How Long Can A Regulatory Storm Continue In Financial Markets?

This storm of financial regulation is not only deepened, but also will be more and more extensive.

For example, one line and three will give full play to financial supervision, and the central authorities will collectively learn about financial regulation and financial security. Leaders have made important speeches.

All this means that the central leaders have already referred to China's financial risks and financial security for a long time, and the deepening of financial regulation will become a trend.

For example, the leaders stressed in the fortieth collective learning meeting of the Central Political Bureau on Tuesday that accurate risk assessment is the prerequisite for ensuring financial safety.

The situation is good and financial risks are controllable.

But he also pointed out that under the combined influence of the pressure factors of international and domestic economic downfall, China's financial development is facing many risks and challenges.

Therefore, the central leaders put forward 6 tasks in maintaining financial security: deepening financial reform, strengthening financial supervision, taking measures to deal with risk points, creating a good financial environment for the development of real economy, improving the financial work ability of cadres, and strengthening the leadership of the party in financial work.

In addition, the leaders also stressed the need to take measures to deal with the risk points, control the increments, actively deal with the stock, crack down on the behavior of evading debts, control the leverage ratio, and strengthen the crackdown on market illegal activities.

That is to say, the central government is determined to comprehensively and severely rectify some of the chaos in the current financial market. This severe financial supervision storm will also blow deep into the distance.

In fact, the main problems facing this severe supervision storm are not only the same, but also should pay attention to the following aspects.

First, what is the risk point of China's financial market or the hidden danger of financial security? Why can we say that in recent decades, the global financial crisis has explode one after another? It can be said that before the outbreak of every financial crisis, whether the government or economists and market analysts would think that the financial market situation was good at that time, the risk was controllable and did not take into account the risk of financial crisis.

For example, before the outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008, how many leading economists in the world could predict the seriousness of the outbreak and outbreak of the financial crisis?

Because when it comes to systemic risk in financial markets, when it breaks out is unpredictable.

If the outbreak of systemic risk in financial market can be predicted, can this financial crisis happen? Why all the financial crises in history can not be predicted? The most important problem is that these predictions can only rely on historical experience, and the data obtained from their risk measurement models are very limited, and the future is always uncertain, and history will not repeat itself.

Therefore, to correctly judge the risks of current China's financial market and the hidden danger of financial safety, we must start from the source.

From the root, we can see the essence of the financial crisis, so that we can find the root of the problem.

The root of the financial crisis is the excessive expansion of credit, whether it is stock market, bank, trust, shadow banking, Internet.

And so on, as long as excessive credit expansion, regardless of prevention, financial risks accumulate to the end of the financial crisis did not erupt.

The US financial crisis in 2008 and the real estate bubble in Japan in the last century 90s are all the same.

The reason why China did not break out of the financial crisis in the past decades is that credit is limited to a certain extent under the planned economy, and there is no credit expansion.

Under such circumstances, of course, there will be no financial crisis, but since 2003, China's credit expansion has surpassed that of developed countries.

Excessive credit expansion has become the biggest preference of the current government, enterprises and families, and everyone hopes to overuse the current Chinese financial market.

If the government does not have a clear idea and does not really adopt institutional arrangements, this is the root cause of the future financial crisis in China.

Moreover, the severe supervision storm in the financial market is also a huge interest game. It will definitely threaten the interests of the huge vested interests in every aspect.

Whether it is banking supervision,

Or insurance regulation.

It is also quite uncertain whether regulators can withstand pressure from all sides in this severe financial regulation.

If so, severe financial supervision is also faced with the risk of halting.

For example, the current China's stock market and banks' strict supervision, which involve the interests of each other, is very complicated. When this severe financial regulation touches some major group interests, they will fight in various ways.

In recent years, the domestic stock market has strict supervision over president Liu, and he has been flying around with flying words.

As well as a warning, Guo Shuqing entered the SFC in November 2011 and vigorously implemented reforms. As a result, he was forced to be pferred for 17 months in March 2013.

Because he touched many people's great interests.

In March 17, 2013, Xiaogang took office and was in office for nearly 3 years.

Therefore, in the face of severe financial supervision and regulation of major interest games, how long a good regulator can persist is equally uncertain.

The central government must have firm support for this.

Moreover, for the current turmoil in China's financial supervision, it is not only a matter of minor matters and small problems that can be solved, but rather a comprehensive reflection on the current China's financial market system and the development of the financial market.

At present, many problems just look at the appearance and do not touch the core of the problem.

For example, the prevalence of shadow banking in China, the high risk of local government financing platform, and the confusion of financial products of banks are all rooted in a lucrative real estate market.

If this profiteering property market is still booming.

It is impossible to keep market capital from flowing into real estate.

If the profiteering property market vanishes, many financial chaos will also decrease.

Moreover, the current Chinese financial market is only learning foreign things. It is always believed that the products of foreign financial markets have to be developed in China, which is the deepening of China's financial market.

For example, developing the securitisation market and the derivatives market.

Therefore, only by reflecting deeply on these problems can we find a good answer.

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