The Trend Of Devaluation Into Real Value Stocks Can Record A Record Of Eight Consecutive Falls In The Growth Enterprise Market.

The valuation revision of GEM has started since 2015. After the correction of this year and a half, the situation of high valuation of gem is still grim. The valuation gap between large cap stocks and small cap stocks is very large, which is very special in the whole world.

The reasons for the high valuation mainly come from two aspects. On the one hand, A shares are difficult to list in the past. The listed stocks, especially small cap stocks, imply shell value. On the other hand, the A investors' structure is still dominated by retail investors, with a high turnover rate and a low emphasis on long-term valuations.

In January 19th, the turnover of the two cities fell below 300 billion yuan, a new low since November 21, 2014, and the A share market was in a depressed mood.

The adjustment of the growth enterprise market is not yet over, but in the whole year of 2017, it is still optimistic about the overall market. It is expected that the trend of A share will be similar to that after 2016.

But since last year, these two factors are changing.

IPO examination and approval accelerated the choice of investors, increased the demand for the company's texture, A shares.

Structural changes will occur, which is also a reflection of the real capital market.

On the other hand, the concept of market investors is changing gradually. Now there is less and less opportunities to find stocks that will continue to have high growth and attractive stocks in the future. More and more investors will return to look for investment opportunities from the perspective of value.

In the first half of this year, the trend of value stocks will be better.

For this year's overall market trend, it is still optimistic.

This year

There will be no sharp increase or sharp drop in the rate of investment. The investment strategy is biased towards the interval operation.

Looking back at last year's financial markets, US dollar, gold and commodities showed better performance, showing investors' risk aversion. However, after a year's speculation, these assets have not attracted much interest.

The era of global low interest rates is coming to an end, but market funds are still abundant. Investors are willing to increase their risk preferences. Under the background of market pressure and exposure to bond market risks, the equity market is a good opportunity for allocation.

There are mainly two types of industries that are more visible this year. One is the industry that involves large consumption. Some of them are less valued in terms of traditional consumption, but there are tangible results. Some of the new stocks are undervalued and need to be carefully selected.

Another is the PPP concept stocks. The market generally believes that the space of monetary policy is limited. Fiscal policy has become a powerful support for the economic upturn, which contains many investment opportunities.

Growth stocks will be relatively weak this year, and need to be laid out at the right time and at the right price. At present, mobile communications upgrading and new consumer electronics products may bring investment opportunities.

In the objective reality, the operation of enterprises has four modes of operation in their historical vertical and horizontal industries.

Investors, based on different world outlook, map out the objective world and form pactions. They often make a tendency choice under the four paths of mean reversion, great investment, short strategy and looking for growth singularity.

In addition, a large number of random pactions (especially in the Chinese market) are mixed, and single investment strategy is always difficult to maintain in a complex market environment.

Fundamentals

In terms of net investment and prayer, it is not effective.

The operation of the financial market tells us that the return on investment follows a power law rather than a normal distribution: a small number of companies win over all the other companies, and the extreme deviations of a small number of industries are often the source of the largest annual investment income (or loss).

From the long and medium term perspective, 2017 may be the first year to open up the golden age of equity investment: "big urbanization" is expected to replace "urbanization" as an important starting point for China's economic pformation and upgrading and efficiency improvement. After 2014, a substantial increase in housing prices in a population of more than 8 million cities has a solid basic foundation: continuous population inflow, division of labor efficiency, and agglomeration to create new productive forces.

And every year, China produces science and engineering graduates who are equivalent to the sum of the United States, Japan and Germany, which will further intensify this gathering and innovation, so that we can achieve new industrial upgrading in the fields of biomedicine, semiconductor, automobile and so on.

At the same time, the bursting of financial needs in the world's most populous middle class group will bring considerable incremental funding for future equity market investments.

So far, there has been little controversy over the macro fundamentals of the market in 2017. It is worth noting that in the process of sustained and mild economic recovery and marked improvement in the profitability of the upper and middle reaches, we have observed that the risk preference of the whole society represented by fixed asset investment has not increased significantly, which makes it possible for the economy to have a rare macro data that continues to improve in general and micro enterprises. This situation is probably conducive to the improvement of equity market risk preference.

The disadvantage is that from the historical comparison, the median market value and absolute valuation of the whole market are still at a relatively high level. The economic recovery and the financial level caused by financial leverage will continue to decline. The pressure on the high valuation industries and companies will continue to exist throughout the year.

Cross market, the Hong Kong stock market cyclical stocks may be a rare value depression.

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