China'S Cotton Enterprises Are Blocked By Another Raw Material Channel.

According to foreign businessmen and importers, since July, China's textile enterprises and middlemen have adopted the "fixed price" way to sign the 7/8 month sailing date. The enthusiasm of Brazil cotton has obviously recovered, and the "ON-CALL" spot price contract has been greatly reduced, making preparations for the 9 and October cotton flower supply in China in the middle of October.

　　據分析，一方面無論從技術面、主產棉區天氣及美元指數跌破95大關來看，ICE棉花期貨進入上升通道，主力合約破68美分乃至70、72阻力位的概率大;另一方面由于港口保稅和即期裝運的2016/17年度美棉“長度、強力”等指標持續下滑(中后期花占比大);印度S-6仍處于“質不優，價不廉”狀態，不受中國擁有1%關稅內棉花進口配額紡企的關注，而隨大量的澳棉中期花抵港、裝運(纖維長度普遍1-5/32及以上，斷裂比強度30GPT及以上)，買方開始“發力”;另外，6月下旬以來ICE主力合約持續在66-69美分/磅狹窄空間內波動，SM 1-5/32澳棉CNF報價跌至84-84.20美分/磅(折人民幣一般貿易港口凈重提貨價約14400元/噸，不計1%關稅內配額轉讓、租賃價格)，低于“雙28/雙29”本年度 Xinjiang cotton 2500-3000 yuan / ton.

Recently, some foreign businessmen and institutions analyzed the probability of the Chinese government's resumption of "temporary purchasing and storage" policy in 2017/18, and from the perspective of the supply and demand of high-quality cotton, the significant increase in the global planting area and the price of cotton on the outside, we promptly collected and collected "high-quality, no three silk" machine picked cotton, cotton and cotton. Brazil cotton And Wu cotton is a measure of "killing three birds with one stone". The announcement issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance on the arrangements for the rotation of national cotton reserves (No. ninth in 2016) clearly stated that in order to optimize the quality structure of reserve cotton stocks, a small number of high-quality cotton should be turned into cotton after the rotation of cotton reserves. The turn in time was concentrated on the new cotton market (from September to February of next year).

According to the actual output of cotton reserves in the previous year and the supply and demand situation of the cotton market in the year, the number of round trips will not exceed 30% of the actual annual output in the previous year. " Reserve cotton Digestion is mainly based on the principle of "asymmetric rotation, first round and backward entry, multiple rounds and fewer rounds". Therefore, I believe that in 2018 cotton import quota policy adjustment is not much hope (at least there is no news at present), the government started the purchase and storage in advance, and then came out in March after 2018 to meet the demand for high-quality cotton, so as to achieve precise regulation.

　　那么為什么應該收儲外棉呢?一、內外棉花現貨的價差過大(近3000元/噸)，不利于我國紗線、紡織品服裝等出口;低價收儲外棉后再以相對低的價格拋出，對紡企降成本、提競爭力非常關鍵;二、美棉、澳棉、巴西棉等高品質機采棉銷售已“遍地開花”，越南、印尼、土耳其、印度等國紗廠“來勢洶洶”，留給“單打單干”的中國用棉企業的采購機會并不多;三、經過三年儲備棉輪出銷售，品質稍好的新疆棉已大量輪出，資源逐漸枯竭，如果不及時收儲，2018、2019年輪出的儲備棉很難激發交易商競拍興趣，“去庫存”無望;四、2017/18年度以后中亞棉出口量將大幅減少甚至不再出口(內需大增，棉紗、坯布出口占主導)，中國用棉企業又一條原料渠道被堵死，被迫參與全球資源爭奪，勝負難料。

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