In May, PTA Maintained Its Inventory Structure. The Hidden Danger Of Polyester Stocks Has Not Yet Been Eliminated.

Since the beginning of March, the load of polyester plant has been maintained at a high level. The current 87% load start (total capacity of 46 million 400 thousand tons) is also in the same period of nearly 5 years.

The high level of pet load is not related to the good cash flow condition. Since the beginning of the year, the average profit of POY, FDY and DTY is 540 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton and 490 yuan / ton respectively.

The average profit is 430 yuan / ton, which has a qualitative leap compared with the loss in the one or two quarter of last year.

Although polyester cash flow maintained a good level, polyester stock pressure remained high. As of May 5th, the average stock of the filament was 3 days higher than that of the same period last year, and the stock of short fiber was 10 days higher than that of the same period last year.

There are two main reasons for the poor stock removal of PET: first, the overall load of polyester keeps high and the supply side has an increment this year; secondly, in the face of the high profit of polyester products, the downstream textile factories are not very well received, so they are more cautious in purchasing and maintain the rigid demand.

As early as May, the seasonal downward trend of downstream demand is expected to affect the sales mentality of polyester. Therefore, the polyester factory has obvious profit promotion action recently, but the actual production and marketing of polyester has not been substantially improved. Polyester stocks continue to rise in the past two weeks.

More than 95% of PTA demand is concentrated on production.

In order to ensure the stable supply of raw materials, 80% to 90% of the raw material sources of polyester factories are supplied by contract goods, leaving only a small part of them purchased in the spot market. The goods in the spot market can only account for 10% to 20% of the total trade volume of PTA. Although the volume of circulation is not large, the actual paction price is actually generated, and the monthly settlement price of the contract goods also basically refers to the average paction price of the spot market in that month.

The high load of polyester plant can only indicate that polyester has a good demand for PTA. However, because polyester stock has always been in high position, it occupies a lot of cash flow in polyester factories, and the upstream raw materials are in a clear downward trend. This leads to the prudent control of raw material inventory in polyester factories, keeping low raw material inventory, and maintaining the rigid demand procurement as the main strategy for downstream polyester factories.

Therefore, since the two quarter, polyester load has remained high, but the PTA spot market has not been very hot.

Although the current PTA

Still in the low level of 300 to 400 yuan / ton operation, but in the absence of speculative demand pull, PTA processing fee rebound space is not expected.

On the whole, the international oil price callback to the previous level of the last year's yield reduction agreement is expected to be fully released, and the processing profit of naphtha PX PTA link has been fully compressed. Even if the PTA fundamentals lack the upward driving force in the short term, the PTA price will continue to explore the limited space from the angle of safety margin. In the medium to long term, the 4700 to 4800 yuan / ton interval has much value.

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