Xinjiang Cotton Purchase Price Speculation, Textile Export Pressure Still Exists

Judging from the current cotton market, first of all, the hot situation of cotton reserves and the shortage of new cotton resources will cause Xinjiang's cotton purchase price to continue to be raised, and the possibility of market speculation is bigger.

Secondly, new flower picking and listing are delayed.

As of September 30th, the national cotton picking rate was 17.8%, down 5.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which is 8.6 percentage points lower than that in the past four years (the same period average value).

It is estimated that after mid October, with the picking of Xinjiang machine picked cotton,

It will be listed in large quantities.

Downstream, after the G20 summit, especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, printing and dyeing and garment enterprises have resumed production, gray cloth has demand and way out, and at the same time, it also promotes the sale of yarn and thread.

But overall, there has not been any substantial improvement. Even some textile enterprises will still have a price reduction phenomenon to speed up the return of capital.

Cotton prices are expected to remain strong in October, and there will be a slight risk of return in mid June.

From the industry, the above limit is August.

The total retail sales reached 100 billion 200 million yuan, up 6.2% over the same period last year.

China's textile and apparel exports amounted to US $27 billion 933 million, down 3.1% compared to the same period last year.

Among them, exports of textiles (including textiles, yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $10 billion 246 million, an increase of 5.19% over the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $17 billion 686 million, down 7.34% from the same period last year.

The manufacturing economy expanded in the last month, and the economy was running smoothly.

Overall, textile industry analyst Xia Ting believes that

The auction was repeated, and the acrylonitrile plant was centralized overhauled. The two major products pulled up the entire textile market in September.

For the October market, according to the survey of 100 textile enterprises by business associations, 41 of them were bullish, 9 were empty, and 50 were flat. This shows that everyone is optimistic about the upcoming "silver ten".

Xia Ting also believes that the textile market in October will be better than in September, especially in the first half of the month.

For the chemical fiber market, "several happy worries", such as viscose industry, since 2014, the pressure of supply capacity has been significantly reduced. Last year, the new capacity growth rate was less than 6%, significantly lower than the average level in the past few years. It is estimated that the total capacity of 180 thousand tons in the next two years will remain low.

At the same time, under the pressure of environmental protection, nearly 10% of viscose staple fiber production was withdrawn from the market last year, resulting in a significant shrinkage in the supply side.

As well as the substitution effect caused by cotton price rise and other factors, the boom of viscose industry will continue to rise.

The acrylonitrile industry will remain strong in the short term due to the centralized maintenance of the plant.

However, although spandex, nylon and Dacron remain low in inventory, they are weak in cost support and low in demand in the downstream area. The market is expected to remain weak in October.

It is estimated that the overall textile market will remain strong in October, and will reach the highest point in the year. It is expected to be near the 840 point, or at the end of the month.