Interest Rate Hike And Liquidity Tightening, Exchange Rate Depreciation And Capital Outflow.

Driven by global economic recovery, strong stock market, L touch of domestic economy, reform of supply side, improvement of corporate profits, stabilization of RMB exchange rate and capital return, Hong Kong stocks have gone to bull market.

Will the structural bull market be far behind? The Hong Kong stock takes the bull, and the structural bull market of A shares can be expected.

Driven by the global economic recovery, the stock market is strong, the domestic economy L touches the bottom, the supply side reform business profits improve, the RMB exchange rate stabilizes, and the capital reflux, Hong Kong stock has gone to the bull market. Is the structural bull market of A shares still far away? In 2017, the market has a larger divergence on macro-economy. The main idea is to return to recession theory, economic L type and cyclical revival theory. The popular view is that as the real estate vehicle falls, the economy will return to recession in the 2-3 quarter, so that many bond markets will see the stock market empty.

International Economy: Global

Continued high innovation, Yellen said that raising interest rates should not wait too long, the US stock market has reached a new high.

In the United States and Europe, Japanese manufacturing PMI continued to rebound since June 2016, such as the replenishment of stock, the Trump effect, and the rise in commodity prices.

In January, the CPI in the US, UK and Germany were 2.5%, 1.8% and 1.9% respectively, up 0.4, 0.2 and 0 percentage points respectively.

Among them, in January, the US CPI was 0.6%, the biggest gain since February 2013, mainly due to the rising price of gasoline and other goods and services.

The United States in January PPI ring 0.6%, up 1.6%, all significantly exceed expectations.

When Yellen testified in the Senate in February 14th, he said that the US economy continued to grow and inflation was rising steadily. It was "unwise" to raise interest rates for too long. Then the market expected to raise interest rates.

He served as the new finance minister of the United States, advocating bilateral trade negotiations, and the primary task is tax reform.

The US stock market has gone up sharply and has gone up to a new high. The US dollar index has levelled off near 100, and the yield of the 10 year treasury bond in the United States has been around 2.4%, and the price of aluminum and other metals has risen slightly.

Domestic economy: PPICPI both rise, industry rise in the middle.

In January, CPI increased by 2.5% compared with the previous year, the former value was 2.1%; PPI was 6.9%, and the former value was 5.5%.

The Spring Festival factor, PPI pmission and so on push up CPI, the tail up factor, the oil price rise, the supply and demand improvement push PPI to exceed expectation.

In February, as the peak effect of Spring Festival subsided and the tail factor decreased, CPI was expected to fall.

But recently copper and steel prices have gone up, and PPI is expected to continue to rise.

In recent years, cement and steel prices have increased, construction machinery heavy truck sales are booming, middle industry boom has risen sharply and obviously exceeded expectations, mainly due to demand side industry boom and supply side capacity clearing, middle industry boom will continue until at least two quarters before and after, even if the return is also under the background of economic L type small cycle down.

This week real estate sales fell steadily, land pactions rebounded, passenger car sales fell, container freight index continued to rise, electricity consumption coal continued to rise, steel prices rose, vegetable meat prices fell.

Money: capital is going to be real and the demand for financing of the real economy has been restored.

In January, credit was lower than expected and pre value. But considering the window guidance from late January, the demand for real economy credit is likely to recover.

What is worth noting is that the long-term loans of non-financial companies are 1 trillion and 520 billion, which is significantly higher than 1 trillion and 60 billion of the same period last year. Besides the substitution effect of corporate financing to credit after the substantial rise in bond yields, it may be related to the increase in actual financing demand, such as investment impulses, PPP of infrastructure construction, the increase of equipment expenditure after the recovery of corporate profits, the improvement of export recovery enterprises, the decline in real lending rates, and so on.

Under the background of the regulation of the housing market, the banks have increased loans to the real economy, and the funds have shown signs of "going to reality".

Social harmony exceeded expectations, real estate regulation led to the development of loans outside the table, non-standard surge.

If credit unions exceed expectations in the first quarter, taking into account the lag effect of a quarter, the recovery of the economic cycle is expected to continue until the two quarter.

This week, the central bank restarted the reverse buyback, sequels MLF, but did not renew it to TLF.

The R007 interest rate this week was 3.1194%, up 50.98 from BP.10 last week, 3.3311% from the previous week, down 10.57 BP compared with last week.

The RMB exchange rate is stable in the short term.

Policy:

Tighten the risk of neutrality, the SFC tightened up the refinancing policy, and Shanghai state-owned enterprises mixed to accelerate.

The central bank issued the "monetary policy implementation report for the 4 quarter of 2016". Monetary policy put the risk prevention in a more important position, turning to a neutral or even neutral way. It stressed the dual pillar policy framework of "monetary policy + macro Prudential policy", adjusting the currency gate, limiting investment and buying property, and achieving "de going to reality".

The SFC amended the rules for the implementation of the listed companies' non-public development stocks, and issued a new refinancing policy through regulatory questions and answers.

The number of shares to be issued shall not exceed 20% of the total share capital issued before the issuance of the non-public offering shares, and the two is the application of the listed companies for the issuance, issuance of shares and non-public offering of shares. The resolution date of the board of directors of this issue shall not be less than 18 months from the date of the preceding raise of funds.

CICC has loosed its stock index futures.

Shanghai SASAC issued "Shanghai SASAC Party committee 2017 main points of work", developing mixed ownership economy, promoting pilot employee stock ownership and equity incentive, and intends to complete 2-3 listing or core business assets listing this year.

It is reported that the four major state-owned commercial banks have been tightening up on the financing of real estate, including the prohibition of "matching the capital with the land".

The CSRC did not release corporate bonds, and the real estate corporate bonds were not released.

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