The Textile Enterprises Are In The Seasonal Off-Season To Buy Lint And Keep "Buying And Using".
Last week, Zheng cotton futures were at a low concussion. During the 1709 contract period, the price of the main contract was 15055 yuan / ton. As of last Friday, the 1709 main contract of Zheng cotton futures contract closed at 15135 yuan / ton, down 0.2% during the week, and the trend was low throughout the week. From the basic point of view, there are no new profits in the cotton market in recent years, and the potential negative factors are gradually accumulating, including the expansion of new cotton, the good growth of cotton, the value-added tax reform in July 1st and the tax reform in India in July 1st.
In addition, the recent decline in cotton prices has also put pressure on domestic cotton prices and spot prices. Huang Xiaoyi, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that the recent ICE cotton is also in a downward trend, which is mainly attributed to the bad atmosphere of the USDA report and the increase of the new cotton planting area in the world, and the new cotton growing in all cotton producing countries is in good condition. Because the domestic cotton market is in the off-season of purchase and sale, the state stores and cotton have steadily entered the market, and the market is not enough to support it. Therefore, the external market has been falling successively, which not only dragged down Zheng cotton, but also brought pressure to spot cotton prices.
On the spot side, the downstream textile enterprises are in the seasonal off-season, and purchasing lint remains "follow suit with buy". Because of the serious contradiction between the quality and structure of cotton in China at present, the quality of cotton is low and the price is strong, which is concerned by all parties. According to statistics from zhuochuang, the average price of domestic grade 3128 cotton is 15730 yuan / ton, which is 0.14% lower than that of last month.
For now, the future will affect the country. cotton The key factor of the price trend is the trend of the US cotton futures price and the domestic reserve cotton throwing and storing. Huang Xiaoyi said that the current domestic cotton market is mainly supplied by national cotton reserves and Xinjiang cotton in 2016/2017, and the import cotton market is dragged down by downstream demand and quota insufficiency. Its cotton storage in China is favored by downstream enterprises because of its superior price performance ratio. Since the beginning of the rotation, Xinjiang cotton has basically been sold.
Xinjiang cotton spot is affected by the quality difference, the price gap is bigger. Among them, the high quality 29 or more lint inland price is maintained at 16500 yuan / ton, and the resource less than 27 is quoted at 15900-16200 yuan / ton, and the spanaction is profitable. Downstream demand, the seasonal off-season restrictions on the size of the textile enterprises stocking, but according to the order of steady procurement situation still maintained, the impact of order spanactions under the cotton lint is still the quality factor.
"At present, the cotton market is still market supply and Reserve cotton Supply is going hand in hand, and the pressure of futures warehouse receipts is still at the highest level in the same period since the launch of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while the downstream consumption situation has not improved significantly, and the domestic and foreign cotton yarn spreads are still in an upside down state. Wang Yan said that although the recent sharp fall in prices has accelerated. Warehouse receipt Outflow, the short-term price of a certain support; but in the order of the warehouse receipt to a lower level, the expected price is more difficult to go up, concerned about the competition in the vicinity of the world.
For the market outlook, Huang Xiaoyi analysis said that by the end of August, the State Cotton store will support the supply of domestic cotton. Due to meeting the demand of textile enterprises for cotton blending, the spanaction rate is expected to be basically stable, and the fluctuation space of cotton prices will be small. In September, in the new and old cotton market alternation period, cotton prices were slightly increased as a result of the early preparation of downstream enterprises. Because of the new cotton planting area of 46 million 380 thousand mu this year, an increase of 8.7% over the same period, and the increase in production is expected to be strong. Therefore, in the medium to long term, the price will fluctuate around the -17000 yuan / ton interval of 15000 yuan / ton.
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