Ye Tan: The Trend Of RMB Will Ultimately Depend On The Quality Of China'S Economy.

From the perspective of political donation and public opinion, entrepreneurs, Wall Street and economics are more inclined to Hilary.

If there is no accident, Hilary will be elected the first woman president in the history of the United States. There will be three major trends in the market.

Although Hilary is dishonest, trump is crazy, and a crazy man with no mouth is hard to control.

Hilary Yang, an analyst at CMC market in Singapore, said that from the market reaction, Mr Hilary has won.

First, the market has entered the carnival mode. After Hilary was elected, the carnival was restrained, and the so-called "see the light and death" market appeared.

The market is adjusting the layout, before Hilary is officially elected, through gold.

When the market changes, first harvest part of the wool.

FBI unexpectedly became a market leader.

On November 6th, FBI announced that it would not sue Hilary.

Starting in November 7th, COMX gold began to fall sharply, the first time in 8 days, and the largest single day decline in nearly five weeks.

Gold fell from $1305 an ounce in early November 7th to $1283 at 10:30 Beijing time in November 8th, and since October 14th, gold has entered a cycle of rising.

And a trading week before November 7th was the week when FBI announced the restart of Hilary's investigation, and gold prices continued to climb.

On the day of November 7th, the important employment figures released by the United States were very interesting.

According to the Fed's FED data, the US employment market index (LMCI) in September was 0.7, with an expected value of -1, and the former value was revised from -2.2 to -0.1.

The Fed has repeatedly said that the index is more truthfully reflecting the labor market situation than non-agricultural data.

After the publication of the data, the US dollar index expanded and increased by 97.86, and spot gold fell below US $1280; spot silver expanded, and the lowest point was 18 US dollars / ounce.

At the same time, U.S. stocks rose 7 in November, the largest single percentage increase in March 1st, and the CBOE volatility index plunged 17%, the largest single day decline in June 28th after the referendum in Europe.

The market advanced into the carnival mode after Hilary was elected.

The carnival is unlikely to last for a long time. CMC Markets analyst Margaret Yang said in a report that the market has long digested the possibility of Hilary winning. If she wins the election, there will be limited market space.

Barclay (BArclays Plc) pointed out in a report that the S & P 500 index will probably rise by 3% at most.

Within a few days of Hilary's election, the carnival will fade and the market will enter the next calm mode.

Second, after Hilary was elected, the market's risk tolerance increased, and the Fed raised interest rates more.

I value the US dollar and the Swiss Franc index. From the Japanese K-line, the US dollar began to enter a steady shock mode after falling two days against the Swiss franc. From the weekly K line, it was even more dramatic. There was no panic in the market and everything was in order. Hilary was elected and the Fed raised interest rates.

The Mexico peso, known as the currency of the US presidential election, had a panic in the wake of Trump's election prospects. Hilary's victory has increased, and the peso of Mexico will rise as well. Mexico has tightly tied itself to Hilary with Hilary.

Next, bond yields will rise.

Hilary was elected to boost the market's tolerance of volatility. Analysts at Bank of AmeriCA Corp. believe that the Democratic Party's victory will initially boost bond yields, because investors will sell bonds to embrace risky assets, which will trigger a global chain reaction, pushing up borrowing costs for individuals and businesses around the world. Those highly indebted businesses and individuals will be unlucky because the US sovereign debt is the global benchmark bond, and the rise in US sovereign debt costs means a global cost increase.

Deutsche Bank has an analysis report that, because of the prospect of policy continuity and predictability, the stock market and other risk assets will rebound. After that, Hilary's capital gains tax reform plan will have a negative effect on such risky assets for a long time. The biggest losers will be financial stocks and pharmaceutical stocks.

In other words, in

After the release of the dividend, global finance may enter a slow tightening cycle due to factors such as interest rate increase and tax revenue. Those who borrow heavily should be careful, and the new cycle will come soon.

Did not see that in the long run, the US stock has reached a high level? No apple or Buffett has a large number of hands.

Do you?

Third, the impact on the RMB exchange rate is neutral and negative.

After China's accession to SDR, the relatively stable RMB exchange rate is also in line with the interests of various economies including the United States.

Therefore, although the RMB will fluctuate in a certain period, it does not have the basis and possibility of a significant depreciation.

The report points out that there is a view that if Hilary is elected, the US dollar will rebound sharply and the renminbi will continue to go down; if Trump is elected, its position on trade may trigger trade friction, which will bring huge devaluation pressure to the RMB.

This expert points out that no matter who is elected, the economic policies of the United States will be committed to safeguarding their own interests.

On the other hand, the steady pace of China's economic pformation, upgrading and opening has provided a fundamental support for the long-term stability of the RMB.

Taking into account the latest import and export, foreign exchange reserves and other data, the trend of the RMB should not be taken lightly.

The data released by the central bank on 7 days showed that by the end of 10, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3 trillion and 121 billion, and the former was $3 trillion and 166 billion.

A decrease of US $45 billion 727 million from last month, which has shrunk for fourth consecutive months.

According to customs data, in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 19 trillion and 560 billion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 11 trillion and 220 billion yuan, down 2%; imports 8 trillion and 340 billion yuan, down 1.8%; trade surplus of 2 trillion and 880 billion yuan, narrowing 2.6%.