Demand For Textile Enterprises Replenishment Gradually Increased, Short-Term Adjustment Of International Cotton Prices.

According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, 1-10 yuan, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) 484429 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% in nominal terms compared with the previous year, and 39288 yuan in online retail sales nationwide, an increase of 25.7% over the same period.

In October, the industrial added value of above scale industries increased by 6.1% in real terms compared with September. The growth rate was unchanged from September. The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 31119 billion yuan, up by 10% compared with nominal growth.

At the same time, as the US dollar continues to strengthen, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will continue to face downward pressure.

In terms of fundamentals, as of November 18th, the national cotton harvest has been completed 90%, the selling rate is 82.1%, the processing rate is 79.9%, the sales rate is 21.3%, and the overall progress is slower than that of the same period last year.

At present,

Spot quotation is relatively stable, "double 28", "double 29" picking cotton, machine picking cotton gross price quotations are 15600-16000 yuan / ton, 15300-15800 yuan / ton, the mainland seed cotton purchase price remained stable in the 3.5-3.8 yuan / Jin interval, the cotton price is about 15500 yuan / ton, small cotton in 15000 yuan / ton, a small part of the move to the mainland Xinjiang cotton prices rose faster, at 16500 yuan / ton.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) continued to rise and stood on the 5 day moving average following the huge oscillation last night on Friday. It will continue to rise in the short term, but we must pay close attention to the resistance at the recent high point of 17005 yuan / ton. In the near future, the demand for replenishment of textile enterprises is gradually increasing.

international

Short term or adjustment.

On the macro side, Japan's real GDP growth in the three quarter was 0.5%, and the annualized rate was 2.2%. In the third quarter of the third quarter of the euro area, the revision rate of the GDP quarter rate increased by 0.3%, which was in line with the expectation. In October, the US's final demand PPI remained unchanged than expected. The US new housing starts in October reached 1 million 323 thousand, a new high in 9 years.

Meanwhile, Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the relative acceleration of US dollar rate hike is reasonable.

In terms of fundamentals, according to the US Department of agriculture report, on November 2016 4-10, the net contract volume of US cotton exports was 48 thousand and 600 tons in 2016/17, an increase of 27% over the previous week, an increase of 7% over the previous four weeks average.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 74.36 cents / pound, up 2.32 cents / pound from the previous week.

Recently, India.

India's domestic cotton price rebounded.

In October 18th, the price of S-6 cotton in India was 75.07 cents / pound (calculated at 1% tariff, the cost of import was 13006 yuan / ton), up 0.68 cents / pound, or 0.91%, compared with last week.

Meanwhile, cotton prices continued to rise in Pakistan, and cotton yarn prices remained strong.

In October 17th, Pakistan's domestic cotton price was 70.99 cents / pound (calculated at 1% tariff, the cost of imports was 12321 yuan / ton), up 1.41 cents / pound, or 2.02%, compared with last week.

Technically speaking, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) rose sharply and fell on Friday, on the 5 day moving average. At the same time, it is at the upper limit of the recent fluctuation and is facing adjustment pressure in the short term.

In summary, the trend of international cotton prices is expected to be adjusted in the short term.