ICE And Zheng Cotton Jointly Sang A Big Play For The Cotton Market.

Judging from the disk and fundamentals, nearly 100% of the capital control market caused by speculative funds is different from that of ICE. Zheng cotton has a reserve cotton wheel, Xinjiang cotton price increases over 1000 yuan / ton, the supply of high quality cotton is getting tighter, and the national monetary policy in April has been adjusted to expand the table and other favorable support. The company is stronger than ICE. Therefore, even though the ICE main contract for July expanded in May 16th, Zheng cotton's performance was relatively stable, and the two sides were repeatedly fighting and stalemate in the 16000-16200 yuan / ton box.

Short-term

Violent inflation has overdrawn the digestion ability of textile enterprises and middlemen. Although the bulls will still try their best to fight back, the focus of Zheng cotton is about to move down, and the callback space has expanded to become a probability event.

First, the production and sale of cotton yarn and grey fabric are weak.

The center of gravity continued to callback, which could not support the paction price and spot market of Zheng cotton and reserve cotton.

According to the textile enterprises in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, since May, the sales of domestic and foreign sales have declined significantly. Apart from the orders of C32S, C40S and JC21S yarn, the demand for other cotton branches is shrinking, while the order is "short, flat and fast".

Since the next ten days of April, the 6/7/8 month's India cotton yarn FOB and CNF price quotations have been reduced greatly, and the competitiveness of India and Pakistan yarn is back to the bottom. The domestic yarn is facing the situation of congestion and extrusion.

Since early May,

General combs are generally down by 200-300 yuan / ton; cotton yarn above JC40S has been cut by 300-500 yuan / ton, and this decline is hard to show signs of stabilization.

Second, Zheng cotton's huge warehouse receipt has become a stumbling block for cotton price rebound.

According to statistics, as of May 16th, the amount of zhengmian warehouse receipt was 5176 (-112 Zhang), 207 thousand tons of lint cotton, 1369 effective warehouse receipts, 54 thousand and 800 tons of lint cotton, two total 6545 (about 261 thousand and 800 tons), although the warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous few days, but the number of warehouse receipts of more than 260 thousand tons is still overwhelming.

From the survey point of view, with the CF1709 contract breaking 16000 yuan / ton, the current price is close and convergent, the warehouse receipt turns to be more and more difficult; moreover, the enthusiasm of traders' hedging and futures arbitrage pactions is constantly stimulated, and the warehouse receipts will flow larger than the outflow, and the real market rate will further improve.

Third, the impact of the central bank's monetary tightening on the cotton and textile enterprises will be gradually reflected.

Since the first quarter of 2017, money issuance has continued to tighten, but it suddenly expanded in April.

Industry analysis, before the expansion of the table in April, the Central Bank of the 2 and March was reduced.

The central bank in the first quarter monetary policy implementation report released doubts that the seasonal fluctuation of cash supply is an important reason for the contraction in February. Accelerated fiscal expenditure is an important reason for the contraction in March. It also indicated that "the Central Bank of China does not necessarily mean tightening monetary policy". However, since the end of March, the CBRC has issued regulatory documents densely, which has been summed up as "three violations", "three arbitrages" and "four misconducts". Supervision has been set up for three stages, namely, self inspection, supervision and rectification.

Fourth, in 2017, the sale of cotton reserves is completely capable of meeting the needs of cotton spinning enterprises.

According to statistics, as of the end of April, the regulatory inventory in the territory was about 880 thousand tons, lower than the market expectation, and also one of the factors that led to the soaring of Zhengzhou cotton. However, considering the calculation of the average daily output of 30 thousand tons of registered resources in 5-8 months, there will be more than 2 million 500 thousand tons of cotton stored in the supply market. If the total amount of cotton is estimated to be no less than 1 million tons according to 40% Xinjiang cotton, and at least 30-40 tons of cotton imports in 5-8 months, the total supply of high-quality cotton will not be less than 2 million tons, so there is much time to test whether there is a gap or gap.

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