Securities Market: Excessive Speculation Will Always Be Punished

Corresponding to the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect is the Hong Kong Stock Connect, that is, mainland investors can connect to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to participate in the trading of some Hong Kong stocks. In the early days of the opening of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the trading was far less active than the Shanghai Stock Connect and the Shenzhen Stock Connect. Especially in the early days when only the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened, the capital scale of Hong Kong going north far exceeded that of the mainland going south. Therefore, the trading of the Shanghai Stock Connect was much more active than that of the Hong Kong Stock Connect. This was basically the case when Shenzhen Hong Kong Link was opened. However, recently, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been significantly warming up. Judging from the daily trading situation, both the Hong Kong Stock Connect corresponding to the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Connect corresponding to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have seen a continuous net inflow of funds.

Although there is still a large amount of idle buying quota every day, the quota utilization rate is several times higher than that of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect. In terms of funds, the enthusiasm of the mainland to go south is much higher than that to go north. The activity of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has prompted many aspects of information, and it is also worth thinking about. Looking at the Hong Kong Stock Connect from another perspective will help people to grasp the characteristics of different markets more rationally, and also better understand the investment opportunities provided by different markets.

Originally in Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect When it was opened, people thought that a large amount of funds from Hong Kong would enter the mainland stock market, thus triggering the rise of the mainland stock market. But from the actual situation, this situation did not occur. On the contrary, it is the mainland's capital that has gradually increased its flow to the Hong Kong market through the Hong Kong Stock Connect. In this regard, people began to explain that domestic funds tried to avoid the risk of RMB devaluation by holding shares listed in Hong Kong, which seemed reasonable, but in fact, it could not stand a deep study.

The reason is very simple, because now Chinese shares in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accounted for more than half of the proportion, and as far as the final asset form of these shares is concerned, they are still RMB assets. Of course, when investors hold these Hong Kong stocks, if the RMB depreciates, the risk of depreciation can be avoided in theory, but the premise is that the prices of these stocks do not fall because of the depreciation of their corresponding RMB assets. Therefore, it is possible to hold Hong Kong stocks to avoid RMB depreciation, but the space is limited after all.

In addition, it has also been noted that AH shares Although the price difference between the two has narrowed, it is still about 20%. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, it is also to buy the shares of these listed companies. Buying H shares listed in Hong Kong is more cost-effective than buying A shares listed in the mainland. But there is also a problem here. Because there is no room for trading arbitrage between the mainland and Hong Kong, it can only be achieved when H shares rise faster than A shares to obtain excess returns. Obviously, such opportunities do not often occur. Therefore, in fact, the existence of AH price difference has not become a bright spot in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Some people thought that after the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the price difference of AH shares would be erased, but now it seems to be an illusion.

But objectively, now Hong Kong Stock Connect Very active, a large number of mainland funds enter the Hong Kong market through this channel. What is the reason? From the perspective of Hong Kong shares in the recent stage, many mainland funds have concentrated on speculating in new shares such as Zhou Heiya and Meitu. Because the trading rules of Hong Kong's stock market are different from those of the mainland, in some cases, as long as the trading behavior that conforms to the rules is generally not interfered with, this also leads to the new stock market there is stronger than that of the mainland, and the corresponding profit margin is also larger. Perhaps it is the difference in the trading system between the two places and the resulting regulatory rules that makes some mainland funds keen on the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Of course, if it is just hype, the bubble will burst in the end. In fact, people have already seen this situation. In any case, when the Hong Kong market has such operating space, Hong Kong Stock Connect has therefore won the favor of some mainland funds.

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