China's Foreign Trade Choice Under The Background Of "Counter Globalization"

According to the latest official figures, China's total import and export volume has declined by 1.8% over the past 8 months, of which exports have declined by 1% and imports by 2.9%. That is to say, up to now, China's import and export of foreign trade still has a negative growth. Such a long period of import and export continued to shrink in the history of China's foreign trade is very rare, the underlying reasons for it are worth studying.

As the largest economy in the world, the continuous decline of China's imports and exports is directly related to the slowing down of China's economy and the global economy, or even its weakness. The analysis shows that the "reverse globalization" is mainly manifested in the Doha round's progress under the background of stagnation. regional trade The emergence of the agreement (RTA) and the rise of various forms of protectionism.

Although any RTA will produce trade creation effect within the region, this fragmentation mode of trade will inevitably lead to the massive transfer of trade and the fragmentation of the international division of labor and cooperation, and with a very distinct exclusiveness, which will eventually offset the combined gains of globalization.

As a country with the largest volume of trade in the world, China's trade transfer impact on RTA should be the largest. And the dynamic observation that the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) also has a clear strategic intention to curb China. Once passed in the US Congress, China will suffer from the equivalent trade loss.

We need to be vigilant because the industrial structure in the high end and developed countries is becoming complementary or overlapping from the complementarity. At the same time, the low-end light industry textile and the developing countries' compete More intense, China's two-way trade frictions are increasing. According to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, in the first 8 months of 2016, China suffered 85 trade relief investigations initiated by 20 countries (regions), involving 10 billion 300 million dollars, the number of cases increased by 49%, and the amount involved increased 94%.

On the one hand, China must unswervingly "go to capacity" and increase the pace of transformation and upgrading. At the same time, in developing the external market, in addition to steadily promoting the original bilateral trade agreements and launching negotiations on new trade agreements between China and the United Kingdom, China and Canada, based on the need to highlight the image of big countries, China should focus on the construction of multilateral RTA and expand its own "circle of friends".

On the other hand, we must create conditions to accelerate trade agreements between China, Japan and South Korea. negotiation Process and, if possible, include three sides of commodity trade and investment in a negotiating basket. At the same time, we need to increase the pace of consultation on the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP), and strive for landing at the end of 2016. On this basis, we will further seek the 3 upgraded version of 10+1.

In addition, in view of the fact that the Sino US investment agreement (BIT) may play a lubricant role between TPP and RCEP and help to promote the idea of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone (FTAAP) advocated by China, China should speed up the early conclusion of BIT, and on the basis of this, we can also seek the opportunity to smooth the bilateral investment and trade agreement (BITT), and then start the pace of Sino US FTA.

It is worth noting that, while there is a huge surplus in goods trade, China's trade in services has always had a significant deficit. Therefore, it is necessary for China to further increase the proportion of service trade whether it is to balance the merchandise trade accounts, or to avoid trade frictions or enhance the export level. The specific measures include opening up the service industry in China, eliminating monopoly and relaxing all kinds of unnecessary regulations, releasing more room for social capital. Meanwhile, in the seven free trade zones, we continue to explore the open mode of "negative list of service trade + national access before admission", breaking the barriers to opening service, personnel mobility and technology.

On the one hand, we should develop general service trade, offshore service outsourcing, border services trade and offshore branch service sales, constantly innovate the development mode of service trade; on the other hand, we must focus on increasing the intensity of the policy of border services trade, and develop the "enclave" service trade in Tourism, distribution, health care, entertainment and other areas by utilizing the advantages of the border areas adjacent to the relevant countries and regions. At the same time, we should focus on the "along the way" countries, accelerate the seamless integration of key infrastructure such as oil and gas pipelines, power grids and information networks along the lines, and open up the trade flow, logistics, flow of people and information flow along land, sea and air.