Feng Mengxiao: China'S Cotton Consumption Is Dynamic.

The incompatible macroeconomic and incompatible currencies are simply two skins, and even the real economy is facing "monetization" and "financial erosion".

According to the financial statistics data released by the people's Bank of China in the first three quarters of 2016, at the end of 9, the balance of broad money (M2) was 151 trillion and 640 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 45 trillion and 430 billion yuan, an increase of 24.7% over the same period last year.

In the same period, China's GDP growth rate was 6.7%.

Continue to increase.

Feng Mengxiao pointed out that China launched a series of supply side structural reforms, such as inventory, capacity and short board, to benefit the upstream commodity market. The overall level of supply and demand is developing from a serious oversupply to a gradual supply and demand balance.

The global cotton production and marketing pattern, Feng Mengxiao analysis, from the United States Department of agriculture data, in 2016, the global cotton continues to maintain the 2015 production shortage situation.

It is worth noting that the international market outside China is the opposite.

In 2016, the output of the international cotton market outside China was larger than that required by 1 million 125 thousand tons.

In 2008, the international financial crisis broke out, and the global economic operation cycle was interrupted. The long term stable global macroeconomic ecological pattern has collapsed, and the new economic ecology is looking for directions and paths.

The growth rate of the economy has been slowing down. The latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the expected growth rate in 2016 is only 3.1%, while the 1980-2015 year historical average is 3.5%. The average of 2008-2015 years since the outbreak of the crisis is 3.3%.

At present, the global labor productivity continues to decline. International organizations have suggested that labor productivity growth in 2016 is zero and in 2017 it has dropped to negative growth.

Lower productivity will further inhibit investment, production and trade.

The revolution of science and technology is still at a low ebb tide, and the new era of science and technology with milestone significance is far from coming.

Different humanities, geopolitics and countries are in the stage of deep game.

The external environment that has pushed China's economic reform and opening up has changed from time to time.

The global engine is in retreat.

The tide is coming one after another.

At present, the pattern of global economic ecology is worrisome, and its manifestation is more and more similar to that of the great depression.

China's economy is hard to get rid of itself despite internal and external troubles. The growth rate has not stopped falling, and foreign trade has cooled down again.

China's exports in September were up to -10% (US dollars), and exports fell by 7 months.

Feng Mengxiao thinks China's cotton consumption is dynamic.

Referring to the Chinese government's encouragement to expand and extend the textile industry chain in Xinjiang, Feng Mengxiao believes that this does not simply mean increasing domestic cotton consumption.

With the expansion of domestic production capacity, textile industry will become more competitive if China's cotton and cotton yarns are not internationally competitive.

If we think that Xinjiang's spinning capacity increases, it will be equivalent to China's expansion of cotton consumption increments.

Eventually, the export capacity of China's textile industry will be further shrunk, which will in turn suppress China's cotton consumption.

In September, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 22 billion 765 million US dollars, down 15.4% from the same period last year, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the same period last September, a decrease of 3.1% percentage points from August and an increase of 12.3 percentage points over that of September.

In September, textile exports amounted to 7 billion 720 million US dollars, down 20.5% from the same period last year, down 0.48% from the same period last September, and the decline has increased by more than 20 percentage points, a 25 percentage point increase over August, and 15 billion 45 million US dollars in clothing exports, a 12.6% decrease compared with the same period last year, a 4.12 percentage point increase over the previous September, and 5 percentage points lower than the August decline.

In terms of cotton price trend, Feng Mengxiao believes that the global cotton prices in 2016 3--4 will almost hit bottom. Unless the global systemic financial crisis erupts again, it will be difficult to break through the low price of 10 thousand yuan / ton in the past 5-10 years or even longer.

Over the years, cotton prices in most years tend to come out of the downward trend, usually at around the bottom of the market in December or so in October.

After all, this period is the new stage of cotton resource listing in the new year.

Finally, the participants in this forum exchanged and discussed the macro economy, commodity market and trend of cotton market at home and abroad.