"2016 Breakthrough Breakthroughs" Forum: Premature Economic Recovery

China's GDP growth rate remained at 6.7% in the third quarter, and there were many different voices on the market. Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University, said the three quarter economic data showed that China's economy The growth rate remains the first sign, but the economic recovery is too early. We should carefully manage the capital flow, manage the expectation of exchange rate depreciation, adjust the money stock, increase fixed income, increase the stock of bonds, and realize the real opening of capital and money market.

At the forum of "2016 breakthroughs" sponsored by the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University (CCWE), Mr Lee said that the economic growth in the first three quarters of this year was 6.7%, and continued to operate in a reasonable range. Since the three quarter, some macroeconomic indicators have shown signs of stabilizing or recovering slightly or continuing to improve.

The growth rate of manufacturing investment and private investment both picked up slightly in September, which directly led to a 0.1 percentage point increase in fixed asset investment growth in 1-9 months to 8.2%. Driven by the rapid growth of car sales and the gradual efforts of the second child policy, retail consumption has picked up slightly since the three quarter, and consumption continues to play an important role in stabilizing economic growth and optimizing the economic structure.

From a price point of view, PPI After four and a half years of negative growth, the year-on-year growth rate was positive in September, and the CPI growth rate remained at about 2% year-on-year. From the perspective of industrial production and profit, the PMI index, the growth rate of industrial added value and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises all showed signs of stabilizing and recovering.

Li Daokui further pointed out that positive changes in some macroeconomic indicators do not mean that the economy has bottomed up or even recovered slowly. The positive changes of these indicators indicate that the downward trend of the economy has temporarily slowed down, but it is hard to say that the economy has stabilized and China's economy is still in the bottom up process.

The stabilization of some economic indicators in the first, third quarter has largely benefited from the steady growth of the government, especially the steady investment policy, and the driving force for China's economic growth is still insufficient, for example, the growth rate of private investment and manufacturing investment still lingers at a historical low of about 3%.

Second, the improvement of PPI and the improvement of industrial profits largely benefited from the warmer prices of commodities and industrial products in the upper and middle reaches. Most of the manufacturing enterprises in the middle and lower reaches had no obvious improvement in product prices and profits.

Third, international market The recovery is not as good as expected, and some countries' trade protectionism is on the rise. It also adds pressure to the continued downturn in the import and export situation.

In addition, the three or four line of urban real estate inventory high and the first and second tier cities property market regulation policy for the fragile real estate investment rebound situation increased uncertainty. All these factors bring challenges to the foundation of China's economic stabilization and recovery.

Li Daokui said that since the three quarter, the signs of stabilization are relatively fragile and the foundation is still weak. China's economy is still in the bottom up process. According to the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, China's economic growth rate was 6.7% in 2016, and its growth rate was 6.6% in 2017.

Li Daokui suggested that in the future, we should start from three aspects of investment, foreign trade and exchange rate, and take practical measures to speed up reform. We should fundamentally solve the problem of persistent downturn in manufacturing and private investment, and really let economic departments and local officials care about economic development and work closely together with private entrepreneurs to increase investment in fixed assets. We should intensify the construction of large domestic markets, increase domestic inter provincial trade, and cope with the shrinking international trade.