Domestic Dumping And Storage Focus On The US Department Of Agriculture'S Export Intention Report

Looking back on last year's national reserve and storage, cotton went smoothly to inventory. Even in July, due to the rapid rise in cotton prices, the downstream textile enterprises collectively wrote to request the government to intervene in cotton prices.

Finally, with the end of the delayed storage in September, the total output of cotton reached 2 million 659 thousand and 200 tons.

According to the announcement of the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance in November 24th last year, the new cotton market will not be arranged until the end of February this year.

In 2017, the sale and sale of cotton reserves will start in March 6th. As at the end of August, the number of daily sales will be temporarily suspended by 30 thousand tons.

If the cotton price rises rapidly at home and abroad for a period of time, or the turnover rate of the cotton auction sale will exceed 3 days a week or more than 70%, the number of listed companies will be increased appropriately, and the sales time will be extended.

As the national cotton store began to throw away stores in March 6th, we observed that the domestic delivery of goods was first and then cold.

In particular, Xinjiang cotton and the mainland cotton production division, a large number of real estate cotton racket also makes futures prices continue to be suppressed.

Zheng cotton's contract in recent months has paid more than 1100 yuan / ton to China's cotton price index, which is rare in history.

Since March 6th, the State Reserve has launched a new year of dumping and storage, which will last for 6 months. At the same time, the report on the annual planting area of the new crop will be published in the eastern time of the year March 31st.

For ICE cotton, the key is the United States announced in the evening of March 31st.

Planting area intention report.

At present, the average estimate of the US cotton planting area in the new year is 11 million 409 thousand acres, 10 million 75 thousand acres last year, and the Agricultural Outlook Forum of the US Department of agriculture is 11 million 500 thousand acres.

The market expects an increase of more than 13% in the new year's cotton planting area, which has led to the recent short line departure.

We think this pessimism is slightly overdone.

As of March 16th, US cotton exports accounted for 97% of the total annual export volume, up from 85% in the same period last year.

In the new year, the US cotton sales continue to have an overall preference. The US Department of agriculture has also been increasing its export forecasts in its supply and demand report.

The overall export reflects the strong demand of the world, and effectively reduces the inventory level of the US cotton, laying the spot level for the latter market.

In addition, the India market is also the focus of attention.

As India's monetary reform led to the reluctant sale of cotton growers, according to data from the India Cotton Corp (CCI), as of March, 16 Japanese New Year's new flower market in India totaled 4 million 50 thousand tons, of which 952 thousand tons were Gujarat.

In the same period of 2015/2016, the market volume was 4 million 177 thousand tons, and the progress of listing was lagged behind 127 thousand tons.

This has also made India's cotton price strong this year and has been improving in the near future.

Aftermarket if

Short supply exceeds expectations, and strong cotton prices are expected to last until the autumn.

The total supply and demand gap of domestic cotton market is more than 2 million tons this year. National reserve is very necessary for replenish the spot market.

Under the background of the reform of the agricultural supply side and the goal of the government going to stock, the national cotton storage will eventually surprise the market.

At present, the overall profit of textile enterprises is good, and the demand for purchasing is strong.

With the digestion of the country's cotton, the lowering of the stock level and the repair of the base difference, the market is expected to be stable and gradually stronger in the later period.

From the international market, the market is waiting for USDA's export intention report.

Before that, US cotton fluctuated slightly, while the net position of speculative capital on the disk was at a historically high level, reflecting that funds are more optimistic about the future international cotton market.

From the domestic market, in 2016, the stock exchange went smoothly, and the inventory was more successful. The Treasury sales ratio in the new year dropped by 41 percentage points to 135%, and the fundamentals further improved.

But in recent years, the impact of the systematic decline of commodities and the enthusiasm of the national cotton auction will be delayed, and the domestic cotton will go down.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.