Short Term Trend Of Domestic Cotton Prices Is Strong, Foreign Cotton Prices Continue To Decline

This week, domestic cotton yarn prices continued to decline, polyester and short prices fell.

The international cotton price has dropped considerably. The New York cotton futures contract settlement price in December was 68.07 cents / pound, down 2.75 cents / pound, or 3.88%.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 13511 yuan / ton, down 343 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2.48%, lower than the domestic market 1760 yuan / ton, and the price difference expanded 352 yuan / ton compared with last week.

This week, the purchase price of new cotton in China stabilized and the spot price of lint stabilized, and futures prices rose slightly.

In November 4th, the average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland was 15271 yuan / ton, up 9 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.06%, up 2397 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 18.6%.

The national cotton trading market electronic matching pactions in November the average contract price of 14482 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 61 yuan / ton, or 0.42%, up 2564 yuan / ton, or 21.5%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price of 15155 yuan / ton in November, up 135 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.9%, up 2875 yuan / ton, or 23.4%.

The average purchase price of domestic grade 3 seed cotton is 3.64 yuan / kg (cotton lint 14523 yuan / ton), up 0.01 yuan / jin (last week, 7 yuan / ton of cotton lint), or 0.28%, up 0.88 yuan / kg (up to 2955 yuan / ton), or 31.88%.

Among them, the average price of cotton seed purchase in the mainland is 3.68 yuan / kg (14410 yuan / ton of cotton lint), up 0.02 yuan / kg (up 16 yuan / ton) last week, rising 0.55%, up 0.55% yuan, up 0.65 yuan / kg (folding cotton rose 2121 yuan / ton), or 21.45%; the average price of seed cotton purchase in Xinjiang was 3.62 yuan / kg (folding cotton 14565 yuan / ton), unchanged from last week.

Domestic cotton prices remain strong in the short term.

On the macro level, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in October 2016 was 51.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month, and it rose significantly above the critical point.

Judging from the classification index, the production index was 53.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating that manufacturing production maintained a relatively fast growth; the new order index was 52.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from last month.

The growth of market demand has accelerated; the stock index of raw materials is 48.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, which indicates that the shrinkage of main raw materials in manufacturing industry has decreased.

In terms of fundamentals, the purchase price of new cotton continued to stabilize, and the tentative increase was made, and the lint trade improved.

In November 4th, the price of picking up cotton was 40% yuan / kg in the northern part of Akesu, and the purchase price of 40 cotton seeds and 13% cotton seed rose to 7.30-7.45 yuan / kg in the southern part of Xinjiang, Kashi and other places, and the "double 28, double 29" hand picked cotton and wool price quotations were 15600-16000 yuan / ton, the machine picked cotton 15300-15500 yuan / ton, and the low quality cotton was still rare in Urumqi, Kuitun and other places in Northern Xinjiang.

At present, the inventory of mainland textile enterprises is decreasing, and the replenishment is coming soon. However, the quality and output of cotton in the inland cotton areas such as the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Valley have dropped significantly, and the acquisition and processing speed of seed cotton is also relatively slow. Therefore, Xinjiang cotton has become the only choice for textile enterprises.

The price increase and tight pportation capacity in Xinjiang will have a certain impact on the procurement of textile enterprises in the near future.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) is moving steadily this week. The 5, 10 and 20 day moving average are intertwined. Generally speaking, there is a slight upward trend.

To sum up, at present, the purchase of new flowers is coming to an end. The cost of new cotton is basically stable, and the inventory of textile enterprises is decreasing. It is expected that domestic cotton demand will gradually warm up in the short term, and cotton prices will remain strong in the short term.

International cotton prices will remain narrow in the short term.

On the macro side, in October 31st, the statistics released by the European Union Statistics Bureau showed that the GDP growth rate in the three quarter of the euro area was 0.3%, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year, all in line with the growth rate of the previous quarter.

On the same day, announced that the euro area CPI initial value increased 0.5% in October, representing a slight increase compared with 0.4% in September.

Analysts say the euro zone's economic growth is still slow and the recovery is not strong enough.

In November 3rd, the Federal Reserve announced that the current basic interest rate 0.25%-0.5% remained unchanged, while reiterating that the possibility of raising interest rates was further enhanced, and pointed out that inflation was further rising.

In terms of fundamentals, according to the US Department of agriculture report, on October 2016, 21-27, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 36 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 24% over the previous week, a decrease of 25% compared with that of the previous four weeks, and 28 thousand and 800 tons of land cotton pport volume in 2016/17, which was flat compared with the previous week, 18% lower than the average value of the previous four weeks. In 2016/17, the pport volume of Pima cotton was 1724 tons, which was 13% less than that of the previous week, 5% more than the average value of the previous four weeks.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 71.63 cents / pound, down 0.72 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

Cotton prices are lowered again.

In November 3rd, India's S-6 new flower ginning factory picked up a price of 38000 rupees / candi (72.70 cents / pound), down to the lowest point since the new flower market came to the end of 9.

The price of cotton yarn in India did not drop sharply with the fall in cotton prices.

On October 27-11, 2, the FOB price of 30S cotton combed yarn in India was $3 / kg, down 3.85% from last week, down 1.64% over the past three months.

The price of new flowers and cotton yarn has dropped in Pakistan, but the export price of cotton yarn is relatively stable.

On the technical side, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) fell sharply behind the short-term average, and will maintain a narrow fluctuation in the short term.

Although the US cotton export week data slightly improved compared with the previous week, the US dollar fell short of supporting cotton prices in the short term, but the northern hemisphere cotton concentrated on the market. In December, the probability of increasing interest rates increased and the cotton price was suppressed. It is expected that the international cotton price will remain oscillatory in the short term.