Textile Enterprise Raw Materials Procurement Needs Will Be Released Centrally.

In recent months, the domestic yarn production and sales situation is better, the cotton mill's start-up rate has increased, and some enterprises have been closed down to resume production. The current production and storage forecast has been adjusted to increase domestic cotton consumption by 84 thousand tons to 7 million 633 thousand tons in 2016, and the corresponding reduction of 85 thousand tons at the end of the year.

After adjustment, in 2016

Ending inventory of 8 million 457 thousand tons, a decrease of 85 thousand tons, inventory consumption ratio of 110.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points.

The end of 2017 inventory and inventory consumption ratio also adjusted accordingly.

Since February, the domestic textile market demand is stable, the start-up rate and production and sales rate of enterprises are at a good level, the yarn profit is considerable, but the inventory of cotton industry is low. In the early stage of cotton storage, the demand for raw material procurement of textile enterprises will be released centrally, so as to effectively digest the supply pressure caused by the storage of cotton reserves, and the domestic cotton price is expected to maintain stable operation. However, we still need to pay attention to the influence of macroeconomic factors such as the financial environment on the market.

(1) India's support for the international market is weakening.

India's new cotton market is speeding up.

Since February, the volume of India's new cotton market has increased to 32 thousand and 300 tons, and the stage of supply shortage has begun to improve.

High cotton prices in India have affected consumer demand.

India

The rise of cotton yarn price is high, but sales of cotton yarn are not ideal.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, China imported 416 thousand tons of cotton yarn from India in 2016, a decrease of 28.7% compared to the same period last year. In December 2016, the output of cotton yarn in India decreased by 4% compared with the same period last year.

The annual supply and demand balance is not strong enough for sustained high operation.

The US Department of agriculture's latest forecast shows that the cotton consumption in this year is 5 million 171 thousand tons, an increase of 109 thousand tons from January. The forecast for inventory, output, import volume and export volume remained unchanged at the beginning of the year. The supply of cotton in India was larger than the demand for 140 thousand tons. The supply and demand of the whole year were basically balanced, and cotton prices continued to operate at a high level.

With the acceleration of new cotton listing, India's domestic cotton prices have fallen.

(two) the booming yarn production and marketing drive domestic cotton demand to better.

After the Spring Festival, the yarn production and sales rate is higher and the rate of starting up is rising.

Cloth mill

Actively, the price of domestic cotton yarn is enlarged, yarn sales are smooth, profits are considerable, the rate of starting up is continuously improved, and demand for cotton is on the rise.

The national cotton market monitoring system data show that the import cost of India and Vietnam cotton yarn is significantly higher than that of domestic yarn, and the price of chemical fiber is higher than that of cotton.

(three) the centralized release of raw material procurement demand will effectively absorb the pressure of throwing storage.

According to the current domestic and foreign market prices, it is estimated that the auction price of the initial auction of cotton reserves will be 15300 yuan / ton, and the price advantage is obvious.

In addition, according to the national cotton market monitoring system, the inventory level of textile enterprises is generally low, and a considerable portion of raw material inventory of textile enterprises can only be maintained until late March, waiting for the reserve cotton rotation.

According to the annual consumption of 7 million 630 thousand tons, the average daily cotton consumption in China is 21 thousand tons, 147 thousand tons per week, equivalent to 30 thousand tons per day.

Taking into account that textile enterprises need to replenishment in the early stages of reserve cotton production, the demand for actual auction is relatively high, which can basically digest the supply pressure caused by throwing storage.

(four) there are different signals in Sino US financial policy, and market uncertainty increases.

In January 2017, when the central bank finally raised the winning rate of MLF, it also raised the SLF interest rate by 10 basis points, raising the interest rate of the reverse repurchase bid on the whole line in February 3rd, and raising 35 basis points overnight.

The central bank's move indicates that China's prevention and control risks have entered the second stage, and monetary policy has shifted from loose to neutral.

The policy mode began to shift from "quantity type" to "quantity plus price type".

Capital liquidity is tightening, and the cost of institutional investment and financing will further improve.

Trump said the US dollar had become "too strong", and US companies lost their competitive edge.

As a result, the Fed's interest rate hike will be under pressure.

This will trigger a game in two dimensions: first, if the US starts to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar; two, it will help the international commodity market "keep warm and warm up".

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said that if elected, the Dodd Frank act would be repealed.

If the bill is really abolished, the threshold for financial institutions to engage in proprietary trading will be reduced, which will contribute to the active international commodity market.

Because of the different signals of Sino US financial policy, the uncertainty of commodities increased and the risk increased.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.