There Is A Gratifying Situation In The Financial Market.

On the 4 trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 50 points (+1.53%) a week, and the Hang Seng Index of Hongkong increased by nearly 500 points (+2.24%).

In terms of foreign exchange market, the renminbi and the US dollar both hit the biggest weekly gains since the July 2005 exchange rate reform, whether offshore or offshore.

In particular, the offshore market is even more volatile. The 3 trading days recaptured continuously from 6.95-6.78 to 18 juncture.

Then, how long will the stock exchange rise? I agree that if the renminbi fell unilaterally last year, the central bank must strengthen its anticipation management, and must also attack the ill prepared Renminbi short.

At the same time, the relevant departments should take the courage and wisdom to make great efforts to do well in the stock market and the property market, so that the common people will not go far across the ocean to do the so-called "investment" overseas.

First, look at the foreign exchange market. According to relevant reports, the renminbi has gone up sharply.

The intervention is the result of empty trampling. The question is how can it be trampled on by empty ends?

According to the report, Hongkong offshore RMB Hibor interest rate soared in recent days, overnight interest rates soared to 38.335%, 7 days interest rate 17.55%, 14 days interest rate 15.71%.

Offshore renminbi deposits are not large. Since the yuan joined the SDR in October 1st last year, the market has fallen unilaterally. The market certainly does not want to hold too much Renminbi and convert it into Hong Kong dollars or US dollars, which aggravate the scarcity of Renminbi.

At the beginning of the new year, the interbank offered rate at an extremely high level indicates a high degree of RMB scarcity in the foreign exchange market. The central bank can significantly increase the dependence of the offshore market on the central bank by simply draining away the renminbi in the Hongkong market, and then, through the guidance of the slowdown in the Chinese banks, it will melt into the market.

The way to intervene in the offshore RMB exchange rate is that this way of intervention can better save valuable foreign exchange reserves.

In fact, last year, the central bank also made a sharp rise in the RMB market in the offshore market and triggered a short burst.

This is the real background of "empty self trample".

Therefore, the conclusion is that the reckless rise of the Renminbi should be a temporary phenomenon.

Look at the stock market again.

There is no doubt that the "new exchange policy", which began on New Year's day, has an impact on the stock market.

It includes strengthening and limiting individual purchase of foreign exchange management, substantive examination of large capital outflows from domestic enterprises, and promoting the return of large domestic enterprises to domestic funds and settlement of foreign exchange.

Since the outside is temporarily blocked, then look back at the A share market, after all, the bottom of the global performance last year. After all, some stocks are at a historical low and have considerable investment value. It is better to go back to fry a A share.

This led to a record high in Moutai and other blue chip stocks, but on the other hand, look at the A share gains of the 4 trading day this year.

Outside the new shares, the best ones were small cap restructured stocks and junk stocks, and the worst ones were those.

This shows that the A share market is still dominated by Bo silly. Let's see if the volume has not been significantly enlarged, or is the stock fund enjoying itself.

Can such a rise last long?

The author agrees that, as the renminbi fell unilaterally last year, the central bank must strengthen its anticipation management, and must also fight against those ill intentioned Renminbi bears.

But from a fundamental point of view, the bottom of China's economic "L" type may linger for a long time. The road to recovery of the real economy is still very long, and the return on assets is still limited. Especially in the past few years, the amount of money we have issued is so large that the amount of money is much, and the money is not worth the money, which is a simple truth.

In the long run, letting people have certain overseas assets is an effective measure to resist the fall in their currencies.

According to the relevant statistics, China's domestic sector accounts for less than 2% of overseas assets, while Japan and South Korea share 15% and 20% respectively.

In the medium and long term, our residents still have the need to further configure overseas assets.

I sincerely hope that the policy of strictly prohibit domestic residents from buying and buying houses abroad is only temporary. At the same time, the departments concerned can take the courage and wisdom to make great efforts to improve the stock market and the property market, so that the ordinary people will not have to take risks because they are far more valuable than domestic investment in overseas property and other investment products.

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