Zheng Cotton Delivery Rules Change New Year Contract And Lose Pportation Premium

Recently, the price difference between Zheng cotton CF1709 and CF1801 has expanded continuously, breaking 600 points.

CF1709 contracts and CF1801 contracts represent cotton for the year and new year respectively.

From the analysis of supply and demand and delivery rules, Zheng cotton will continue to be strong and weak.

From the analysis of the short-term price difference structure, the attraction of Zheng cotton warehouse has been reduced, and the advantage of the reserve cotton price has been highlighted. The turnover rate has increased significantly, which is not conducive to the trend of the CF1709 contract in the near future.

The contract for CF1709 is cotton production in 2016/17, and the CF1801 contract is for cotton production in 2017/18.

Starting from the large supply and demand pattern, cotton supply is loose and price is tight in China outside 2017/18.

Main producers in 2017/18

The output increased to varying degrees, and the increase in consumption was less than the increase in output.

If China continued to strictly control the import quota of cotton in 2018, while the end inventory of China's cotton continued to decrease, the end inventory of the outer cotton would increase, and the domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand would be tight and loose.

In July, the USDA supply and demand forecast showed that the global cotton output increased by 1 million 921 thousand tons to 25 million 118 thousand tons in July, and the global cotton consumption increased by 710 thousand tons to 25 million 480 thousand tons. The end of the world cotton inventory decreased by 337 thousand tons to 19 million 318 thousand tons.

China's cotton ending inventory decreased by 1 million 971 thousand tons to 8 million 567 thousand tons in 2017/18, and the final inventory of the outer cotton increased by 1 million 634 thousand tons to 10 million 751 thousand tons.

In November 2016, Zhengshang announced that the Xinjiang agricultural group north Jiang Nong Jia Le limited liability company, Shihezi Tian Yin Logistics Co., Ltd. and Korla Silver Star Logistics Co., Ltd. were designated as cotton delivery warehouses designated by the Zhengzhou commodity exchange to be designated cotton delivery warehouses, and have been implemented since September 19, 2017.

At the same time, the designated cotton delivery warehouses should be adjusted and upgraded.

The inland cotton delivery warehouse has a premium of 900-000 yuan / ton as "Freight subsidy", and the Xinjiang delivery bank does not set up premium.

The cotton produced and processed in Xinjiang is used for futures delivery. The premium is 200 yuan / ton, and the 200 yuan / ton premium for the production and processing of cotton in Xinjiang is abolished.

Beginning in September 19, 2017, the benchmark Bank of Zheng cotton delivery was in Xinjiang, which is different from the CF1709 contract delivery base in the mainland.

As the main cotton producing area in China, Xinjiang will become the benchmark repository, and the price of zhengmian disk will be lost.

The pportation cost of cotton pportation to the mainland will bring downward pressure on the disk price.

At the same time, Xinjiang cotton lost its origin and raised its price to the plate.

Taking into account the maturity of cotton in Xinjiang, when the fruits and fruits are ripe, pportation pressure is high and freight rates continue to rise, it is estimated that the downward pressure of freight factor on the disk is greater than that of the factors of origin on the support of the disk.

Based on the two reasons of supply and demand and delivery rules,

Or will continue to show near strong, far and weak pattern.

The attractiveness of warehouse receipts and downward pressure on CF1709 contracts.

In the short term, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts continued to decrease, effective forecast in mid July cliff style reduction, short-term support Zheng cotton prices.

However, the high price of Zheng cotton is not conducive to the flow of warehouse receipts. The price advantage of cotton reserves is highlighted. It is estimated that there will be a narrowing of power in the near future.

7 and August were in the critical period of cotton production, paying attention to the impact of weather changes on cotton growth.

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