The Scale Of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Has Shrunk For Three Consecutive Months.

The house is leaking for rainy days. In October, the renminbi went out of the new round of depreciation, and the dollar index strengthened sharply in the same month. Analysts generally say that capital outflows and valuation effects overlap, and China's foreign exchange reserves are facing double downward pressure. A number of agencies that had predicted earlier were especially pessimistic.

The offshore renminbi declined by 1.53% against the US dollar in October, and the monthly depreciation rate hit a new high since last August. Facing the acceleration of exchange rate depreciation, China is strengthening management of cross-border capital transactions from overseas insurance to bitcoin to deal with capital outflow.

"Central bank in foreign exchange market Continued intervention will also drain foreign reserves, "Hu Zhipeng, chief economist of the Greater China region of Royal Bank of Scotland, said in an interview that he expects the October outflow momentum to be more severe than in September and the external reserves to drop by 46 billion US dollars. He said that the favorable factor was the less working days of the month and the seasonally increasing trade surplus. The negative factor was that the exchange rate valuation effect was more obvious.

　　 Most prospective people are pessimistic.

In Bloomberg's summary record, Julian Evans-Pritchard, a senior economist at Kay investment in the past 6 months, is the most accurate estimate for China's foreign reserves prediction. In October, the valuation loss in the reserve could be as high as $65 billion. He considered not only the rise of the US dollar to the non US currency, but also the trend of the adjustment of US Treasury bonds. In addition, he estimated that China used US $35 billion to stabilize the exchange rate last month, and the total foreign reserves dropped by US $100 billion.

The two institutions that predict the ranking are China Minsheng Bank and orient Huili, which also forecast a more significant drop than Bloomberg's value: the two agencies were expected to drop to $3 trillion and 125 billion and $3 trillion and 84 billion by the end of October.

The ANZ bank also believes that the foreign reserves will be attracted from October. foreign exchange Intervention, valuation of negative effects and fixed income investment three aspects of pressure. Khoon Goh, Asia Research Director of the ANZ bank, wrote yesterday that when the dollar strengthened again with the US presidential election, China's tolerance for the weakening of the renminbi and the maintenance of a basket index remained stable, implying that the central bank might need to step up its intervention to further reduce its external reserves.

Khoon Goh forecast that foreign reserves last month fell by 80 billion US dollars to 3 trillion and 86 billion US dollars. In the world's major currencies in October, the euro fell 2.26% against the US dollar, the pound fell 5.63% against the dollar, and the Japanese yen fell 3.31% against the dollar.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS's Greater China, predicted that the external Reserve would exceed $50 billion, of which $45 billion would be a valuation loss. BBVA China's chief economist, shal, estimates that non US currency accounts for about 30% of the foreign reserves, so the October valuation factors will lead to $200 to $30 billion.

　　 Cross border funds flow

In September this year, the balance of foreign exchange demand between banks was 179 billion 300 million yuan, which was more than 7 times larger than the deficit in August, the highest level since March. At the end of 9, the balance of China's foreign reserves amounted to $3 trillion and 170 billion, and the estimated median value at the end of the 10 months indicated that it was the lowest since March 2011.

Up to now, there is still no public data showing the flow of funds in October, but the official statement of the State Administration of foreign exchange has been quite optimistic. Wang Chunying, director of the balance of Payments Division, pointed out at the October 21st press conference that statistical monitoring showed that the recent cross-border outflow of funds slowed down and the balance of payments related to foreign exchange since October. RMB The average daily net expenditure was more than 30% lower than that in September, and foreign exchange funds changed from a small net expenditure in September to a net income of a certain scale.

She also said that the pressure on foreign exchange purchase in the foreign exchange market was eased. Since October, the deficit in bank sales and foreign exchange has narrowed significantly, and the average daily deficit has decreased by more than 80%. The net foreign exchange purchase by individuals has decreased by 10% over the same period. China's central bank and other regulatory authorities are studying measures to limit the exchange of Renminbi into US dollars through Bitcoin transactions and to remit funds overseas.

But last Friday, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the foreign exchange bureau directed some of the bank's windows and asked for measures to narrow down the deficit. Although the authorities did not respond to new regulatory measures such as exchange and cross border receipts and payments, they also asked banks to comply with the existing foreign exchange management regulations and enhance the authenticity compliance audit. Subsequently, UnionPay International announced that it was prohibited from using UnionPay card to buy some insurance products in Hongkong.