Regulatory Coordination To Soft Landing, Leverage, Buy Stocks

The eighth "rich country forum" was held in Shanghai recently.

Fang Gang, chief economist of the central bank's monetary policy committee, Mr. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities, Jiang Chao, deputy director of Haitong Securities Research Institute, and other participants.

Fang Gang pointed out that looking back at the economic cycle since China's reform and opening up, from the perspective of economic growth rate, the short-term economy will continue to be depressed.

He believes that foreign exchange reserves will be reduced, partly by foreign investment by domestic enterprises, and partly by foreign investment.

These funds should be allowed to go out.

In the future, China does not even need foreign exchange reserves, because China's renminbi is the foreign exchange reserve of other countries, and the reduction of foreign exchange reserves is a good thing.

At the sub forum, Chen Shuliang, head of FOF, a rich country fund, said that asset allocation in large categories is equal to strategic allocation plus tactical allocation. The significance of asset allocation in large categories is to reduce the volatility of portfolio.

At present, the common asset allocation strategy in the market has bigger problems.

In his view, FOF has two bright points: first, asset allocation of large categories, and the launch of public offering FOF is the first product that can show the advantages of various fund companies.

Two, we can flatten the fluctuations and bring steady returns to investors.

Ren Zeping said that financial leverage would lead to a contraction of the entire monetary creation system, including the contraction of demand side.

Looking from the next year or so, investors should be alert to the impact of liquidity contraction on the capital market. The stock market may not make profits in terms of liquidity and institutional gambling in the future. The market will generally focus on shocks, and investors are advised to choose those who can cross the business cycle (the leftover is king) to give them premium and grow with them.

"If we said last year, we suggested that we should hold together in the direction of undervalued performance, and this year we should buy and buy leading stocks, because the leader can take the responsibility of integrating the whole industry in the future. After the two bottom of the market, other enterprises may not survive, but the leading enterprises can survive and finally harvest the market, so we must give the industry a premium."

Ren Zeping thinks.

Since the beginning of 2016, a series of major changes have taken place in China's macroeconomic, monetary policies, regulatory policies and capital markets, which profoundly affect all kinds of market investors.

This year's market has also been running for 5 months. It can be said that the differentiation is very huge.

Instead, there has been tremendous volatility.

So, at the moment, investors are most concerned about how the short-term market will fluctuate. For the medium and long term, how will the future economy change and how will the investment be dealt with? In the eighth rich country forum, 5 brokers chief analysts give their answers.

People in the industry say, "we feel very deeply about the recent capital market, including the stock market and bond market. We feel that opportunities are not great, and regulation has more or less influence."

Regarding this, Jiang Chao, deputy director of Haitong Securities Research Institute and chief macro bond analyst, believes that the direction of financial supervision is correct.

Because look at the experience of global economic recovery: several countries with good European stock markets have the process of financial deleveraging, which requires the financial sector to invest money where they need it, which will bring short-term pain. In general, this year's economy will not be as good as it was last year.

Last year, before the economy was low and high, this year there was a trend of high before and after low. Last year was the supply side reform. This year is deleveraging. Next year's hope is: this year we can complete the deleveraging, and next year we will catch the last train of the global recovery. This is our expectation.

"At present, we urgently need to make a cutting of government institutions and financial institutions, and truly break the rigid exchange in the financial field, so that we can really achieve the desired results and whether we can go to this stage. We will wait and see.

In the short term, we should be king of cash. If the financial industry breaks up just now, it will turn from cash to bonds at this time and then turn to stocks. In the long run, these assets will still be valuable, but we need to wait patiently. "

Jiang Chao further said.

Wang Han, deputy head of the Securities Research Institute and chief macroeconomic analyst, pointed out that in the short term, financial deleveraging is a relatively big economic impact.

But if we take a long view, the risk of high risk departments will drop, so that at least the whole economy will be bottomed out in the short term.

In addition, early deleveraging provides room for future interest rate changes.

Considering all these considerations, the overall economic growth in the one or two quarter of this year is a year-round high point. The three or four quarter will slow down, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about next year's economy.

In addition, Ren Zeping, managing director of Founder Securities and Research Institute,

The capacity to go with the entity is the key to the future.

If the entity goes to capacity, there will be the optimization of the industry competition pattern and the emergence of the leading position. Financial deleveraging will lead to the contraction of the whole monetary creation system, including the contraction of demand side.

In discussing the future of China's macro-economy, very important variables come from the second half of this year and the first half of next year. What can we do after the beginning of the new political cycle and whether we can improve efficiency through the supply side reform?

Obviously, from these chief points of view, we can see that the trend of the second half of this year is still relatively cautious.

Based on the above judgment, investors are more concerned about how big the assets in the second half and next one or two years should be allocated, especially the stock market investment opportunities in such a situation. Ren Zeping pointed out that the stock market will be a concussion in the future. Because you can not earn the money of excess liquidity and earn no money for gambling, you must look for those enterprises that pass through the cycle and remain the king, and give them a premium to grow with them.

At the beginning of last year, we talked about the direction of undervalued performance. This year, we want to buy and buy leading companies, because the leader will take the lead in integrating the whole industry in the future. After two rounds of exploration, other enterprises will not survive, and the leading enterprises can survive and finally harvest the market, so the premium will be given to the leading companies.

In the two quarter and the three quarter of this year, Xu Biao, chief analyst of Tien Feng securities strategy and research institute director general, is likely to become an inflection point for improving corporate profits.

Even if there is a setback in corporate earnings improvement, from a industry perspective, it may be hard to find a good industry from top to bottom, but bottom-up should be able to find it.

For example, new energy vehicles, sales volume last year and this year is still relatively good.

But it should be noted that the performance of the stock price may not be completely synchronized with the corporate profits. Many industries have been improving rapidly for three consecutive years, but the price fluctuation may have a trimming period, so it can not be fully equated.

In addition, Wang Shengze, chief strategist of Shen Wan Hongyuan, thinks that from the perspective of asset allocation, the global equity market is very high. Not only the United States, but by accident, there is an opportunity for the equity market from a year's time.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange of A shares is even lower than the global component index, which is controversial for consumer companies. Many people are worried about the high share price. But these companies are still facing the trend of basic trend, and the whole performance is exceeding expectations. The valuation of such companies is not excessive for many international companies in the world. 300.

"As for the cycle, there are still some industries that are still valuable, such as the thermal power industry, which is worth noting. The cost of the economic downturn is also downward. If the demand is stable, the supply side reform will focus on the electric power industry this year, and there will be a good performance trend.

Overall, opportunities will be more subdivided, and there will be structural opportunities for 20 sub sectors in the coming 2020. "

Wang Sheng further said.

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