Which Areas Of Sino US Trade Will Become The Victims Of The Trump Administration'S "Flag Worship"?

There is a good saying that it is not a problem that can be solved with money.

Trade conflicts are not like political conflicts or ideological conflicts. As long as the two sides are willing to sit down, they will always be resolved.

According to Trump's plan of administration, there will be a certain degree of political easing between China and the United States.

When the United States shrinks its fronts and focuses on China, China will gain more space and opportunities to engage in bilateral consultations with neighboring countries and seek to resolve the crisis in East Asia and South China Sea.

However, the structural contradiction between the United States and China determines that the two sides can not be at peace.

After the political confrontation has weakened, the two sides will shift their attention or focus to the economic conflict, focusing on the balance of trade.

A few months ago, when Trump accused China of manipulating the RMB exchange rate and robbing it,

When it comes to trade sanctions, it is likely that many people will feel that the man who runs around the train is too fond of getting a chance to get a real "knife".

Now that Trump has defeated Hilary, he really wants to become the "manipulator" of American diplomacy. His remarks on Sino US trade can no longer be regarded as "crazy madness".

As the incoming US president, Trump must consider how to fulfill his previous "Anti China promise" and how to deliver the answers to his supporters.

In the next few years, Sino US trade will usher in an unknown baptism of wind and rain.

According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, in 2015, the United States exported $116 billion 190 million to China, down 6.1%, imports from China 481 billion 880 million dollars, an increase of 3.2%, and the US trade deficit with China amounted to 365 billion 690 million US dollars, an increase of 6.6%.

From 1 to June 2016, the United States exported $51 billion 220 million to China, down by 8.2%, and the United States imported 212 billion 250 million from China, down 6.9%; the US trade deficit with China was 161 billion 30 million US dollars, down 6.5%.

This means that China is still the largest in the US.

Every year, the United States earns more than US $300 billion in trade balance from the United States.

The trade imbalance between the United States and China is quite similar to the British trade with China before the Opium War.

In that year, Britain bought a large number of tea, porcelain, and porcelain from China.

And so on, but did not attract the Chinese goods, resulting in a long-term trade deficit.

In order to reverse this deficit, British traders first developed opium trade and then pushed Congress to launch the Opium War.

Now, the United States also buys more and sells less in China, making the dollar flow into China. China has become the largest source of trade deficit in the United States.

This imbalance of trade will naturally arouse Americans' resentment.

Many domestic studies have pointed out that the US trade deficit with China is caused by many factors, such as severe export control in the United States, maladjustment in the US macro economy, adjustment of Asian industrial structure, expansion of investment in China by American enterprises, and low production cost in China.

But many Americans do not think so.

They recognized the fact that China's trade surplus with the US was not achieved by free trade and fair competition, but by the Chinese government's "illegal operation".

Trump Peter Navarro (Peter Navarro), a team of economic advisers, insisted on this view.

Peter Navarro is a professor of economics and public policy at University of California-Irvine.

In 2011, he emphasized in a paper that we must break a myth that China's main production advantage lies in cheap labor. In fact, the real trade deficit caused by the United States to China is a series of unfair trade policies implemented by the Chinese government, such as the implementation of export subsidies, theft of US technology and trade secrets, imitation of Nike and Chevrolet brands, manipulation of exchange rates, and forced pfer of specific technologies.

Navarro believes that these "illegal" trade policies have made Chinese products occupy the market, resulting in the closure of thousands of factories in the United States and the indirect victimized by millions of American workers.

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Originally, Navarro's speech was purely "self talk", and could not afford any political storm.

But things are changing now.

Navarro was mistakenly misted by trump for economic advisers, and Trump was mistakenly elected president.

If there is no accident, Navarro will probably enter the White House policy circle for us trade with China.

In other words, Navarro's analysis of China's trade with China is likely to become the background of the Trump administration's trade policy with China.

As a result, Navarro's analysis of China has become very important.

At least for now, his remarks are very much the same as Trump's.

In March this year, Navarro once said that if Trump was elected president, the US foreign policy would be strict and radical.

After his election, Trump, another Judy Shelton, was asked if Trump would really declare China a currency manipulator. "He is a man of words," said Judy Sheldon.

On this basis, the first storm of trade between China and the United States is likely to be the so-called "manipulation of exchange rate".

The so-called exchange rate manipulation is to deliberately raise or lower the exchange rate so as to stimulate the export of goods.

Over the past 20 years, if the US government believes that unfair trade policies in other countries have damaged the interests of the United States, the Ministry of finance will arrange for the Ministry of finance to investigate and collect evidence to determine whether there exists currency manipulation. If the Treasury decides that a country has currency manipulation and is approved by Congress, it will be included in the so-called "currency manipulator" list of the United States. Next, the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will separately trade sanctions against the "currency manipulator" according to the authorization of the Congress.

In fact, over the past 20 years, the United States has described China as a manipulator of currency manipulation, but every time it is thundered and raindrops are small.

Will it really come true after coming to power? According to the current US Treasury evaluation criteria, it is not enough to characterize China as a "currency manipulator", but with the consent of the Congress, this standard can be modified.

Moreover, both the house and Senate are occupied by the Republican majority. If the Trump administration is "iron core", it must fulfill its campaign promise. Its proposal to vote through the two chambers is much higher than that in the Obama era.

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to classify China as a "currency manipulator".

Trump believes that the root cause of the high unemployment rate in the United States lies in the high trade deficit with China.

Therefore, even if China can not be successfully listed as a "currency manipulator", he will also pressure China on the exchange rate in order to curb the import of Chinese goods and increase the employment rate at home.

With 133 billion 26 million US dollars in the first place, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and equipment and parts, with 103 billion 970 million dollars in the second place, furniture, bedding, lamps and lanterns, movable rooms and so on, ranked third in 28 billion 109 million dollars; toys, games or sporting goods ranked fourth in 24 billion 494 million dollars; shoes and boots, leggings and other items ranked fifth in 17 billion 277 million dollars; knitted or crocheted clothing and accessories were ranked sixth at 16 billion 289 million dollars; non knitted or non woven clothing and accessories ranked the first place in 14 billion 761 million dollars; plastic products occupied the throne in the US dollar; the vehicles and their accessories were placed in the position of US dollars; optical, photographic, medical and other equipment and accessories were placed in the position of US dollars. According to the US Department of commerce data, in 2015, China's list of merchandise exports to the United States, motor, electrical, audio equipment and its accessories.

In order to reduce the trade deficit, the Trump administration must reduce the import volume of China's bulk commodities through high tariffs.

Therefore, the Chinese commodities that flow to the US may face pressure of higher cost.

Among them, furniture, toys,

Labour intensive goods such as plastic products will be more stressed because of their high substitution.

As for motor, mechanical appliances, vehicles and other commodities, the situation may be slightly different.

If the Trump administration expands infrastructure, these commodities will not be suppressed, and they may also increase the number of exports to the United States.

Restricting imports of Chinese goods can only be a stalling tactic.

These goods cannot be produced by the United States themselves, imported from other countries, and they can not change the overall trade deficit.

The government of the grand canal must really want to make the United States "great", or fundamentally revitalize domestic industries and expand exports.

Therefore, apart from restricting the import of Chinese goods, the government will also strengthen the protection of core technologies and brands, further exert pressure on China's intellectual property rights, and at the same time require China to open more technology markets to the United States.

At that time, Chinese enterprises that rely too much on American technology and brands may face more brutal competition for survival.