The Results Of The State Polls Will Announce That The Market Will Be Turbulent.

The American election is coming to an end, and there are endless twists and turns in the campaign, but there is a saying that there is nothing new under the sun. Although unexpected and potentially unstable political events always make traders and investors nervous, some events do trigger off.

But history has repeatedly shown that these events usually do not have a lasting effect. Perhaps people are not very different from goldfish that only have 7 seconds to remember.

On Tuesday (November 8th), the US general election will be opened, and the preliminary results of the voting will be released around 12:00 on Beijing time.

In the past few weeks, the market has been turbulent. Whatever the final outcome of the US election, it is certain that the election day market will ride the roller coaster and the turbulence will become the core theme.

In October 28th, FBI announced that it would restart the investigation of Hilary's mail door incident. During the investigation of an unrelated case, it found some new mail that appeared to be related to Hilary's "mail door" investigation.

The news triggered panic in the global financial market. The US Standard & Poor's 500 index fell for the 9 consecutive trading day, the longest consecutive record decline since 1980, down 1.9% last week.

The upward trend of the US dollar index was obstructed, and it fell off the 97 pass last Friday.

Risk aversion is heating up, and gold is once on the 1300 pass.

But last Sunday, FBI director Comi sent a letter to Congress saying that after reviewing the newly discovered mail related to the "mail gate" incident of Democratic presidential candidate Hilary, FBI maintained the previous conclusion that he did not propose to prosecute Hilary.

With this news lifted, the US dollar index opened higher on Monday to return to 97, and spot gold opened up sharply to dive 17 US dollars.

As the former US President George W. Bush assistant Joe Watkins pointed out, FBI chief Kimi's new letter pushed Hilary at the last minute, but this did not suppress the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. Kimi's letter to the US Congress in October 28th had irreversibly affected.

The election in the US election is a stalemate. In less than two weeks away from the election, FBI's news of Hilary's "mail gate" incident has been exposed. It has increased Trump's chances of shaking votes in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, which is crucial for Trump to win 270 votes in the general election.

Ryan Williams, former Republican spokesman for the US presidential election in 2012, said that (FBI maintained the previous judgment on Hilary's innocence at the last critical moment), which weakened the wind force in the course of Trump's sailing. However, it also means that until the election day, Hilary's "mail door" Report will continue to occupy the headlines.

So, even though Monday

However, the uncertainty in the US election is especially high. Before the dust settles, the uncertainty of the US election will continue to envelops the market.

On the day of election, as the results of polling results are announced in various states, there will be violent upheaval in the market.

1, no matter who is elected, the political risk of the United States is very high.

Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citibank, said that the electoral process was full of twists and turns, and the polarization was obvious. No matter who was the winner, it was not a good omen for the administration of the US government after the election.

Low credibility, bipartisan relations and identity politics will continue to ignite political risks in the United States.

2, prepare for upheaval.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas said, "what should we do to compete with an increasing uncertainty? Stick to the" real politics "orientation, but prepare for the upheaval.

The market is volatile this week, but less than 1 months ago, the risk assets have now shown enough "panic" premium.

3, two presidential candidates for the fed to raise interest rates in December what does it mean? Barclays' Rajiv Setia, Anshul Pradhan and Amrut Nashikkar expect that if Trump is elected, the market will react immediately, and the risk aversion will rapidly increase, and hedge buying will pour into the medium term US Treasury bonds. The yield curve of the 30 and 5 year treasury bonds will be steeper, and the financial environment will continue to be tense, which will reduce the possibility of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rate in December.

If Hilary wins and the risk asset price rises, the yield curve of the 30 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds will be smoother as the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates in December.

4, the uncertainty of this election will take longer.

Parag Thatte of Deutsche Bank said that this election will still repeat the historical pattern after the general election. It is only waiting for this election uncertainty to disappear for a longer time.

5, the stock market or reproduce the situation after the 2000 general election.

Paul Ashworth, chief American economist at Capital Economics, said that if Hilary wins, and Trump claims that the election is "manipulated" and filed a lawsuit against the court, then, as in the 2000 election, uncertainty clouds lasted for at least 1 months, during which the stock market collapsed.

He also said that in the long run, Hilary is not necessarily in favor of the stock market.

Real politics (Realpolitik) advocates that politicians should take the interests of the state as the highest consideration in engaging in internal affairs and diplomacy, instead of being influenced by the feelings, moral ethics, ideals and even ideology of the politicians.

Everything should serve the national interest.

National debt

A curve is a curve connected by the yield of bonds with different maturities but with the same risk and liquidity.

Functionally speaking, the yield curve can not only serve as a benchmark for pricing financial products, but also interact with macroeconomic policies and economic development.

The 2000 presidential election in the United States caused controversy between the two sides in the counting process of Florida. The Republican and democratic parties of the United States had gone through 36 days of the "century judicial war". In the end, the Supreme Court of the United States decided that Florida's manual recounting was "unconstitutional", resulting in Gore winning more votes than George W. Bush but losing the election.