Most PTA Manufacturers Started To Load At A Higher Level.

Last week, in the low price of polyester stocks and the repurchase of mainstream suppliers, the focus of PTA futures continued to shift. The main contract for May closed at 5470, and the 1-5 price difference maintained -168 low.

PTA processing error continues to widen.

Mainstream suppliers continue to take part in the repurchase, and some PTA producers who have stopped maintenance also participate in spot purchases.

During the week, spot trading and 05 basis difference were 240-250 yuan / ton, warehouse receipt negotiation and 01 basis difference mainstream were 65-70 yuan / ton.

The upstream PX's center of gravity moved upward. On Friday, Asia overnight CFR reported 851 US dollars / ton (+26), and the conversion cost of PTA was around 5337 yuan.

In December, 850 US dollars / ton CFR, January 860 US dollars / ton CFR.

Asia's PX load is relatively high, and new production capacity will also be released slowly, so the supply side is not favorable, and the PX price gap is limited.

During the week, Yizheng Petrochemical 650 thousand ton plant shutdown, is expected to restart 24 days; Zhuhai BP125 million tons plant plans to restart near 24 days; Ningbo Taiwan 1 million 200 thousand tons plant plan 24 days to stop maintenance for 5 days, the remaining PTA device load operation is relatively stable.

Hua Bin's 1 million 400 thousand ton / year device was originally planned to restart in the first quarter of 2017, and it will be postponed to April.

On the downstream side, the average production and sales of polyester filament on the last Friday working day were near 100-110%. Before the production and sale of polyester filament, the average production and sales were 90%, and the polyester load was reduced to 81.3%.

On the whole, December

The load is running well, but the PTA device is less maintenance. And because of the poor PTA spot processing, the PTA load is still at a higher level than the 600 yuan / ton, so the PTA neutral is weak.

In addition, the cost side PX support generally limits the PTA price rebounding space, and can focus on the positive opportunity of the 1-5 price difference.

As of the end of November, domestic

The average stock is 8 days, which is significantly lower than the 17 days of the same period last year. The mainstream stock of polyester staple fiber is near 12 days, and the overall inventory of polyester links is at a low level. Since December, with the frequent profits of the crude oil, the stock of polyester enterprises has been further declining, and some of them are even in a negative stock state.

This year, polyester polyester fiber and bottle flakes in China

The overall trend of the upward trend of shocks, many of which were affected by the collective price of the leading enterprises in the industry rose considerably, and production profits remained at a reasonable level.

By the end of November, the average production profit of polyester was 30 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, the loss of 150 yuan / ton has obviously improved, and the profit of some FDY varieties has reached 500-600 yuan / ton.

In the late stage, with the polyester social inventory maintained at a historical low level and production profits in good condition, the polyester starting rate will remain at a relatively high level near 82% in December. After entering the next year January, the polyester starting rate may be phased down due to the Spring Festival factor. However, after the Spring Festival, the polyester Union will immediately return to work on a large scale. Throughout 2017, the polyester industry will maintain a light load posture, laying a good foundation for the production and operation of the whole year, which is also the main reason for the growth of polyester production in 2017.

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