Domestic Long Staple Cotton Prices Rebounded Less, And Prices Fell To Mainstream.

According to traders in Henan, Shandong, Hubei and other places, at present, the quotations of 137, 237 and 336 of Xinjiang's long staple cotton in the 2016 year of the inland bank are concentrated at 21700-22000 yuan / ton, 20500-20800 yuan / ton, 19600-20000 yuan / ton (gross weight), neither with the strong rebound of Zheng cotton's main contract, but also with the further decline of seed cotton purchase price.

Due to the lack of support from textile mills and traders, the confidence of cotton processing enterprises is not strong enough to resist falling. On the one hand, the production of long staple cotton in China increased substantially in 2016, while consumption remained stable or even down to the continuing pressure on cotton enterprises. However, too high lint costs made the ginning mills unwilling to lose their money. In the face of the purchase price of seed cotton of 7.30-7.45 yuan / kg (31-32% lint), the Awati part of the cotton mill was hanged away from the war.

On the other hand, the number of Chinese buyers signing 2016 degrees SJV PIMA and Egyptian long staple cotton increased compared with the same period in 2015, and is expected to concentrate on arrival and delivery in 2-4 months. Moreover, in 2017, Australia cotton increased not only its planting area and output, but also some cotton could effectively replace the long staple cotton.

Since mid October, the price of 137 grade long staple cotton has dropped from 22200-22500 yuan / ton to below 22000 yuan / ton. Warehousing costs And so on, the amount of loss is generally 300-500 yuan / ton. The long staple cotton market in the first half of 2017 is still not optimistic and pessimistic.

　　 Henan A large cotton enterprise said that 1-3 months, the domestic textile enterprises JC50S and above the number of cotton yarn orders were not large, mainly old customers, high grade fabrics, fabrics and clothing to export to Europe and the United States and other developed countries, but for fear of Sino US trade war, RMB rate High volatility and Southeast Asian countries' order replacement capabilities and other reasons, high yarn production and marketing encounter more obvious pressure.

The 3000 tons of Awati long staple cotton purchased by the company will be moved to Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong before the end of March (the direct cost of the supervision database has reached 20500-20800 yuan / ton), so long as there is profit and no loss, we will try our best to ship the goods, and strive for the early realization of capital withdrawal, and the loan will be double zero.

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Near the end of the year, there seems to be a stir in the futures market. Or with the help of the black line, most of the commodities have gone up sharply, and cotton is no exception, of which the CF1705 contract has reached a maximum of 15510 yuan / ton. Just when we think that the purchase and sale market is too cold to see cotton prices, it rises with the strength of the market. Now the market is more concerned about whether it is possible for Zheng cotton to have another wave of market before the March 2017 cotton spinning.

In 2016, before the reserve cotton came out, the spot market was in urgent need of cotton and the price rose rapidly. At this time, Zheng cotton disk kept up with the spot market trend, and there were several successive trading restrictions. Careful analysis of the reasons is not difficult to find, at that time spinning enterprises inventory urgent, and the market spot supply is limited, especially high quality cotton is more scarce. Despite the fact that the cotton was delivered on time, it still failed to change the rhythm of Zheng cotton's rise. It can be seen that spot supply is tight enough to direct this wonderful repertoire.

Some people believe that in 2017, when cotton is empty, there may be a wave of bullish prices before March. A sample survey of the national cotton market monitoring system showed that as of January 10th, the average daily use of cotton in the enterprises surveyed was about 31.5 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong). According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 643 thousand tons.

The cotton industry stock situation of the main provinces in the country is different, and the cotton industry inventory in Fujian, Hebei and Jiangsu is relatively large. It is estimated that the stock of spinning enterprises will be able to support at least ten in February (if the time of the holiday is counted, the stock can be maintained until the end of February). Of course, commercial inventory has not been counted, but according to the progress of this year's cotton sales, commercial inventory is not likely to appear. Therefore, the probability of large-scale replenishment of spinning enterprises before the storage of cotton wheels is low.

Of course, there are many factors that affect cotton prices. But judging from the situation of last year's rotation, cotton prices this year do not meet the requirements of the previous year. In particular, the relevant departments have already checked a certain number of reserve cotton in advance. As long as the market price anomalies are in short supply, the unit can increase the volume of output at any time to ensure market stability. Therefore, before March 2017, the probability of Zheng cotton following the spot rose sharply, but did not exclude the middle of killing Cheng Yaojin, causing Zheng cotton and spot prices to be abnormal.

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