Zheng Cotton Will Remain Strong As The New Rotation Library Starts.

Despite strong domestic and foreign cotton, Zheng cotton should not be overly optimistic about the 1 quarter of 2017. US cotton continued to refresh its high point in the past six months, injecting booster shots for Zheng cotton. After the Spring Festival, the Zheng cotton 1705 contract jumped high and broke up 16000 yuan / ton important resistance position. With the start of the new rotation library, Zheng cotton will remain strong.

Our country is still at present. Destocking At the same time, if we want to digest the inventory smoothly, we must control the output under the support of the import control policy. In the middle of March 2017, the new cotton in 2017/18 will start sowing. If the price of zhengmian period is too high before planting, it will give cotton farmers and cotton enterprises a relatively large profit margin. Then the increase in 2017/18 is a probability event. This will not be conducive to China's digestion of cotton stocks. If inventory can not be digested and output increases, cotton futures will fall down.

During the Spring Festival, US cotton prices continued to refresh the high level in the past six months, hitting 80 cents / pounds. CFTC's latest fund position report shows that as of January 31st, net cotton futures and options in the ICE period totaled more than 121427 net shares, second only to the 126217 hands in January 10th. CFTC huge net more than single means that the international capital to see more cotton after market, a bull market is brewing.

In mid December last year, with the end of the stock of spinning enterprises, spot trading became slack. Reserve cotton The pressure will increase sharply in March 6th. Zheng Mian 1705 contract two times to explore 16500 yuan / ton hindered high diving, the lowest drop to 14605 yuan / ton, and for a long time at 15000 yuan / ton under the oscillation. In stark contrast, domestic goods, though not priced, have not seen a reduction in shipments. The current price spreads are gradually expanding, and futures are in deep discount for a long time.

With the international cotton stabilized to stabilize, zhengcotton correction period is currently the basis, the 1705 contract to increase the warehouse, in January 23rd this year, the end of the forced break of the 60 day moving average, after the Spring Festival broke 16000 yuan / ton important pressure level. At present, the price of Xinjiang's machine picked cotton is about 16500 yuan / ton in 2016/17, and the price of zhengmian 1705 contract is still up to 500-800 yuan / ton.

At the same time, because of the strong international cotton prices, Import yarn Strengths continue to weaken. The CIF price of India C32S is 23000 yuan / ton, which is higher than the C32S price of our country 50 yuan / ton; Vietnam C32S CIF is 22800 yuan / ton, which is only 150 yuan / ton less than the C32S price of our country. The decrease in import yarn and increase in domestic consumption made Zheng cotton strong.

To sum up, most of the US cotton net is at a historical high level. The funds will see more international cotton, and the bull market will continue. The reduction in inventory and the increase in downstream consumption are the main factors to support domestic cotton prices. However, if the price is too high before spring sowing, it will lead to an increase in output and thus affect the progress of inventory. Therefore, the 1 quarter should not be overly optimistic.

When cotton is empty in 2017, there may be a wave of bullish prices before March. Of course, there are many factors that affect cotton prices. But judging from the situation of last year's rotation, cotton prices this year do not meet the requirements of the previous year. In particular, the relevant departments have already checked a certain number of reserve cotton in advance. As long as the market price anomalies are in short supply, the unit can increase the volume of output at any time to ensure market stability. Therefore, before March 2017, the probability of Zheng cotton following the spot rose sharply, but did not exclude the middle of killing Cheng Yaojin, causing Zheng cotton and spot prices to be abnormal.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.