China'S Economy Faces Two Major Problems In 2017: Trade And Finance.

After taking office, Trump will definitely put forward a trade protection policy against China, but if the policy of one size fits all is introduced, the US enterprises will not be spared.

So though his speech is high profile, it will not affect a lot of policies.

China will respond in a similar way.

Sino US trade war will happen, but it is expected to be more superficial, mostly media warfare, war of words and so on.

2017

Two major problems must be faced.

The first is trade and the second is international finance.

In terms of trade, the Trump administration has made a lot of promises in its campaign, and has spoken a lot of words.

They should try our bottom line and get some things done, so we are well prepared. Even in certain areas, they will stir up trouble and have a good way to deal with it.

In terms of international finance, the Fed will raise interest rates as a matter of great probability. When Trump comes to power, he will probably engage in large-scale fiscal stimulus. The economic principle tells us that the national economy will go up if fiscal stimulus is needed.

When the demand for money rises, the funds will flow back, and the Federal Reserve is independent of the US government, which will further raise interest rates. Therefore, there will be capital flows around the world, especially some fluctuations in the capital market, which naturally will indirectly affect our exchange rate market.

Trump claims to have a massive tax cut, which is a bit like the Reagan era in 1980, while the White House is making tax cuts. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, so that money is returned to the United States.

I believe China will be ready to solve these two problems.

But what is the most important challenge from the domestic level? Private investment and related fixed assets investment in manufacturing industry are growing too slowly, only between 2.5% and 3.2%. If we do not solve this problem, we will not be able to ensure the lasting power of economic growth.

I suggest that the government departments should ensure that there is no systematic nature.

And the bottom line of social events, "let the bullets fly".

Innovation comes from the grass-roots level, innovation comes from enterprises, innovation comes from young people, so that consumer finance innovation companies take a longer time to make the consumer financial industry further develop, and even surpass many developed countries' current practice, and can also provide some so-called "China programs" on a global scale.

In the economic game of 2017, China must win. Therefore, in 2017, we should not only continue the reform in 2016, but also be more targeted.

In view of the real backward production capacity, we must put forward strict measures.

At the same time, environmental monitoring will be strengthened, and eventually the backward production capacity will be shut down, and the good production capacity that will really be used for production will be raised.

This requires more involvement of the environmental protection department and the Ministry of industry and information, not just by the issuance of documents by the NDRC.

In addition, prices will not rise substantially in the mainland of China.

To prevent housing prices from skyrocketing, the fundamental measure is to increase the supply of land, depending on local governments, and on the reform of fiscal and taxation systems.

Only by matching the financial rights and powers of local governments can local governments rely on land finance.

But in the short term, it is not easy to do so.

What the mainland government can do now is to restrict purchases and limit the scale of pactions.

I think the price of second tier cities is hard to drop.

Leading to shrinking trading volume, housing prices in the first tier cities will still rise.

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