The Adjustment Of The Growth Enterprise Market Is Not Yet In Place.

The gem has been down for more than a year. In the first quarter of this year, it is still looking for a bottom stage. The trend of bottom finding is also the most dismal. After full adjustment, it may gradually improve, and the probability of improvement in the second half is bigger than that in the first half.

In addition, the market is still in a structural opportunity market in 2017, but structural opportunities may be weaker than in 2016.

Entering the 2017, the A share market continued to be entangled.

On the one hand, the speed of market expansion is not decreasing. On the other hand, the second new plate has joined the fall ranks.

Why are gem and sub shares abandoned by the market? Will they continue to explore?

In 2016, most of the stock prices with outstanding performance have been lifted up. If we had enjoyed the "veal" of blue chips in the structural bull market last year, it would be more expensive now. If there was no layout last year, it would not be possible to make pallets this year.

So in the current environment, it is difficult to continue to go up.

In fact, our investment has entered a prisoner's dilemma: small business boards are afraid to touch, and value blue chips are no longer the bottom of the stock market crash.

In general, there are three reasons for the sub new shares and growth stocks falling. First, the IPO rhythm is faster and the pressure of the market is expected. The more and more early open board after the IPO listing can see that everyone is worried about the overvalued stock, while the IPO and the new shares are mostly in the innovation plate, which also poses a top pressure on the gem.

Finally, from a macro and policy oriented perspective, whether it is before joining the MSCI or the pension market and the tightening of regulation since the stock market crash, the macro factors led to the market style biased towards value investment and blue chip, which is equivalent to a blow to the small cap and the gem.

Secondly, the market is an obvious structural bull market in 2016, and its standard is performance bull, mainly to repair undervalued blue chips.

Against this background, I think that in 2017, especially in the first half of this year, the logic of valuation repair will continue. At the same time, whether the macro-economic bottom up will continue in 2016, we can see that the strong structural bull stocks have dropped sharply last year. Most agencies are expected to be more pessimistic than that. Adopting defensive strategies will also hurt small cap stocks and gem.

The direct cause of this decline in growth stocks and new new sectors is that the IPO issue is faster, and the pressure on the new sub sector and the growth enterprise market is relatively large.

In fact, since the second half of last year, expansion has been accelerating, and this time has become a three day, increasing pressure and tightening the market's nerves.

In addition to this incentive, the stock market before the launch of the peak, in the market environment is weak, the first time the new shares when they rush to kill more; in addition, the valuation level of the entire market is high, represented by the gem, growth stocks valuation is in the process of regression, when the paction is shrinking, pre holiday market downturn, the speed up.

The adjustment of the growth enterprise market is not yet in place. In the first quarter, it should continue to digest the overvalued value, and the general direction is still downward.

The main reason for the decline of the new shares is that the IPO is relatively fast, the funds in the whole market are tight, and the valuation of the new shares is relatively high, resulting in its unsustainable rise. While the gem has broken down, the valuation has come down to a higher level, but there is still the pressure of valuation.

Although we have investment in gem, at this stage, we will wait and see mainly, and we will not go to the bottom.

For the future market, I think if the gem continues to fall down, there may be a short-term rebound, but the big index may not be very optimistic.

In addition, the gem will be divided Market: some performance support.

Will fall, but more will enter the fall channel, even if rebounded, its intensity will not be very strong, may be gradually falling.

General manager of a private equity fund in Shanghai: quantitative change causes qualitative change. Now the decline is to pay for the high valuation in the past.

On the face of it, the reason for the recent decline in new shares is that the shares have risen too high before the growth of new shares. Most of the growth stocks are small and medium capitalization, and new shares are basically small and medium capitalization. Such a large volume will have a great impact on stock stocks.

This is actually a qualitative change caused by quantitative change, and now there are three new listings every day, which also affect the pricing of the original stock.

From the point of view of value investment, the supply of new shares is increasing. So many prospectuses can not be seen, so how can we vote? Since there is no way to value investment, we can only speculate or not.

and

It's just a presentable fact that the market is actually paying for the practice of overestimating the value of a year ago, three years ago, private placement and lifting the ban.

If there are no new shares, the price of the original growth stocks is already high, and the story telling will be long and the stock price will fall down. This is the first point. The second point is the cash flow and reduction of shareholders, but these are all good game rules. There is no way to do that unless the share price is very low, the shareholders do not want to reduce their holdings, but it is not yet there.

The lifting of the ban is also the same reason. Before the issuance was one year or three years, it would not immediately impact the market.

But one year or three years later, it will lift the ban and form a cycle.

Now the issue of new shares, so many companies together to open the barrier lake.

If you are an enterprise, you will also want to go to IPO when you see IPO speed so fast.

After that, the growth enterprise market will be divided. On the one hand, the limited funds will focus on the stocks with good fundamentals and valuations already in place, but the number of these stocks will be less and less. On the other hand, more stocks will be marginalized, which is a big trend.

In the short term, the pressure on the second board and the new board is still in the short term. It will take a long time to wait until Trump comes to power.

I think the main reasons for the decline are three aspects: first, the fuse is that the pace of expansion is relatively fast, the speed of issuance of IPO is fast, and the pressure on stock prices is relatively high. Secondly, after Trump took office, the market worried about Sino US trade war, the pressure of exchange rate and the uncertainty of Sino US relations increased, and adopted prudent strategies to the market. Finally, domestic management should take the initiative to prevent risks, leverage and maintain neutrality in order to deal with internal and external uncertainties.

It also depressed stock prices.

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