There Will Be A Gap In Domestic High-Grade Cotton And Cotton Prices Will Rise Next Year.

In December, most cotton picking in Xinjiang was basically over, and the acquisition of seed cotton was coming to an end. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the survey data of 1837 households in 87 counties and 14 provinces showed that as of December 2nd, the national cotton picking progress was 97.9%, down 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the past four years, of which the Xinjiang picking rate was 98.3%.

At present, the environment is still unsatisfactory. The textile and apparel market is not ideal, resulting in a conservative market for both buyers and sellers. It is difficult for textile companies to find large orders and long lists. The new single entry status is obviously less than the same period in previous years.

At present, the seed cotton in Xinjiang has basically been closed down. Only a few processing enterprises are still acquiring in some areas, and the cotton picking in the mainland is also close to completion. The cotton farmers' sales are not positive, and the progress is slower than that in Xinjiang.

With the cotton seed picking and acquisition coming to an end, the market focus shifted from seed cotton purchase to lint sales. Due to the different judgement of the market trend in the late stage and the urgency of their own funds and demand, the sentiment of the buyers and sellers of the market has been differentiated.

On the aspect of cotton enterprises, in November 24th, it was informed by the national development and Reform Commission that in 2017, the sale of cotton reserves will start from March 6th next year. The deadline will be tentatively scheduled for the end of August. The number of daily sales will be temporarily suspended by 30 thousand tons, and will be adjusted at any time as the situation changes. The market generally considers this to be the biggest bad news so far.

As a result, the sales period left to the market is only more than 3 months' time, which has added some pressure to the sales of manufacturers. Most cotton enterprises have generally accelerated the pace of sales. Some manufacturers have also lowered the price of lint sale so as to reduce the lint inventory as far as possible, and strive to achieve clearance and full payment before the early March.

In this regard, after the "golden nine silver ten" this year, the boom of the textile industry has not declined rapidly, but the situation is not good enough for the peak season and the more relaxed season. Worrying about the terminal demand, the cotton yarn market performance is not satisfactory, and the overall weak pattern is maintained.

According to the author's understanding, the current cotton picking in the mainland is basically ending, and the acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is coming to an end. It can be seen that the supply of new cotton is adequate, but the progress of the sale of cotton farmers is different. At present, the quality of the market is stable, and the price of the 3128-3129 grade cotton in Xinjiang is 15800-16000 yuan / ton.

The three level offer is 15600-15800 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than the same period in previous years.

Due to the tightening of the capital chain, textile enterprises can not get the money back. With the rising cost of raw materials, the strength of downstream orders continues to be weak. With the compression of profit margins, some textile enterprises have been forced to cut production and pfer products, further attacking the textile and garment market information.

Based on the high price of raw material market, the pressure of textile enterprises has been greatly increased. Textile enterprises in most areas maintain a benign social inventory and avoid high storage and pressure.

It is understood that the overall start-up rate of textile enterprises is maintained at around 6 per cent. In addition to regional and large-scale enterprises, there are only a few sporadic factories in full load, and most of them are half open and half stopped.

Based on the cotton textile industry terminal demand in the short term is difficult to improve signs, textile enterprises in the meager profit and even losses in the layout of the market outlook is not strong expectations, a few enterprise raw material inventory can be used next year, no hurry to purchase, most of the textile enterprises because of the busy season, insufficient orders, new cotton prices higher than psychological expectations, the cotton wait-and-see mood is strong, mostly with the purchase with the main, practical.

Limited, resulting in poor lint market pactions.

Generally speaking, the price of seed cotton is still high, and the enthusiasm of cotton enterprises is still low. The manufacturers have limited source of lint. In order to maintain normal start-up, there is still demand for cotton lint. The cotton enterprises will still have a strong price, and the tight pport capacity will also bring some support to the lint market.

Recent cotton futures prices are still frequent shocks, unable to support the lint spot market, and in October textile and apparel exports continued to decline, the export situation is still grim, coupled with the new round of reserve cotton rotation will open in March next year, some manufacturers have lower sales psychology has increased, will continue to inhibit the trend of lint market, it is expected that short-term lint prices will be stable or narrow overall oscillation.

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