It Is Almost Impossible For The Central Bank To Tighten Monetary Policy This Year.

The level of financing in 2017 will remain at least 17 trillion and 800 billion yuan of total social financing and 12 trillion yuan of bank credit in 2016, and this excessive credit expansion is at an all-time high.

If the growth of financing in 2017 remains at this level, what is said is monetary policy tightening.

It can be said that both the overall rise in asset prices in recent years or the bubble in the domestic real estate market and the GDP growth in 2016 can maintain a 6.7% growth level, which is basically the result of the excessive expansion of such financing.

Therefore, in order to maintain steady growth of China's economy in 2017, the excessive expansion of financing is also the most important tool and power.

This is what the Central Bank of China has been emphasizing the premise of "stable" monetary policy.

Before the Spring Festival holiday, the Central Bank of China launched the temporary liquidity facility (TLF) operation tool, and also raised the intermediate lending convenience (MLF) interest rate.

On the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, the Central Bank of China further raised the reverse repo rate in the open market. The reverse repurchase operations on the 7 day, the 14 day and the 28 day were all raised by 10 basis points, raised from 2.25% to 2.35%, from 2.4% to 2.5%, and from 2.55% to 2.65%.

This is the first time China's central bank has restarted its repurchase since January 2015.

At the same time, according to relevant reports, the Central Bank of China will extend the standing loan interest rate to the local legal person financial institutions which do not meet the macro prudential requirements, adding 100 basis points on the above interest rates, and the interest rates for overnight, 7 and 1 months are 4.1%, 4.35% and 4.7% respectively.

After the Spring Festival, the movements and demands of the Central Bank of China, the interpretation of the market.

Some analysts believe that after the central bank launched the temporary liquidity facility (TLF) operation before the Spring Festival, the interim lending facility (MLF) operation and the increase of interest rate and other directional tool interest rates in the open market are another way to raise interest rates, which is also a signal of tightening monetary policy of the Central Bank of China.

This means that the liberal monetary policy since 2014 has ended.

In doing so, the stability of liquidity can be ensured in quantity, and the intention of "deleveraging" and "bubble suppression" can be reflected in price.

For China's central bank such a small action, the market interpretation, or basically over interpretation.

The interest rate of these open market operating tools is a sign of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China and the end of China's overly loose monetary policy.

However, since the central economic conference, the central bank has been emphasizing that this year's monetary policy is robust and neutral.

As pointed out by Zhang Xiaohui, assistant governor of the Central Bank of China, the so-called "stability" is mainly reflected in the stability of the total amount of money and credit, adapting to the new changes in the way of money supply, adjusting the money gate and maintaining the basic stability of liquidity.

Under the premise of "stability", we should further improve the quality and efficiency of the financial services real economy, prevent the "from reality to virtual", and strive to solve the imbalance between the financial and real economy.

Most market analysts believe that the recent central bank's move away from market orientation tools or interest rate increases is another form of interest rate increase because China's economy is beginning to stabilize and inflation expectations are rising.

However, this interpretation is also a bit too much.

Because the change of interest rate in open market operation tools is mainly to regulate the supply and demand of liquidity in financial institutions by regulating the positions of financial institutions.

It has little effect on the price of the financial market, not to mention the interest rate being raised by 10 basis points.

It can be seen that the Shanghai interest rate (Shibor), which has been running for many years, has limited impact on the price mechanism of the financial market, not to mention the effect of a slight increase in the interest rate of the open market operation of directional tools.

The current interest rate mechanism for China's financial market is still a one-year interest rate on bank deposits and loans, which is China's benchmark interest rate and China's benchmark interest rate.

The core of the price mechanism.

The price of China's financial market is adjusted with the change of interest rate.

Actually, this time

At this time, raising the interest rate of the open market operation of directional tools is the most worrying thing. It is estimated that the growth of total financing and the growth of bank credit in 2017 will exceed the level of 2016.

If so, how can the central bank's monetary policy be "stable"?

In view of the current economic situation in China, the market still focuses on the development of the real estate market.

Because, on the one hand, the government should squeeze out the bubble of real estate hot cities in 2016, and on the other hand, it hopes to resolve the three or four tier urban real estate market predicament.

Or how to make 2016 hot city real estate market crazy to spread to the three or four tier cities (the so-called real estate market, "city strategy" is the foreshadowing for this.)

Only in this way can China's economy grow steadily in the 2017, and this is also the best driving force for domestic banks to expand too.

Because, according to the current credit structure of domestic banks, there are not many changes in domestic banks, and in addition to the government's holding of housing prices, domestic banks will also assume that the price of housing will only rise in 2017 and not fall, so the three or four tier cities' bank's share of housing mortgage loans has become a battleground.

Especially in the face of the current domestic economy is still in a downturn cycle, asset return rate down gradually, domestic banks credit early, the better the proceeds.

Driven by this short-term performance and interest, under the condition that the government provides the bottom of the real estate price, the domestic banks

It is likely to stimulate faster growth in bank credit.

So the market has long expected that new loans in January may even exceed the scale of the same period last year.

In such a case, how can the PBOC stand by? So the interest rate rises through the open market operation of directional tools to warn commercial banks not to expand too quickly.

In this way, the central bank's assumption is to squeeze out the real estate bubble when the benchmark interest rate rises.

But this is almost impossible.

It is also because of the current government's attitude towards the real estate market, that is, it wants to squeeze out the real estate bubble and stabilize housing prices.

In January 2017, bank credit may grow again.

Data from the people's Bank of China show that in recent 3 years, the scale of new RMB loans increased rapidly in January.

In January 2016, it reached the highest monthly record of more than 2 trillion and 500 billion yuan since 2009.

In January 2015, the scale was 1 trillion and 470 billion, an increase of 289 billion 900 million yuan over the same period in 2014.

However, for the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China, how to curb domestic asset bubbles, how to squeeze out the real estate bubble, how to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, how to prevent financial from "real to virtual", how to prevent systemic risks, and how to ensure steady economic growth this year has been completely in a dilemma.

Therefore, it is quite uncertain whether the central bank's monetary policy will gradually tighten in 2017.

We have to go one step at a time.

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