There Has Been A Sharp Rise In The Chinese Prefix Stocks.

From the valuation point of view, the blue chips in A shares have returned to a reasonable interval, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are relatively attractive.

The partial agitation and fluctuation of A shares reflect the upward trend of the market to a certain extent.

However, due to the short run of the game of stock capital, there is a substantial reversal in the short term, and the hot topic opportunities are lax.

Since the bull market needs to cooperate with the macro, policy and capital sides, the current situation is not enough to compare with the bull market at the end of 2014.

If we take the 9 US elections since 1980, the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones index data in November, we can see that there is no obvious rule in the general election period, and the impact on the A share index is even weaker.

During this election period

The rise of market risk aversion is due to the more radical policies Trump put forward during his campaign.

If Trump is elected, the uncertainty of policy will exacerbate the short-term market volatility; if Hilary is elected, the market performance will be more stable because of the continuity of its policy.

In the medium to long term, the impact on the A share should be based on the new president's policy and economic background.

Domestic and foreign markets are more concerned about the results of the US presidential election.

We can see from two levels. First, from the perspective of the election itself, the differences between Trump and Hilary are mainly confined to the United States.

Under normal circumstances, their campaign language will not be equivalent to the specific administration after the election, so the impact of the US election results on the financial market will be short-term.

On the other hand, from the perspective of market relevance, the performance of the US dollar and US stocks will be right.

A certain impact, especially the continued strength of the US dollar, has had a significant impact on the liquidity of the global market. A shares liquidity is hard to get away with.

In fact, the decline of B shares in the early stage is a microcosm of the Asian stock market's general market decline and capital outflow.

Relative to the result of the US presidential election, we should pay more attention to when the US dollar interest rate boots will come down.

The main reason for the shift of the policy focus of "inhibiting asset price bubbles" is that the economic growth has been stable in the three consecutive quarters, and the pressure of steady growth has eased. Meanwhile, the shortage of assets has led to the accumulation of financial risks.

Therefore, in the four quarter, the liquidity rate will be tighter. Monetary policy will adopt more flexible means to regulate liquidity.

Monetary policy is changing to "controlling risks".

At the end of October, the meeting of the Central Political Bureau pointed out that "in order to effectively implement the proactive fiscal policy, we must adhere to a prudent monetary policy, while maintaining a reasonable and abundant liquidity, while focusing on the suppression of asset bubbles and the prevention of economic and financial risks".

As management requires very clear control over risk, it is estimated that the capital side is tight and moderate, which is still relatively abundant in general.

From the risk point of view, the market has not paid enough attention to the depreciation of the RMB.

The marginal effect on the market is passivation.

If the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December, the impact of exchange rate on the stock market should not be ignored.

In addition, overseas risks such as the US general election and Deutsche Bank events are still to be released.

In addition, the central bank's lengthening of the buy back period, pushing up short-term capital costs and restraining asset price bubbles will have an impact on the four quarter monetary environment.

From last week's observation of net capital reduction in industrial capital, the amount of reduction will continue to increase, and the number of lifted stocks will increase further in the four quarter, which will cause a great impact on stock market liquidity.

To sum up, the fourth quarter strategy is to choose a robust consumer medicine sector with a robust growth performance, as well as the leading share of the real growth segments that match the performance and valuation.

At present, A shares lack systematic investment opportunities, and there is no possibility of a sharp decline in the short term.

Hong Kong stocks, although Shanghai and Hong Kong through the flow of funds shows that there are signs of return of the north water, the short-term Hang Seng index remains callback pressure, but the future Hong Kong stocks is still greater than the risk of opportunities.

In the fourth quarter, we will strictly follow the investment concept of "good business, good company and good price", and we will be optimistic about investment opportunities in liquor, medicine, automobile and consumer electronics.

We anticipate that there will be definite opportunities for the four quarter of the stock market with high performance price ratio (high growth rate, reasonable valuation), future (industry status is strong, strong innovation), and catalyst (benefiting medical insurance catalog reform).

In addition, in terms of automobile and consumer electronics, it is estimated that the growth rate of the SUV market in the four quarter and next year, especially the independent brand, will continue to be higher than the average growth rate of the industry.

At the same time, we are optimistic about apple industry chain's Micro innovation, automotive electronics and AR industry.