Prospects For China'S Stock Market In 2017: There Will Be A Bull Market.

At the beginning of the year, many people are looking forward to the Chinese stock market in 2017. The more common view is that there will be a bull market.

Of course, whether the actual situation is true can only be tested by time.

Here, however, I want to analyze, if the stock market really has a market in 2017, what is its background? Or what strength is it to push the market up? Of course, the intensity of the stock market based on "asset shortage" should be limited. Under normal circumstances, it is impossible to bring the index's overall rise, and more will show the characteristics of interval shocks, bottom ups and structural rise.

If this can be regarded as a kind of "slow cow", then the stock market in 2017 has

That's also true.

Frankly speaking, the economic situation in 2017 is still very grim. The growth rate of GDP may be further reduced. After the fall in real estate investment, there is no time to find any industry's investment can be improved rapidly, so as to make up for the gap left by it.

The problem of sluggish private investment last year has not yet been fundamentally solved.

The rise in the prices of large raw materials will help to improve the operation of the upstream industry, but because the final demand is still insufficient, the manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches is facing greater difficulties.

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In general, the central economic work conference held at the end of last year set the monetary policy as "robust and neutral" and stressed the requirement of deleveraging.

Therefore, there is reason to think that the growth rate of M2 and new credit scale will have a certain decline.

Although there is no shortage of money, liquidity is relatively tight, which will not push the stock market forward.

The bull market and leveraged bull market that appeared in the first half of 2015 are absolutely impossible to reproduce.

So what did the stock market promote in 2017? In my view, the main driving force comes from the allocation demand caused by "asset shortage".

Theoretically, "asset shortage" is a kind of currency phenomenon. It is the situation that the quality of assets and the effective assets of the market are relatively short after the monetary issuance scale exceeds the asset growth over a long period of time.

In the past, the most common way for investors to deal with "asset shortage" is to buy real estate. This is also one reason why domestic property has been overheated for a period of time and prices are rising strongly.

However, after October last year, with the upgrading of real estate regulation, and the central economic work conference clearly stated that the principle of "housing is used to live", the role of real estate as an important asset allocation has been greatly reduced.

In addition,

The strengthening of supervision over the use of foreign exchange by residents, investment in overseas property, securities and insurance has been reiterated as a prohibition of sexual behavior, which means that the global allocation of domestic assets has begun to become less realistic.

Thus, for domestic residents, the types of assets that can be legally and effectively allocated are objectively few.

In the background of "asset shortage", investors with more assets are faced with a question of where to invest money.

Although the stock market risk is not small and uncertain, it is now at a relatively low level. In the "steady progress" environment, it still shows a certain allocation value.

Besides, although the real economy is not too prosperous, the efficiency of listed companies is not satisfactory, but there are still some undervalued or high growth companies showing some investment opportunities.

As long as people's expectations are not too high, it is still possible to obtain certain benefits under the premise of rational operation.

Therefore, when the money is relatively large and looking for a way out, the position of the stock market has been improved.

Under the background of "asset shortage", the stock market has become an important option for investors. It may be a kind of helplessness, but it is also a reality.

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