A Share Trend: Will Shenzhen And Hong Kong Lead To The Continued Differentiation Of The Main Market?

Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is actually the docking between mature market and developing market. It is the rational regression of mature market affecting the A share market, or the A share market driving the mature market to rise. This needs close observation.

Two important risk sources for A shares need to be recognized.

Recently, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has listed a list of attachments, including the agreement on the opening of Guoxin Securities and other member units. The list includes 24 securities companies, including Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, CICC, China Merchants Securities, Shenyuan Hongyuan securities, Orient Securities, GF Securities, Anxin securities and Guoxin Securities.

This indicates that the launch time of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will be launched.

Through the study of the market, the recent A share market turbulence has been intense, and the differentiation between the main board and the gem has begun.

Observation from the market trajectory shows that the Shanghai composite index has broken through the 3100 high points in mid April this year, approaching the high point in mid August, and stepped out of the trend of unilateral shocks. The gem index still has a certain gap from the high point of 2330. The trend is relatively weak, and the trajectory is also running downwards.

The upcoming Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is an open investment project. Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has a positive impact on the A share market. However, the impact of the Hongkong and Shenzhen B-share investment channels and valuation on the market is limited.

According to the data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the average growth rate of Shenzhen's growth enterprise market is about PE78 times, and that of Shenzhen's main board is about PE26 times, and that of Shanghai's main board is about PE16 times.

The average PE of Hongkong's main board is about 10 times, and the average price earnings ratio of the gem is relatively low. Therefore, from the valuation factor analysis, this action has become more profitable for the Hongkong market or some of the main board stocks of A share, but for the A share growth enterprise market, the impact may be limited and negatively promoted.

From the point of view of the most critical factor in the market, the trajectory changes can be found if the trajectory of the time factor is expanded.

We only conduct a recent quantitative comparison of the main board market in the middle of August this year.

The study found that on 15 and 16 August this year, the Shanghai composite index could reach 3279 or 308 billion 500 million per day, and the Shanghai composite index is approaching the high point at that time. However, the single day volume can be up to 265 billion 800 million yuan yesterday. This shows that the capital market of the main board can still reach the target or break through, so it is necessary to observe the breakthrough or retreat of the volume.

This is also a key indicator of whether the motherboard can continue to split or end.

We have talked about the valuation factors ahead of time, not much, but the second factor is very direct.

This year, the cumulative issuance of new shares is basically 23 times the PE valuation issued. After listing, it almost cleared the first day of 44%, and then most of them had more than more than 10 consecutive stocks and hype, and many varieties had a hundred times PE valuation risk area in the short term. Once the cumulative effect reached a stage, its concussion and the risk impact to the market often had quite a long time.

The rational development of stock issuance and listing in the international capital market actually reflects the risk accumulation of A shares.

If the Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges are opened, more and more investors will pay more attention to the international mature market. It is rational to influence irrational or irrational to drive rational needs to be observed.

Recently, about 10 times the issuance and listing of postal savings bank H-share breakup, this shows that a trading mechanism, reduction mechanism and rational treatment of new shares in mature markets will affect.

Need observation.

We expect that if the total market volume can not break through the middle of August this year, even if the breakthroughs of breakthroughs increase, it may also be followed down, and maintain the pattern of main creation and differentiation.

But in the medium to long term, the docking between mature market and developing market will eventually form a balance, which will lead to stock price differentiation, risk and opportunity.

On the whole, the differentiation between the main board and the gem appears in the sensitive time coming from Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong. Due to many factors such as the trading mechanism, the differentiation of valuation, the change of market capacity and the rationality of new shares, investors need to observe closely.