Gem Has Become The "Black Swan" Frequent Haunt.

The top-level design is not in place, not only can not make the gem become a pioneering spirit of the gas station, but will be the original promising star of the business together in the bubble.

In this regard, the "Black Swans" on the performance are not necessarily dreadful, and the "grey rhinoceros" on the system is more dangerous.

Although today's GEM has become the "black swan" frequent haunt, in my view, for gem, the biggest risk is not "black swan" but "grey rhinoceros".

Michel Walker, an American scholar, pointed out that the occurrence of "grey rhinoceros" is often traceable and warning. It does not affect its importance because people do not want to talk much.

In this regard, the international financial crisis in 2008 is the most realistic lesson.

The 5.1% big crash in July 17th almost killed the rebound of the gem for half a year.

This year, the gem index has fallen by 15.58%, the bottom of the world's major market index.

Since the establishment of the growth enterprise market, over 5% of the decline has been accumulated 41 times, more than half of which occurred in the two years since the stock market crash in 2015.

The trigger for the fall of the growth enterprise board is followed by performance bombs.

Gem's four major weighting units Weng's shares, LAN Si technology, music network, and trimer environmental protection are not only negative news constantly, but also successive decline in performance 73.71%-77.86%, or even a huge loss of 637 million yuan to 642 million yuan "flash collapse" phenomenon.

Major fund companies have lowered their valuation of related leading stocks.

People have lost hope not only for the so-called high growth valuation, but also for their business models and financial statements.

Impairment of large goodwill to net profit and

The tremendous impact has become the "Damour's sword" hanging on the gem.

Statistics show that as of mid July, the Shanghai stock market earnings ratio was 16.35 times, and the growth enterprise market was 47.70 times.

Although it is unparalleled in May 2015 with the highest 142 times in the history of gem, compared with 60 times in January 2015 and 29 times at the end of November 2011, it can still be said to be halfway up the hill.

Most of the gem's high valuations are told by storytelling.

In fact, the growth of GEM companies in recent years is largely due to the expansion of mergers and acquisitions.

In 2016, 132 newly acquired companies and 71 listed companies in 2015 contributed 12 billion 470 million yuan in profit growth, accounting for 67% of the total growth of the gem.

Up to now, only 77 mergers and acquisitions have been completed or are being audited in 2017.

It is not hard to imagine that the contribution of mergers and acquisitions to the growth of the growth enterprise market in the year to 2018 will be greatly reduced.

If there is a lack of endogenous growth base, and only by capital operation to contribute to performance and raise valuations, this storytelling mode will eventually be abandoned or the trend of the times.

The story telling mode is not only the "cause" of the growth enterprise bubble, but rather the "fruit" caused by the institutional defects of the gem.

China's growth enterprise market has violated its original intention from the beginning. The threshold for entry to the market is too high, and the word "Chuang" has been abandoned.

This not only leads to the phenomenon of falsification for listed money, but also happens after the listing.

Whether it is the early 28 quarters of the gem, or today's 4 leading 5 leading companies, all of them have been planted on storytelling.

This fully shows that the failure of the top-level design will not only make the gem become a better filling station for pioneering spirit, but will drown the promising star in the bubble.

In this regard, the "black swan" on the performance is not necessarily terrible, and the "grey rhinoceros" on the system is even more dangerous.

Recently, a fashionable economist put forward "abolition of the issuance examination committee to get through the new three boards to the motherboard supply mode".

As soon as the voice dropped, the SFC incorporated the trial board of the growth enterprise board and the motherboard.

This is why people who are disappointed with the growth of the gem can not help but wonder: is management willing to abandon and abandon the gem, which is not enough? In fact, the merger of the issuance examination committee is not the abolition of the issuance examination committee, so that the enterprises that are eligible to meet the listing requirements will have no choice in the gem, small board or motherboard.

According to the spirit of the central financial work conference on the initiative to guard against systemic financial risks,

The most important reform is not to skip the gem, let the new three boards go directly to the main board, but let the gem really become an important channel to broaden and broaden. Not only does the new three board enterprises meet the conditions of the gem listing, but it can be more easily promoted to the gem than the main board, and the listed companies of the GEM board should be able to quickly withdraw the new three boards once they fail to meet the listing requirements.

In my opinion, the ecological development of the growth enterprise market has a tendency to move forward, retreat and go up and down, which is more apparent than the seemingly revolutionary reform of the gem, the small board and the motherboard. In essence, it is no more than a logical number of reform ideas, which intentionally or unintentionally compel the growth enterprise board to gradually become self destructive. Otherwise, if we allow the black swan risk of the gem to develop into a holistic "grey rhinoceros" risk, that is the real terrible systemic risk.

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