The Performance Of Capital Market In 2017 Will Be Stronger Than That In 2016.

This year's asset allocation should take account of both equity and debt. Macroeconomic stabilization and recovery will also drive up the stock market. The allocation of equity assets can be increased appropriately. First, we must stabilize our business and wait for opportunities. The bond market, after a sharp decline in the end of last year, contains some investment opportunities, and the performance of the bond market can be expected. Fixed investment has natural safety cushion, and it is a better investment tool in the steady counter attack.

Monetary policy is also facing challenges. The role of monetary policy is restricted by two aspects. The first is that the strength of the US dollar has led to the pressure of RMB depreciation and the monetary policy should not be too loose. Second, inflation has risen, the premium of commodities has been rising, and the loose space of monetary policy has been affected. In 2017, fiscal policy will play a certain role in promoting the economy. At the same time, the dependence on monetary policy will weaken after the growth of economic growth itself.

The macro-economy is expected to stabilize and improve. All fields have undergone three or four years of reform, and the results have been basically played out. In terms of policy, the nineteen major convenes this year will introduce some new policies and initiatives to promote the economy; the competitiveness of China's manufacturing is stronger and stronger; the role of new technologies in driving economic growth is apparent; overseas countries are facing certain challenges and trade protectionism is on the rise, but developed countries and developing countries including the United States are pursuing it. Stimulating economy Overseas demand will play a positive role.

It is worth mentioning that the capital market can play a greater role in promoting China's economic development. The large scale of IPO financing and refinancing in the capital market has played a vital role in the adjustment of China's economic structure. The listed companies have reorganized some high-quality enterprises through refinancing to promote the optimal allocation of social resources. IPO financing has reduced the asset liability ratio of enterprises, played a positive role in the financial stability of enterprises, and promoted the development of enterprises; the bond market has also contributed to economic growth.

These financing increased the breadth and depth of the capital market, and provided stronger impetus to economic growth. For asset allocation in 2017, structured market will be a normal market, and capital market is expected to follow. Macro economy At the bottom, the structural opportunities will last longer. In general, this year tends to adopt an investment strategy that pays close attention to counterattack and balanced allocation and pays close attention to the rationality of valuation level.

This year, the external environment and internal environment are still facing many uncertainties. In the context of the frequent black swan event, the stock market downturn and the new driving force of economic growth in the past year, the preference for investment in the market has gradually been adjusted. The investment is still to be stable and the investment varieties with a margin of safety are to be found. At present, partial value stocks are more valued by the market. These stocks are guaranteed to have a margin of safety, and their performance is supported.

From the macro environment, China is still in the stage of replenishment in the first quarter, and the economic kinetic energy is not weak. In the middle of this year, real estate investment gradually contracted and declined slowly. inflation The overall trend is expected to be high and low. From the present point of view, the spanmission effect of PPI to CPI is not obvious. The CPI in 2017 will be higher than that in 2016, but the magnitude is not large. Based on the judgment of the economy and inflation, the central bank's monetary policy in 2017 did not have the basis of continuous tightening. The stability is still the main keynote. The central bank will continue to use the open market operation tools such as reverse repo and MLF to replace the drop in accuracy as the main way to put liquidity.

Uncertainties in the macro scale are more from overseas, including imported inflation risk and US trade protection policy, which need continuous tracking. If the OPEC reduction agreement is implemented smoothly, the structure of the supply and demand of crude oil will be improved. At present, the central market of oil prices is expected to go up to the US $50-55 range. If the upward trend is too large, the PPI and CPI will be higher than expected, and the monetary policy will be handicap. In addition, Trump tends to maintain the weak dollar to reduce the US trade deficit and even demand the appreciation of the RMB.

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