A Share Market Trend Is Twists And Turns, Bond Market Is The Most Sensitive To Raising Interest Rates.

In January 2017, the A share market trend was twists and turns.

From the perspective of fund yield, the average net returns of stocks, mixed and index (non ETF) are -1.03%, -0.16% and 1.29% respectively; the net value of bond funds has increased by 0.20%; and the QDII average net return rate of investing in overseas markets is 2.42%.

The interest rate adjustment in February 3rd, the worry of monetary policy will be the core of the short-term market trend, and the recent inflation will exacerbate this concern.

Therefore, when the short-term market is not yet optimistic, investors need to be patient.

Looking ahead to the market situation after February, we need to pay close attention to the significance of the policy signals brought by the central bank's upward reverse repurchase and SLF interest rate in February 3rd, and interest rate will be the core of the market trend in February.

The long term inventory that lasted for 5 years ended in the 2 quarter of 2016 and began in the 3 quarter.

It is expected to last for about half a year.

Inflation bottomed out in the 1 quarter of 2016, and economic growth began to pick up in the 3 quarter of last year.

From a cyclical point of view, the two consecutive quarters of economic recovery has confirmed the recovery trend, so there is interest rate adjustment in January.

Looking forward to the future, the recovery has gone through the medium range, and economic growth and inflation will continue upward in the future. Interest rates will still have room for adjustment.

Specific to the various markets, the stock market, the central bank's interest rate increase in the money market means that the interest rate of mortgage loans is substantially increased. If the interest rate continues to rise in the future, the government will impose a greater impact on the part of the second tier cities.

In addition, the rise in interest rates will cause commodity demand and price to be affected. If commodity prices are no longer rising, then the power of replenishing stock will gradually disappear, and the inventory cycle will soon end.

In the short term, interest rate upward has a negative impact on the stock market, but in the long run, if the government is determined to curb the property bubble and effectively guard against financial risks, funds will be expected to flow out of the real estate market, and the stock market is expected to benefit from the return of capital.

Therefore, in the medium term, the market is still a shock market pattern, maintaining a cautious allocation view and suggesting a balanced style.

In the bond market, theoretically raising interest rates is the most detrimental to the bond market, but the fact is that the bond market has the most sensitive reaction to raising interest rates.

In the process of deleveraging, short-term economic stability and long-term decline, interest rates are also short rise and fall.

Especially for China with high debt, the high interest rate is unbearable pain. We believe that 3.5% of the 10 year treasury bond interest rate has long-term allocation value.

The short-term bond market is stable, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate range 3.1%-3.5%. If the risk of economic decline increases, there will still be some opportunities for the domestic debt market.

Through the above analysis, we can see that in the current market environment, the fund investment should be mainly defensive.

Specific investment strategies are suggested to be allocated according to the diversification way of "stock ETF+ initiative management stock base + active management debt base + gold ETF+QDII and commodity fund", so as to fully disperse risks.

Stock ETF:

It will benefit from the drive of supply side reform, and it suggests that stock ETF should be screened in the sectors of policy benefit, finance and medicine.

Active management stocks: in order to leverage and restrain bubbles, the central bank will raise interest rates in disguised form. Interest rates will rise in a short term or have a negative impact on the stock market, but in the medium and long term, funds are expected to return to the stock market from real estate.

To maintain the judgment of the medium term shock market, it is suggested that investors reserve certain rights and interests fund positions and maintain a balanced style.

On the choice of fund varieties, the radical growth style can be concerned about Hongde optimization growth, long letter quantization of small and medium-sized plates, etc.; value style is concerned about the selection of gold and credit, Shanghai and Hong Kong in-depth research, nnoan flexible configuration, and the energy infrastructure of the Great Wall; the steady growth style is concerned about the selection of Guotai Jinlong Industry; balanced and flexible varieties are concerned about the new impetus of China and Europe, and the life of Yongfeng and so on.

Active management type debt basis: at present, it is still recommended to take defensive as the main factor. Investors are advised to choose bond funds with high proportion of interest rate debt and high credit rating and short duration.

On the choice of varieties, we should pay attention to Jiashi ultra short debt, Bo Shi anying, Jianxin steadily increasing profits, Huaxia cash and southern cash.

Gold ETF: Trump after he entered the White House,

The uncertainty may force the US dollar to weaken, and short term pressure on risky assets will benefit from gold as a hedge asset.

QDII and commodity funds: look for the long-term growth of the US economy and recommend continuing to pay attention to the QDII fund investing in the US stock market; in the US dollar appreciation channel, we can pay attention to the dollar high yield debt fund; consider the global risk increase background and asset allocation level, and also pay attention to the safe haven assets such as gold.

On the choice of varieties, we are concerned about Dacheng Nasdaq 100, Penghua global high yield debt and Noah global gold.

Commodity funds can focus on the Huaan Yi Fu gold ETF connection fund.

Because investors' preferences for risk and income are different, the above fund allocation strategies are divided into active, steady and conservative investment strategies, mainly through the allocation ratio of equity funds. The active management strategy is based on the 50-100% of the active management stock allocation, the robustness is 30-50%, the conservative type is 10-30%, and the proportion of equity asset allocation is 75%, 40% and 20% respectively.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.