and is forced to formally start the process of retreating Europe early next year.

Although this can satisfy some officials, many people are aware that actually delayed negotiations will be more beneficial. "

"Some analysts think it will be official.

It is more reasonable to postpone the election until the end of the election. At that time, Britain will at least be able to decide who the opponent is.

In addition, if negotiations are conducted during the general election, the leaders' focus on winning the election may make Britain lose the best time to negotiate. "

To avoid these problems, the British Prime Minister and his government should start the process of returning to Europe after the German election in September or October.

However, this will lead to problems in the two-year negotiation period stipulated in the Lisbon treaty.

"It is also a problem to postpone the application to Europe after the German general election.

The next EU parliamentary elections will take place in May 2019.

If you apply after next June,

It will remain in the next parliament as a member of the European Union so that it can continue to run, but the United Kingdom will officially leave soon after the election.

Neither Britain nor EU wants to see this.

"Another consideration is about the EU budget negotiations.

The current plan will end in 2020, so for the European Union, Britain's official exit before this is more conducive to the new budget formulation.

The British general election will also take place in May 2020.

The British Prime Minister will not be willing to do so until now.

Basically, the British Prime Minister will be very hard on the timing of the official start of the European withdrawal process.

European Union minister Davies has said that Britain's withdrawal from Europe will be the most complicated negotiation in history, and the situation is not optimistic until the negotiations have begun.

UBS believes Britain should start the process of returning to Europe before next spring.

The major banks around the world are more willing to see the start delay. They hope that Mei can delay this time as much as possible.

Many large banks have asked for a two-year extension to the EU to make it better adapted to the "new world" after Britain's return to Europe.