Zheng Cotton Is Hard To Be Independent Or Will Soon Fall Below The Threshold Of 6 Million.

After May 1, the futures market represented by the black industry chain came out of a wave of sharp adjustment.

Zheng cotton was hard to get along with himself, and quickly fell below the threshold of 6 000 yuan, close to the next integer gate of 15000 yuan / ton.

But for the future market

We do not think we should be too pessimistic.

Zheng cotton did not have deep foundation.

At the end of the current year, cotton spot resources are reduced and prices are strong.

After the effective release of bad profits, Zheng cotton bought value.

The long term cycle of cotton prices is mainly due to the following two points: first, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio continues to decline.

Two is the downstream cotton mill profit, and in the low price reserve cotton continue to release policy dividend process, the industry continues to improve the pattern can continue.

The high point of the global cotton consumption ratio is in the year of 2014/15, close to 100%, and China's cotton inventory consumption ratio is as high as 197%.

But in the highest inventory position, cotton prices approached the historical lows at the end of February 2016, and the US cotton broke 55 cents / pound. Zheng cotton was below the 10000 yuan mark, and the fundamentals were bad enough to be effectively released on the price.

Due to the high negative correlation between cotton inventory consumption ratio and cotton price, the future market is in a negative correlation.

Compared to the downward trend, cotton price will gradually shift its focus.

Zheng cotton rose to around 13000 yuan / ton in May 2016. The annual axis of 2016/17 cotton is at 15000 yuan / ton line. We believe that the central axis of the price will be above 15000 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, due to the high probability of global cotton production increase and consumption almost flat in 2017/18, the inventory consumption ratio has weakened, and the increase of cotton prices in the future market will be limited.

In addition, since the second half of 2016, domestic cotton yarn production has been profitable, especially the national reserve releasing cotton reserve, which makes the cotton mill continue to get cheap raw material resources.

Judging from the price difference between the inside and outside yarn, the domestic yarn is generally higher than the same imported yarn before, but now it is completely reversed. This will help to restore the competitiveness of the domestic textile industry and stimulate the domestic market.

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This year, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts have reached record highs. As of 9, the number of warehouse receipts was 5092, totaling more than 200 thousand tons.

Affected by the pressure of warehouse receipts, Zheng cotton appeared in March, a wave of 16000 yuan / ton callback to 15000 yuan / ton market.

We believe that at present, we still insist on the negative impact of warehouse receipts on the disk, and this year's large volume of warehouse receipts has its particularity.

First, the Xinjiang interim pfer library is officially opened this year, which will undoubtedly facilitate the cotton delivery of Xinjiang's most important cotton producing base.

Two, the cotton weather in Xinjiang cotton area is normal in 2016/17. The warehouse receipt has more water deliveries, and the enthusiasm of the enterprises has been greatly enhanced.

Three, there are some changes in the cotton sales mode in recent years. The enterprises that participate in the spot price increase and are more and more recognized by the market. Therefore, the demand for the warehouse receipt as the delivery target is increasing.

At present, the price of 15000 yuan / ton of Zheng cotton contract in May is almost equal to that of the reserve ship, and the acceptance rate of the warehouse will be increased. Therefore, it is unreasonable to continue to hype the warehouse receipt pressure and ignore the other factors.

Domestic textile off-season is coming, market pessimism expectations for future consumption are beginning to appear, and industrial slump also deepens the market's concern for the future.

Recently, domestic cotton yarn prices are obviously callback.

US cotton is still selling well in new and old businesses, and it is playing a game of high output in the next year.

If the US cotton planting data continue to maintain the expected increase of 20% in the early stage, the 80 cents / pound will be difficult to pass. Otherwise, the US cotton will break through this high position.

Although imports of cotton in India have increased significantly over the past years, there is a continuing controversy over the fact that the fact that their domestic production increase has been delayed for a relatively slow progress, but is now gradually being realized. Cotton prices are showing signs of stopping and downgrading, and yarn prices are also falling simultaneously.

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