Volatility In The Stock Market Is Unpredictable. A Shares Also Have Seasonal Effects.

Volatility in the stock market is unpredictable, but there are still signs of seasonal fluctuations from historical data.

The formation of the spring market is related to seasonal factors such as the return of funds after the Spring Festival, the resumption of market activity after the long holidays, the convening of the two sessions and other important meetings.

From nearly 20 years of data, we can see: the spring 2/3/4 month market is better.

The highest winning rate in February was 70%, but because the increase was mostly small, the relative winning rate of the month was not high; the average increase in April was 3.39%, but the winning rate / relative winning rate was only 60%/50%, indicating that the high yield of the month was at the expense of higher risk; the March gains, winning rates and relative winning rates were all better, and the matching of risk and earnings was better.

Over the past 20 years, if held during the Spring Festival

In the first half of April, the average annual growth rate was 7.35%, with a median of 7.97%, with a winning rate of 80% (16 years in 20 years).

Since May, the market's success rate and the decline have been decreasing, showing the market downturn in summer.

Not until November did the stock market pick up.

And the December /1 months of the market in winter again to a cold.

In December, although the average increase was considerable, the winning rate / relative winning rate was only about 50%. If the bull market interference of 2006 and 2014 was excluded, the average gain would be close to zero.

The peak of the monthly market in 2, 3, 4, November, the low in 1, 6, 8, September, showing the first half of the better than the second half of the pattern.

Below is quarterly basis.

Statistics:

Li Shaojun further noted that in the past 20 years, if the Shanghai composite index was held from the Spring Festival to the first half of April, the Shanghai composite index increased by 7.35% in the time interval, with a median of 7.97%, with a winning rate of 80% (16 years in 20 years).

In view of the 2-4 month's "spring market", Li Shaojun believes that the formation of the "spring market" is related to seasonal factors such as the return of funds after the Spring Festival, the resumption of market activity, the two sessions and other important meetings.

If we combine the analysis of the Spring Festival effect and the two sessions' effect, we can choose the Spring Festival to hold the position in the first half of April, and then we can further improve the winning rate.

Nearly 10 years of law: 2, 3, 4, 7, October, good market, 1, 6, and poor performance in August.

In the past 10 years, the fluctuation rule remained unchanged in the first half of the year, but the advantage in the second half of the year was no longer obvious.

In the second half of the year, the pattern changed greatly: on the one hand, the market in November advanced to October, forming the commonly known "autumn market"; on the other hand, the winning rate in July increased substantially.

These changes may be at the end of the quarter.

Fluctuations related to the activation of capital repatriation in the early July and early October, and the seasonal fluctuation of this kind of capital surface was not significant in earlier years.

In addition, the best economist vote in October may also be an important reason.

The voting was only fixed in October from 2007. It may bring seasonal market activity through seasonal sellers centralization services.

Li Shaojun said, overall, the trend of the spring market has been stable in the past 20 years, and the right time window has a profit margin of about 80%. However, the trend in the second half of the year has changed greatly, which needs to be further analyzed in combination with the capital effect, the holiday effect and the conference effect.

The lower months of the ups and downs and the winning rates are January, June and August.