China'S Economy And Society: Labor Market Is Mixed

Over the past few years, the wind of one-sided pursuit of material rewards has risen a lot in our country. In this year's flood, a cadre of Yingcheng in Hubei asked for money first when he described the masses to take part in the rescue of the lake area. This shows that this trend has begun to break through the bottom line of rationality and personality in many places.

At the same time, for many years, nearly full employment, average monetary wages rose rapidly in recent years, and workers expected to rise.

All this has not only spawned an upsurge of entrepreneurship, but is also creating an increasing number of voluntary unemployment. Many workers prefer to temporarily lose their jobs, unwilling to "subdue" jobs below their expectations, or temporarily stop working to seek leisure and travel for a period of time, thereby adding to the shortage of labor in the labour market.

Since 1996, the registered unemployment rate of urban China has only exceeded 3% for the first time since 1983, and the first time it exceeded 4% in 2002. Now it has maintained a level of over 4% for ten consecutive years. Part of it should be attributed to the increase in voluntary unemployment.

The general idea put forward by the central economic work conference in 2015 included "social policy should be underpinning". It is entirely possible to further encourage the spread of voluntary unemployment. The structural change of new job opportunities and the downward trend of wage growth may also fuel the voluntary unemployment phenomenon, because the majority of new jobs are coming from small and medium enterprises and even small and micro enterprises, and quite a few workers choose jobs too far from major enterprises, state-owned enterprises, institutions and institutions.

In the major economic zones, the mentality of the Northeast residents is particularly prominent, and the industrial structure of the Northeast determines that the local economy will undergo profound pains in the current and future years. The local traditional industries concentrated by large enterprises will undergo a larger "subtraction". If too many workers stick to the shrinking traditional industries and new industries can not develop, the northeast economy will really sink for a long time.

In view of the second quarter of this year, the number of online recruitment jobs in Northeast China accounted for only 5% of the total national total, and the year-on-year growth rate (14%) was the lowest in all the major economic regions of the country (the second quarter of 2016, the report on China's job market sentiment index).

Looking at the labor market in China today, there is also joy and sorrow.

Those who like it, although the economic growth rate has declined compared with the previous years, the employment situation in the labor market has not deteriorated as a whole, and the expectation is not bad. It has effectively supported the residents' income, consumption and the stability of the whole national economy. The worry is that the one-sided pursuit of material reward is prevailing in the society, but the income growth rate is declining and the number of small and medium enterprises in the new employment opportunities is large.

Anyone who compares the strength of Japan's first generation of "enterprise soldiers" after Japan's war with the "new human race" after 90s, it is not difficult to understand the root cause of Japan's economic growth in the two periods.

The number of registered unemployed and registered unemployment rates in cities and towns in China has remained at a low level for many years, significantly lower than all other major powers except Japan.

By the end of 2015, the registered unemployment rate of China's cities and towns was 4.05%. Compared with the developed countries in the same period, the unemployment rate of the best economic states in the United States was 5.3%, Canada was 6.9%, Australia was 6.1%, Britain was 5.4%, Germany was 6%, France was 10.4%, and Italy was 11.9%,...

Spain is 22.1%.

At the end of the first quarter of this year, the registered unemployment rate in China's urban areas remained at a low level of 4.04%. In the first half of the year, 7 million 170 thousand new jobs were employed in urban areas, 71.7% of the annual target (the Ministry of social and social survey data), and the unemployment rate in the major cities of the whole country was basically stable at around 5.2%, while the unemployment rate in the 31 major cities was around 5% (the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman announced the July 15th press conference).

Further looking ahead to the trend of the labor market, and according to the report of the China employment market prosperity index released in the second quarter of 2016, according to the recruitment and Research Institute of Renmin University of China and the Zhaopin recruitment index, from the change of its CIER index (market recruitment demand / market application applicants), the overall employment situation in China's labor market has been out of the previous downturn, from 1.71 in the first quarter of 2016 to 1.71 in the second quarter of the year, that is, on average, there are 1.93 job requirements for each job application. The total recruitment demand of Zhaopin online recruitment has increased by 21% over the whole second quarter, indicating that the labor market is in good condition in the coming period.

Due to

The overall employment situation was good, in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of the whole country was only 8.7% in nominal growth (deducting the actual increase of 6.5%), and then supported the nominal growth of retail sales of consumer goods by 10.3% in the first half of the year (deducting the real growth of 9.7%), and then supported the better level of GDP growth in the first half of the year, and the future prospect is relatively optimistic in the major economies.

In the update of the world economic outlook released in July by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the actual GDP growth rates in the world in 2016 and 2017 were 0.1 percentage points lower than those predicted in the April world economic outlook. The predicted growth rate of the developed economies decreased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, and the overall growth rate of emerging market economies remained unchanged. In the past two years, the forecast of India's growth rate was down 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. The predicted growth rate in 2016 increased by 0.1 percentage points, while the predicted growth rate in 2017 did not change.

However, while the total demand for labor is stable, the demand structure has undergone significant changes.

As a result of the changes in the industrial situation and the impact of the entrepreneurial boom, and a series of measures taken by the government to encourage the development of SMEs, such as the promotion of SME development plan (2016-2020 years),

"Small and micro enterprises special action," special new special "small and medium-sized enterprise cultivation project, industrial cluster development capacity enhancement project 6 large projects and special operations, the new employment demand in small and medium enterprises accounted for relatively high, large enterprises accounted for only 2016 of the second quarter of the total recruitment demand of 5%, many employees more than 10000 traditional large enterprises are continuing to reduce the demand for labor, of which communications / telecommunications, finance, durable consumer goods (clothing / Textile / leather / furniture / household appliances) industry big enterprise recruitment demand fell 18%, 13% and 19% respectively.

Even in the financial industry with outstanding scale efficiency, the recruitment demand is mainly concentrated in medium-sized enterprises. The number of online jobs in the 100 to 499 scale enterprises has increased by 48% over the same period.

Over the past 30 years, the average number of Chinese workers

In 1978, the average wage of the national workers was 615 yuan and 29229 yuan in 2008.

From 1999 to 2008, the national real wage index (=100) reached two digits every year. In other words, the average annual real wage of the whole staff increased by two digits every year.

From the point of view of urban employment, the wage index (=100) increased from 2005 to 2014, higher than 1102007 and 2011 in the past two years, and higher than 131.2 in the 1202013 years.

During the same period, the wage increase of other economies was hardly comparable.

However, due to changes in the structure of labor demand, China's monetary wage growth is expected to slow down in the coming period.

In practice, most provinces in this year have postponed the release of the wage guidance line ("wage guidance line") which was usually published in the first half of the past year. As of July 20th, only five provinces and cities such as Tianjin, Beijing, Shandong, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had issued the 2016 wage guidance line, and most of them were lowering the baseline, in other words, the guiding line for lowering the wage increase.