China'S Stock Market Is Still Halfway Up. Ordinary Investors Need Cash.

In 2017, the global macro periphery was mild and internal contraction.

In the second half of the year, there will still be investment opportunities in the two tier market, whether in the equity market or fixed income market. Equity investment institutions are expected to increase the layout of the new three boards in 2017, and overseas mergers and acquisitions will continue to heat up. However, the issue of "cash is king" in the current hot market needs to be treated differently.

"Looking ahead, starting from the fourth quarter of this year, the downward pressure on the whole economy will become larger as a whole, and the economic downturn will still exist in 2018. The complete clearing of the economy will probably take place until 2019.

The throes of structural adjustment that we have been talking about happen exactly in the two years of 2017 and 2018. If there is a so-called labor pains in two years and we can get through it, I think the dawn will probably happen in 2019.

Coincidentally, it is a thorough 20 years of clearing. "

Guan Qingyou said.

"Guan Qing friends pointed out that since last year,

Began to take the initiative and gradually abandon the past quantitative easing policy.

Now the Fed has begun to talk about shrinking the scale. China has adjusted its monetary policy to a healthy neutral and the world has begun to shrink.

The impact of this contraction has emerged. Interest rates in the interbank market have started to rise. The bond market is under tremendous pressure and the financial bubble has been squeezed.

Guan Qing friends revealed that although the economic indicators in the first quarter have been improving, the drop in demand is actually taking place, and infrastructure investment has been strictly regulated.

We have recently lowered the entire fixed asset investment, real estate development investment and consumption expectations.

Severe real estate regulation will affect investment in real estate development, affect investment in fixed assets, and then affect the operation of the entire economy.

From the point of view of regulation, real estate and

Two aspects of ultra expected regulation on the two market impact immediate.

Guan Qingyou believes that after the 2015 stock market crash, the adjustment of the entire financial regulation has not been put into place. At present, the financial supervision idea of "macro prudential supervision + institutional supervision + functional supervision" is clear, but this regulatory system has not yet formed, so that when we strengthen financial supervision, we only pay attention to the issue of departmental coordination.

"The whole economy is a helpless abandonment and initiative contraction. It is still an initiative to pierce the bubble."

Guan Qingyou summed up this.

In terms of asset allocation, Guan Qing believes that under the background of intensification of the financial regulatory environment, it is difficult and costly for enterprises to issue bonds. Therefore, non-standard pfer is a strategy that Fortune Management Inc and high net worth customers must pform.

In the second half of this year, with the gradual weakening of the biggest negative factor of strengthening supervision, financial institutions may reconfigure bonds. For ultra high net worth customers and high net worth customers, they must also be non-standard pfer targets, and gradually configure some relatively stable bond products.

From the point of view of stock market, with liquidity contraction, regulation intensification and index fluctuation are in dilemma.

This suggests that investors with low risk preference should be cautious about the two tier market. For risk appetite investors, there are still many investment opportunities in the two quarter of this year.

"We recently sort out a number of stocks on the growth enterprise market which grew better and PE times 20-30 times, and their investment value has gradually emerged."

It is suggested that three directions should be focused on in the future:

First, technological innovation.

For ultra high net worth customers, it is necessary to set aside the mentality and elongate the cycle, and really look for those technological innovation industries that have both technical guidance and practical demand.

Second, consumption upgrading.

More and more three or four tier urban consumption upgrading has been very strong support for the local economy.

Third, industrial integration.

In fact, the contraction of supply simply does not play a fundamental role. Industrial integration requires capital and investment, which involves the participation of equity investment and the two level market.

Regarding the question of whether "cash is king", Guan Qing emphasizes that the word "cash is king" must be dynamic. Large financial institutions, high net worth clients and ordinary investors must have different investment strategies for the two tier market. For financial institutions, it is impossible for cash to be king, but ordinary investors may need cash as king.

In addition, Guan Qing friends emphasized the importance of overseas asset allocation.

Geographically, apart from paying more attention to traditional North America and Australia, more attention should be paid to Southeast Asia and Africa.

"We have communicated with many enterprises about this problem. Chinese enterprises and big investors are beginning to walk out. In Southeast Asia and Africa, this kind of overseas asset allocation is not just to buy his real estate investment fund, to buy a house, but also to have more investment in industry."

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.