The Demand For Domestic Textile And Apparel In 2017 Gradually Improved.

In 2016 1-10, China's textile and garment exports amounted to US $218 billion 236 million, down 7.12% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate of textile and garment exports was a continuous negative cumulative growth since May 2015.

The situation is not optimistic.

But we believe that the main reasons for the negative growth of China's textile and clothing exports in 2016 are two aspects.

First, the state's attention to the data Bureau's fraud in the second half of 2015 has increased. In the beginning of 2016, when the new Bureau of statistics came into power, the export data of this year had a man-made underestimation. On the other hand, the RMB showed a unilateral trend of devaluation this year. Because of this, the export volume of US dollar denominated export will also be distorted due to exchange rate factors. If the price is calculated in Renminbi or the quantity of textile and garment exports, the export situation of textile and clothing this year is not as bad as the data.

Looking forward to the textile and garment export market in 2017, we believe that the growth rate of China's textile and garment exports in 2017 is expected to gradually become more positive. The main reasons are as follows:

1. based on the data of the National Bureau of statistics for 16 years, the water is coming to an end, in 2016.

Low base numbers will be favorable for export data in 2017.

2. in the end of 2016, the European and American economies did show a trend of stabilization and recovery, which would lead to a substantial increase in terminal demand.

3. after the unilateral devaluation of the RMB in 2016, the depreciation of the RMB in 2017 was relatively limited or relatively limited. The US dollar export data had little room to fall due to exchange rate distortion, and the RMB depreciated substantially.

The role of export promotion may also be delayed.

From the domestic demand market, in 2016 1-10, the retail sales of clothing and footwear in China's Enterprises above Designated Size amounted to 11310 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year. The growth rate of 10% over the previous year has declined, of which, in October, the textile and garment retail sales grew by 7.5% over the same month, and rebounded slightly.

In our view, from the trend,

The slowdown in growth rate and the change of consumption structure are the general trend of the slowdown in traditional textile and clothing consumption. However, with the release of the national two child policy and the release of lagging consumer demand for home textiles such as real estate policies, we believe that China's textile and clothing market will remain relatively strong at the end of 2016 to the middle of 2017.

In 2017, the growth of retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear is expected to stabilize to 8%.

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Textile and garment industry is a traditional light industry in China, which is divided into textile industry and garment industry.

The textile industry refers to the general name of the production department that processes raw materials such as clothing and other textile products, and the clothing industry refers to the total production of textile products into clothing. From the perspective of the relationship between the upstream and downstream, the textile industry is the upstream industry of the garment manufacturing industry.

The absolute return rate of textile and garment industry in 2016 is -8.69%, which is basically the same as that of A shares. The absolute yield of textile manufacturing is -6.89%, which is better than that of -9.94% of apparel retail.

2017 clothing retail: focus on the following five directions:

The first is the integration of supply chain, reducing the loss of intermediate links and improving efficiency.

The second is the upgrading of consumption. Consumers are more likely to pursue structural opportunities brought about by quality and personalization.

In terms of supply chain integration, there is huge room for internal management to enhance efficiency and provide third party management services externally.

In terms of consumption upgrading, first of all, the baby industry and the full liberalization of the second child policy will boost the number of newborns, and the industry will continue to boom. Secondly, the domestic luxury consumption will be adjusted periodically, and the first generation will benefit from the luxury.

Third personalized demand promotes the development of designer's brand, while creating platform for designers and consumers to solve marketing, trading and other pain points, the market space is huge.

Fourth overseas brands expand the Chinese market and provide a broad space for the development of electricity suppliers.

Fifth high-speed growth of cross-border import electricity providers, tax reform new deal is expected to reshape the industry competition pattern.

Textile manufacturing in 2017: continue to pay attention to depreciation and cotton price rise. Since the 15 year reform, the depreciation of RMB has been over 11%. Devaluation is expected to increase export revenue and enhance the competitiveness of export commodities.

In the 16 years, domestic cotton prices rose sharply due to the reversal of supply and demand.

With the development of dumping and storage, the impact of national cotton reserves on the market will be smaller, while the market demand for cotton will remain stable in the medium and long term, and the supply area will shrink in terms of planting area and output trend. The medium and long-term cotton prices are expected to grow steadily and benefit the traditional textile leading enterprises.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.