Is The Stock Market Miserable?

In the long run, assets must be held.

Cash is the largest pit in the age of paper money. The loss of paper money for a long time is the atonement for the greedy human nature.

In the US dollar, for example, in the early twentieth Century, the US dollar money supply was only 7 billion US dollars. After one hundred years, the money supply increased by more than 1900 times. The purchasing power of the US dollar declined rapidly, and the green money was decoupled from gold.

The green flower of green flower is the representative of greed of human nature.

Take China's broad money as an example, even if the growth rate has dropped to its lowest level since 1990 (11% in 2016), it will double to 155 trillion on the basis of 155 trillion in seven years, reaching 310 trillion.

By then, how much will Beijing's housing price go to and how much will Hetian jade price increase? Last year's loan data exceeded the published figures.

According to Li Xunlei's statement, the bank's new loans last year appeared to be only 12 trillion and 500 billion, but if the local government bonds purchased by banks and the decrease in foreign exchange accounted for, it is estimated that banks will have more than 20 trillion capital invested in the market.

At present, household deposits are 60 trillion, 200 times that of 30 years ago, while GDP growth was only about 90 times in the same period.

Such a huge amount of money will inevitably bring about debt growth and asset price rise.

The rise of real estate in recent two years is mainly due to the excessive growth of shadow banking money.

Jiang Chao said that in the 16 years the banking system increased only 15 trillion of the deposits, only to support the issuance of up to 15 trillion of the credit, more than 10 trillion, in fact, is created through the shadow banking, we through a variety of innovative financial instruments to absorb the money and then credit.

Look at the growth of the currency, can house prices rise?

Can it not rise? Although the stock index is volatile, we can see the strength of the stock market from the number of new shares issued.

Human nature is not worth trusting, so paper money is not worth trusting.

From time to time, high-quality assets are much better than paper money.

Therefore, I advocate holding most of the assets, and paper notes hold 10%.

However, in the short term, deleveraging and strict supervision will destroy asset bubbles. In the first tier cities in 2012, the real estate market and the current bond market are also the same. A careless person will become a leek chivalry. In the process of deleveraging, no asset can be bought.

In April, from the SFC to the CBRC, all of them are under strong supervision and deleveraging. If the CBRC's seven documents are put in place, from real estate to stock market, the price of assets on the periphery will slide like an avalanche.

The hearts of investors have been hoisted and relaxed. They can not be put in place because the reality is too skinny, and the debt ratio is too high. If deleveraging is real, the debt bubble will collapse first.

This is not only an unbearable burden for investors, but also a sound of supervision.

The interpretation of policies is also different.

In April 25th, the central government held a meeting of the Political Bureau, and put forward "to attach great importance to the prevention and control of financial risks, strengthen supervision and coordination, strengthen the real economy of financial services, and intensify the work of punishing illegal and illegal activities".

In view of the prevention and control of financial risks, many people will interpret them according to their wishes, and the leverage of the SFC and the CBRC will come to an end.

My understanding is that deleveraging is going to be strict or strict, but no matter how strict it is, we must keep the bottom line of systemic financial risks.

For example, the decline of hundreds of enterprises in the stock market has nothing to do with it, but the risk of overall market collapse can never happen; the two banks will make bank assets and

Balance, but there will be no general decline in bank profits.

Some assets that are highly risky and have little relevance to the system will end.

For example, some people bought the investment goods of Pan Asia exchange, and the possibility of getting the principal back is very small.

Bought the fast deer P2P product, is also crying father shout mother.

After buying the Xiong an concept stock at the end of April, it is estimated that the curse has not yet passed.

The current regulation will not be irrational. On the basis of maintaining the bottom line security, we should gradually deleverage and complete the monetary and economic pformation at the lowest cost.

In the process, some asset prices plummeted, while others can enjoy the premium of China's economic development for a long time.

But the value investment has ushered in the spring, and domestic consumption and high-end manufacturing stocks have been grabbed by birds and dogs.

Some of my friends are very busy now, and good assets are now being grabbed.

Gold is also garbage in garbage, and gold is also gold in rubbish dump.

A professional and honest investment institution is a professional gold collector.

For investors, the most uncertain factor is policy.

Next, there are two major taxes related to billions of lives: property tax and inheritance tax. When the wealth tax is introduced, it is China.

Roughly completed.

By that time, people with insufficient cash flow will just be able to cope with these two taxes. You have ten apartments without cash. How can you pay taxes?

For non professional investors, the price of housing is higher, and do not put money in the basket of real estate.

Apart from 10% of cash, 90% of assets must be held to avoid currency devaluation.

These assets must be assets that can stand the test of time. To the real estate of the core cities of the urban agglomeration, or the blue chips that will not go bankrupt for ten years, and the future Tencent Alibaba of the innovation group, find such assets and hold them tightly.

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