Yang Delong: The Federal Reserve Considers It Difficult To Raise Interest Rates Until December.

Does the United States increase interest rates and reverse regulation of economic growth? Economic growth is stimulated by loose monetary policy when the economy is down. When the economy is overheating, it is a reverse adjustment tool by increasing interest rates to avoid overheating. Now the US economy is gradually emerging from the crisis, and there are no previous views that will continue to decline. But now the US economy has not reached the state of overheating. At this time, it is not necessary to adopt such a policy to increase interest rates. According to macroeconomics, it is more difficult to stimulate the economy by reducing interest rates in the economic downturn, but the overheating effect is very obvious. It is as if the horse can pull the horse away by reins, and it is hard for a horse to reverse the halter. When the economy is overheating, it will be better by tightening the pressure of money rather than just when the economy has just recovered.

The market's amplitude reached a 14 year low on Tuesday, indicating that the market divergence is still relatively large, and there is no directional choice for the market. The Fed's Conference on interest rates is equivalent to the news "boots landing", regardless of whether or not to raise interest rates, the market may make a directional choice. I have always believed that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in September is very small. As expected, the Federal Reserve announced at 22 a.m. Beijing time that the current benchmark interest rate of 0.25%-0.50% remained unchanged at 2. Since the first increase in interest rates in more than 9 years in December last year, the Fed has so far held six meetings. The Fed statement did not hint at the next rate hike. When the fed first raised interest rates in December last year, the market expected the fed to raise interest rates four times in 2016, but at that time, I thought the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike was very slow, only once this year, and at most there was only one increase in interest rates.

9 months after this year, the Fed still has no option to raise interest rates. This time, the Fed was very hesitant and entangled, mainly because the conditions for raising interest rates were not mature. Now the global economic growth is not stable, and the US economic recovery is also twists and turns. Some parts of the US economy have improved, while others are pointing in opposite directions. The Fed is also worried that raising interest rates will lead to a stronger US dollar, thereby affecting the US dollar's exports. The US is seeing a lot of growth now, so I have always thought that interest rates will not rise in September.

From US futures performance and interest rate expectations, US September Increase interest The probability is relatively low. Because several times before the "wolf" cried many times, this time some investors think that the possibility of raising interest rate in September. At the previous meeting, the Fed also hinted that the expectation of at least one additional year was very strong. In the second half of this year, there will be three Conference on interest rates in 9, 11 and December. In November, the US general election will be held, so the rate increase in November will probably be eliminated. Then there will be two windows in September and December. I think the Fed will choose to raise interest rates in December, and the possibility of raising interest rates by the end of the year is relatively large. If we choose to raise interest rates in September, it must be a big surprise, which will have a great impact on capital market, commodity market and foreign exchange market. The Federal Reserve's policy is to maintain continuity and anticipation, and it is impossible to make the market totally unpredictable. From this perspective, the probability of raising interest rates in September is very low.

In fact, face similar. data We have different interpretations. This is normal. Everyone has different understandings. For example, the number of non farm employment data in the United States has been a bit unstable in recent months. The data of CPI also fluctuate, which is difficult to point in one direction. The real estate data in the US have improved, but there is also some difference in the degree of improvement and whether or not the interest rate rises. However, the Fed's decision is not just looking at these data, but also a series of chain reactions. For example, the increase in US dollar interest rate will bring us dollar strength and bring about depreciation of other currencies such as euro, yen and RMB. This will affect US exports. The economic recovery of the United States in recent years is based on export growth, and hopes to promote economic growth through the export of manufacturing industry. Therefore, the Fed's consideration is very comprehensive, rather than one or two data, so comprehensive consideration, will be very cautious about raising interest rates.

As I pointed out before, after the Spring Festival, the bottom is gradually rising, which can be called the "slow bull market". Of course, the trend of slow cattle is rather grim. If the Fed chooses to raise interest rates this time, it will certainly affect every one. Risky assets It may lead to a decline in the US stock market and European stock market, thereby dragging the performance of A shares. The Fed did not choose to raise interest rates this time, and global investors had a breathing space to increase their preference for risky assets. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan maintain the state of releasing water. When the majority of central banks of the world keep the water supply, the risk assets represented by the stock market will go up to a new high. In fact, the Federal Reserve will take into account the impact on the global market when deciding whether to raise interest rates. My advice to investors is that we can wait for boots to land and choose some high-quality blue chips to configure when the market is shaking. In the case of slow bull market can not operate frequently, otherwise it can only cause losses.

The US economy has stabilised in the three quarter, but there are only signs of stabilization. There are still many uncertainties about whether the economy will continue to grow. The Fed still needs to observe another quarter and decide whether to raise interest rates until the end of the year. At present, the economy has just had some economic recovery momentum. If the rate rises immediately, it will definitely change the market expectations, which will lead to the economic growth rate down, which is equivalent to the economic recovery in the cradle. The Fed is sure to consider whether it is good for economic development. This is the first issue. Therefore, it will not raise interest rates when the economic recovery just signs up, and it will be a more perfect opportunity in December.